Dislocations · consensus as truth
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Polymarket asks priced below the de-vigged sportsbook consensus at the same line. Ranked by the dollars you could actually fill within 2¢ of the best ask — a 6% edge on $40 of depth is not an opportunity.
- markets
- 25
- fillable ev
- $1,771
Polymarket snapshot · books · refreshes with each ingest, not live
| market | side | kickoff | ask | book fair | books | ev | depth ≤2¢ | fillable ev | settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Giants (-2.5)nfl-nyg-pit-2026-09-13 | Giants -2.5 | 53¢ | 57¢ | 12 | +7.2% | $4,955 | +$356 | matches books | |
| Spread: Saints (+3)nfl-no-la-2026-09-14 | Saints +3 | 34¢ | 36¢ | 6 | +5.7% | $5,689 | +$325 | matches books | |
| Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 47.5nfl-tb-det-2026-09-13 | Under 47.5 | 49¢ | 52¢ | 11 | +6.2% | $3,907 | +$242 | matches books | |
| Spread: Patriots (-1)nfl-car-ne-2026-09-14 | ··· ··· ··· | Pro | |||||||
| Spread: Seahawks (+4)nfl-min-sea-2026-09-13 | ··· ··· ··· | Pro | |||||||
| Bengals vs. Browns: O/U 40.5nfl-cin-cle-2026-09-14 | ··· ··· ··· | Pro | |||||||
| Bears vs. Jaguars: O/U 46nfl-chi-jax-2026-09-14 | ··· ··· ··· | Pro | |||||||
| Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 41nfl-lv-nyj-2026-09-13 | ··· ··· ··· | Pro | |||||||
| Spread: Raiders (+1)nfl-lv-nyj-2026-09-10 | ··· ··· ··· | Pro | |||||||
| Spread: Bengals (-1)nfl-cin-cle-2026-09-14 | ··· ··· ··· | Pro | |||||||
| Saints vs. Rams: O/U 50nfl-no-la-2026-09-14 | ··· ··· ··· | Pro | |||||||
| Broncos vs. Eagles: O/U 45nfl-den-phi-2026-09-13 | ··· ··· ··· | Pro | |||||||
EV = book fair ÷ ask − 1, where book fair is the median de-vigged probability across ≥ 4 sportsbooks quoting the same line. This is the consensus-as-truth rule: +EV by construction if the books are right, no model involved.
Settlement flags mark Polymarket rules that differ from sportsbook settlement. A price can look cheap because it is carrying a resolution risk the books do not.