Bills @ Texans · Week 1

2026 · Week 1 · Sep 13, 17:00 UTC · Reliant Stadium

Bills

13–6 · 9–10 ATS · 10–9 O/U('25)

Texans

13–6 · 10–9 ATS · 7–12 O/U('25)

spread · HOU: +1
total: 44.5
fair ml: 49¢ home
books: 60
open → now: +1.5 → +1

line moved 0.5 toward HOU

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Buffalo Bills	Houston Texans	updated
Pinnaclesharp ref	-105	-107	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Bally Bet	-114	-106	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Bet Right	-111	-111	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betclic (FR)	-118	-114	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
Betfair	-106	-106	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	-106	-106	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	-120	+100	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Paddy Power	-120	+100	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
TAB	-125	+100	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
theScore Bet	-120	+100	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · 1.3

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

player	line	over	under	books
Josh Allen	1.5	+170	-180	5
C.J. Stroud	1.5	+128	-164	4

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

BUFseason form · league percentileHOU

100
off EPA/play
28
59
def EPA/play
100
94
success rate
16
50
pass over expected
62
84
explosive pass rate
47
94
explosive rush rate
16
44
sacks allowed/dropback
75

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	BUF	HOU	BUF	HOU
off EPA/play	.124	-.130	.139	-.032
def EPA/play	-.082	-.231	-.016	-.168
success rate	.505	.405	.488	.411
pass over expected	-3.5	-4.6	-2.7	-.967
explosive pass rate	.047	.041	.057	.044
explosive rush rate	.060	.039	.063	.039
sacks allowed/dropback	.059

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Indoors — Reliant Stadium (closed). Weather is not a factor.

Missing players

BUF

Khalil Shakir · WR (Undisclosed)91 rec, 876 yds; 5 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Keon Coleman · WR (Foot)40 rec, 450 ydsmed impactQuestionable
Tyrell Shavers · WR (Knee - ACL)16 rec, 259 ydsmed impactPUP
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles · LB (Undisclosed)

Polymarket

Bills vs. Texans

bid: 49¢
ask: 50¢
24h vol: $341

Spread: Bills (-1.5)

bid: 45¢
ask: 47¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bills (-2.5)

bid: 44¢
ask: 45¢
24h vol: $45

Spread: Bills (-3.5)

bid: 36¢
ask: 40¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Bills (-4.5)

bid: 32¢
ask: 37¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Bills vs. Texans: O/U 41.5

bid: 58¢
ask: 62¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$57,441
Over$54,566
Texans$25,840
Bills$21,180

order book

Bills

bids

49¢$1,698

48¢$1,800

47¢$1,608

46¢$510

45¢$315

asks

50¢$752

51¢$2,590

52¢$1,989

53¢$2,003

recent trades · 54 captured

Sniveling-Puppybuy Texans 51¢ × 20
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 22
Long-Sundaybuy Bills 50¢ × 3
buy Texans 51¢ × 39
Uncomfortable-Technologist-Oatmealbuy Bills 50¢ × 4
Woozy-Granbuy Texans 51¢ × 4
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 94
Woozy-Granbuy Texans 51¢ × 4
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 111
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 9
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 19
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 10

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

24 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

small sample — read as anecdote, not signal

favourite ats: 11–11
over rate: 58%
avg margin: 2.2
avg total: 47.9

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
WAS @ MIN 2025	-1.5	43.5	+31	31	dog	under
CLE @ NO 2024	-1	44	+21	49	dog	over
NYJ @ ARI 2024	-2	45.5	+25	37	dog	under

Head to head

HOU leads 8–513 meetings since 1999

2025-11-20BUF @ HOU19-23HOU won
2024-10-06BUF @ HOU20-23HOU won
2021-10-03HOU @ BUF0-40BUF won
2020-01-04BUF @ HOU19-22HOU won
2018-10-14BUF @ HOU13-20HOU won
2015-12-06HOU @ BUF21-30BUF won
2014-09-28BUF @ HOU17-23HOU won
2012-11-04BUF @ HOU9-21HOU won

