Cowboys @ Texans · Week 4

2026 · Week 4 · Oct 4, 17:00 UTC · Reliant Stadium

Cowboys

7–9–1 · 7–10 ATS · 13–4 O/U('25)

Texans

13–6 · 10–9 ATS · 7–12 O/U('25)

spread · HOU: -2.5
total: 47.5
fair ml: —
books: 4
open: -2.5 / 47.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Dallas Cowboys	Houston Texans	updated
Betr	+120	-149	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	+130	-170	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	+114	-135	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

Not enough books at a shared line for a consensus yet.

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -2.8

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

DALseason form · league percentileHOU

84
off EPA/play
28
0
def EPA/play
100
88
success rate
16
66
pass over expected
62
72
explosive pass rate
47
31
explosive rush rate
16
88
sacks allowed/dropback
75

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	DAL	HOU	DAL	HOU
off EPA/play	.043	-.130	.096	-.032
def EPA/play	.267	-.231	.170	-.168
success rate	.458	.405	.466	.411
pass over expected	-4.9	-4.6	-.905	-.967
explosive pass rate	.055	.041	.051	.044
explosive rush rate	.049	.039	.042	.039
sacks allowed/dropback	.060

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Indoors — Reliant Stadium (closed). Weather is not a factor.

Missing players

DAL

Devin Moore · CB (Undisclosed)IR
DJ Rogers · TE (Knee)IR
Marist Liufau · LB (Forearm)IR
Matt Hennessy · OL (Neck)IR
Princeton Fant · TE (Knee - ACL + MCL)IR
Tyler Guyton

Polymarket

Cowboys vs. Texans

bid: 36¢
ask: 49¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Texans (-1.5)

bid: 37¢
ask: 80¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Texans (-2.5)

bid: 39¢
ask: 68¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Texans (-3.5)

bid: 32¢
ask: 74¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Texans (-4.5)

bid: 29¢
ask: 71¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Texans (-6.5)

bid: 22¢
ask: 65¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

63 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 28–33–2(46%)
over rate: 57%
avg margin: 1.2
avg total: 50.5

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
IND @ LAC 2025	+2.5	48.5	-14	62	dog	over
WAS @ LAC 2025	+2.5	47.5	-17	37	dog	under
CHI @ LV 2025	+1.5	47.5	-1	49	dog	over

Head to head

DAL leads 4–37 meetings since 1999

2024-11-18HOU @ DAL34-10HOU won
2022-12-11HOU @ DAL23-27DAL won
2018-10-07DAL @ HOU16-19HOU won
2014-10-05HOU @ DAL17-20DAL won
2010-09-26DAL @ HOU27-13DAL won
2006-10-15HOU @ DAL6-34DAL won
2002-09-08DAL @ HOU10-19HOU won

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