Texans @ Colts · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 17:00 UTC · Lucas Oil Stadium

Texans

13–6 · 10–9 ATS · 7–12 O/U('25)

Colts

8–9 · 9–8 ATS · 9–8 O/U('25)

spread · IND: +1.5
total: 45.5
fair ml: 48¢ home
books: 5
open: +1.5 / 45.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	updated
Bet Right	-119	-102	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	-119	-103	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-120	-110	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-122	+102	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Colts 48¢ / Texans 52¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · 1.3

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

HOUseason form · league percentileIND

28
off EPA/play
81
100
def EPA/play
50
16
success rate
75
62
pass over expected
72
47
explosive pass rate
38
16
explosive rush rate
53
75
sacks allowed/dropback
81

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	HOU	IND	HOU	IND
off EPA/play	-.130	-.120	-.032	.074
def EPA/play	-.231	.088	-.168	.000
success rate	.405	.391	.411	.460
pass over expected	-4.6	-6.0	-.967	-.644
explosive pass rate	.041	.026	.044	.043
explosive rush rate	.039	.013	.039	.048
sacks allowed/dropback	.029

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Indoors — Lucas Oil Stadium (closed). Weather is not a factor.

Missing players

HOU

Jayden Higgins · WR (Knee - ACL)50 rec, 623 ydshigh impactIR
Jaylin Noel · WR (Hamstring)26 rec, 292 yds; 12 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
British Brooks · RB (Hand)78 rush ydslow impactQuestionable
Kyonte Hamilton · DL (Undisclosed)

Polymarket

Texans vs. Colts

bid: 46¢
ask: 58¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.5% today

Spread: Texans (-1.5)

bid: 45¢
ask: 66¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.5% today

Spread: Texans (-2.5)

bid: 24¢
ask: 71¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Texans (-3.5)

bid: 39¢
ask: 68¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Texans (-4.5)

bid: 15¢
ask: 65¢
24h vol: —

Texans vs. Colts: O/U 41.5

bid: 32¢
ask: 84¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

169 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total.

favourite ats: 86–81–2(51%)
over rate: 52%
avg margin: -0.5
avg total: 46.2

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
GB @ CHI 2025	-2.5	45.5	+4	58	dog	over
IND @ JAX 2025	-2.5	44.5	+17	55	dog	over
MIA @ CAR 2025	-1.5	44.5	+3	51	dog	over

Head to head

IND leads 33–15 (1 tie)49 meetings since 1999

2026-01-04IND @ HOU30-38HOU won
2025-11-30HOU @ IND20-16HOU won
2024-10-27IND @ HOU20-23HOU won
2024-09-08HOU @ IND29-27HOU won
2024-01-06HOU @ IND23-19HOU won
2023-09-17IND @ HOU31-20IND won
2023-01-08HOU @ IND32-31HOU won
2022-09-11IND @ HOU20-20tie

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