← All games

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

47 books · vig removed

Fair: Texans 49¢ / Bills 51¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

spread · 1

14 books · vig removed

Fair: Texans 51¢ / Bills 49¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

total · 44.5

38 books · vig removed

Fair: Over 50¢ / Under 50¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Zane Durant · DT (Undisclosed)IR

Jude Bowry · OT (Foot)Questionable

Connor McGovern · G (Leg)Questionable

Ty Johnson · RB (Knee)Questionable

Terrel Bernard · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable

Michael Hoecht · DT (Achilles)Questionable

Phidarian Mathis · DL (Suspension)Sus

Dorian Strong · CB (Neck)PUP

HOU

Jayden Higgins · WR (Knee - ACL)50 rec, 623 ydshigh impactIR
Jaylin Noel · WR (Hamstring)26 rec, 292 yds; 12 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
British Brooks · RB (Hand)78 rush ydslow impactQuestionable
Kyonte Hamilton · DL (Undisclosed)IR
Ali Gaye · DE (Knee)IR
Dylan Horton · DL (Achilles)IR
Graham Mertz · QB (Knee - ACL)IR
Ja'Marcus Ingram · CB (Shoulder)IR
Tank Dell · WR (Knee - ACL + MCL)IR
K.C. Ossai · LB (Undisclosed)IR
Marte Mapu · DB (Undisclosed)Questionable
Jake Hansen · LB (Chest)Questionable
Wade Woodaz · LB (Thumb)Questionable
Braden Smith · OL (Foot)Questionable
Jadeveon Clowney · DE (Ankle)Questionable
M.J. Stewart · DB (Undisclosed)PUP
E.J. Speed · LB (Quadriceps)PUP

BUFseason form · league percentileHOU

100
off EPA/play
28
59
def EPA/play
100
94
success rate
16
50
pass over expected
62
84
explosive pass rate
47
94
explosive rush rate
16
44
sacks allowed/dropback
75

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	BUF	HOU	BUF	HOU
off EPA/play	.124	-.130	.139	-.032
def EPA/play	-.082	-.231	-.016	-.168
success rate	.505	.405	.488	.411
pass over expected	-3.5	-4.6	-2.7	-.967
explosive pass rate	.047	.041	.057	.044
explosive rush rate	.060	.039	.063	.039
sacks allowed/dropback	.059

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

latestSep 1 · 1.3

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Bills vs. Texans

bid: 49¢
ask: 50¢
24h vol: $341

Spread: Bills (-1.5)

bid: 45¢
ask: 47¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bills (-2.5)

bid: 44¢
ask: 45¢
24h vol: $45

Spread: Bills (-3.5)

bid: 36¢
ask: 40¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Bills (-4.5)

bid: 32¢
ask: 37¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Bills vs. Texans: O/U 41.5

bid: 58¢
ask: 62¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$57,441
Over$54,566
Texans$25,840
Bills$21,180

order book

Bills

bids

49¢$1,698

48¢$1,800

47¢$1,608

46¢$510

45¢$315

asks

50¢$752

51¢$2,590

52¢$1,989

53¢$2,003

recent trades · 54 captured

Sniveling-Puppybuy Texans 51¢ × 20
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 22
Long-Sundaybuy Bills 50¢ × 3
buy Texans 51¢ × 39
Uncomfortable-Technologist-Oatmealbuy Bills 50¢ × 4
Woozy-Granbuy Texans 51¢ × 4
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 94
Woozy-Granbuy Texans 51¢ × 4
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 111
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 9
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 19
Fake-Bitterbuy Bills 50¢ × 10

Texans

bids

50¢$752

49¢$2,488

48¢$1,836

47¢$1,776

45¢$454

asks

51¢$1,767

52¢$1,950

53¢$1,814

54¢$599

55¢$385