Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
Dillius
0xed88d69d689f3e2f6d1f77b2e35d089c581df3c4 · Lazy-Eagle·Sep 21, 2025 → Nov 16, 2025·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 20
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- −0.4%
- 95% CI −0.9% to +0.1%
- p-value
- 0.925
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
−0.5%
95% CI −1.6% to +0.3%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
−0.4%
95% CI −0.9% to +0.1%
89 of 97 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.1%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
97
positions
$30,166,312
staked
$29,583,925
volume
−$3,825,053
realised pnl
−12.7%
roi
0
open positions
97
settled positions
$1,397,537
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 86 | −0.3% | 0.3% | −10.4% | no |
| spreads | 3 | −1.9% | 2.0% | −16.8% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 97. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 21:20 UTC | Ravens vs. Browns2025_11_BAL_CLE | Browns | 21¢ | $96,972 | 22¢ | 21¢ | +3.1% | −2.3% | 0h | lost −$96,972 |
| Nov 16, 21:19 UTC | Chiefs vs. Broncos2025_11_KC_DEN | Broncos | 35¢ | $135,570 | 34¢ | 34¢ | −1.0% | −3.3% | 0h | won +$255,710 |
| Nov 16, 15:15 UTC | Texans vs. Titans2025_11_HOU_TEN | Texans | 70¢ | $1,397,537 | 69¢ | 70¢ | −1.1% | −0.7% | 3h | won +$598,945 |
| Nov 13, 22:49 UTC | Jets vs. Patriots2025_11_NYJ_NE | Jets | 15¢ | $99,788 | 14¢ | 14¢ | −2.9% | −1.4% | 2h | lost −$99,788 |
| Nov 10, 18:42 UTC | Eagles vs. Packers2025_10_PHI_GB | Packers | 50¢ | $456,781 | 50¢ | 51¢ | +0.8% | +1.8% | 7h | lost −$456,781 |
| Nov 9, 20:52 UTC | Spread: Rams (-6.5)2025_10_LA_SF | Rams -6.5 | 48¢ | $82,672 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | +1.0% | 1h | won +$89,561 |
| Nov 9, 20:51 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)2025_10_ARI_SEA | Seahawks -6.5 | 56¢ | $62,933 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | −0.2% | 0h | won +$50,210 |
| Nov 9, 20:51 UTC | Rams vs. 49ers2025_10_LA_SF | Rams | 71¢ | $74,550 | 70¢ | 71¢ | −1.6% | 0.0% | 1h | won +$30,450 |
| Nov 9, 19:53 UTC | Steelers vs. Chargers2025_10_PIT_LAC | Chargers | 60¢ | $6,558 | 63¢ | 64¢ | +4.5% | +5.8% | 5h | won +$4,372 |
| Nov 9, 19:53 UTC | Rams vs. 49ers2025_10_LA_SF | 49ers | 29¢ | $30,450 | 30¢ | 29¢ | +4.0% | 0.0% | 2h | lost −$30,450 |
| Nov 9, 19:53 UTC | Lions vs. Commanders2025_10_DET_WAS | Commanders | 23¢ | $103,218 | 22¢ | 23¢ | −4.1% | −0.4% | 2h | lost −$103,218 |
| Nov 9, 16:55 UTC | Jaguars vs. Texans2025_10_JAX_HOU | Texans | 52¢ | $96,309 | 50¢ | 54¢ | −2.9% | +3.4% | 1h | won +$89,862 |
| Nov 9, 16:51 UTC | Bills vs. Dolphins2025_10_BUF_MIA | Bills | 78¢ | $151,100 | 78¢ | 79¢ | +0.2% | +0.7% | 1h | lost −$151,100 |
| Nov 9, 16:48 UTC | Giants vs. Bears2025_10_NYG_CHI | Giants | 34¢ | $279,670 | 34¢ | 34¢ | −0.9% | −1.3% | 1h | lost −$279,670 |
| Nov 9, 16:48 UTC | Saints vs. Panthers2025_10_NO_CAR | Saints | 32¢ | $127,210 | 32¢ | 33¢ | −1.3% | +1.6% | 1h | won +$270,322 |
| Nov 6, 17:19 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-8.5)2025_10_LV_DEN | Broncos -8.5 | 53¢ | $304,181 | 50¢ | 50¢ | −5.7% | −5.7% | 8h | lost −$304,181 |
| Nov 2, 21:29 UTC | Seahawks vs. Commanders2025_09_SEA_WAS | Seahawks | 58¢ | $751,239 | 57¢ | 57¢ | −1.1% | −0.6% | 4h | won +$547,449 |
| Nov 2, 21:23 UTC | Chiefs vs. Bills2025_09_KC_BUF | Chiefs | 55¢ | $10,852 | 55¢ | 56¢ | +0.8% | +0.9% | 0h | lost −$10,852 |
| Nov 2, 20:20 UTC | Jaguars vs. Raiders2025_09_JAX_LV | Jaguars | 54¢ | $10,942 | 54¢ | 56¢ | −0.1% | +2.1% | 1h | won +$9,197 |
| Nov 2, 19:30 UTC | Chiefs vs. Bills2025_09_KC_BUF | Bills | 44¢ | $317,062 | 45¢ | 45¢ | +1.3% | +1.1% | 2h | won +$403,533 |
| Nov 2, 17:06 UTC | 49ers vs. Giants2025_09_SF_NYG | Giants | 44¢ | $294,319 | 44¢ | 46¢ | −1.0% | +3.4% | 1h | lost −$294,319 |
| Nov 2, 17:05 UTC | Vikings vs. Lions2025_09_MIN_DET | Lions | 81¢ | $647,015 | 80¢ | 81¢ | −0.3% | −0.2% | 1h | lost −$647,015 |
| Nov 2, 17:02 UTC | Falcons vs. Patriots2025_09_ATL_NE | Patriots | 68¢ | $50,000 | 68¢ | 70¢ | −0.9% | +1.6% | 1h | won +$23,088 |
| Nov 2, 17:01 UTC | Chargers vs. Titans2025_09_LAC_TEN | Chargers | 82¢ | $576,598 | 81¢ | 82¢ | −1.4% | −0.9% | 1h | won +$124,861 |
| Nov 2, 16:58 UTC | Bears vs. Bengals2025_09_CHI_CIN | Bengals | 42¢ | $201,208 | 41¢ | 42¢ | −0.7% | −0.0% | 1h | lost −$201,208 |
Grade another wallet