Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
gmanas
0xe90bec87d9ef430f27f9dcfe72c34b76967d5da2 · Wicked-Rap·Nov 23, 2025 → Feb 9, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 100
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +1.9%
- 95% CI +1.3% to +2.6%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+1.2%
95% CI +0.6% to +1.9%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+1.9%
95% CI +1.3% to +2.6%
103 of 140 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.7%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
140
positions
$8,916,356
staked
$8,378,709
volume
+$482,354
realised pnl
+5.4%
roi
0
open positions
140
settled positions
$1,056,380
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 75 | +1.7% | 0.4% | −5.4% | yes |
| spreads | 19 | +2.2% | 0.7% | −10.7% | n<30 |
| totals | 9 | +2.5% | 0.8% | +43.9% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 140. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 23:31 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Under 45.5 | 51¢ | $34,152 | 51¢ | 52¢ | +0.2% | +1.0% | 0h | won +$32,813 |
| Feb 8, 23:11 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Over 45.5 | 47¢ | $3,999 | 49¢ | 49¢ | +4.1% | +3.2% | 0h | lost −$3,999 |
| Feb 8, 23:01 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -5.5 | 52¢ | $7,093 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.0% | 1h | lost −$7,093 |
| Feb 8, 20:07 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots | 32¢ | $1,056,380 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +3.4% | +1.6% | 4h | lost −$1,056,380 |
| Jan 25, 23:39 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.52025_21_LA_SEA | Over 45.5 | 50¢ | $99,258 | 51¢ | 51¢ | +1.7% | +1.0% | 0h | won +$99,258 |
| Jan 25, 23:32 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks2025_21_LA_SEA | Rams | 44¢ | $112,444 | 44¢ | 45¢ | −0.4% | +1.1% | 0h | lost −$112,444 |
| Jan 25, 23:23 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks2025_21_LA_SEA | Seahawks | 55¢ | $220,000 | 56¢ | 56¢ | +2.2% | +0.9% | 0h | won +$180,000 |
| Jan 25, 19:59 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-5.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos -5.5 | 58¢ | $21,441 | no consensus | 59¢ | — | +0.9% | 0h | won +$15,526 |
| Jan 25, 19:59 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-4.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos -4.5 | 55¢ | $17,295 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +0.9% | 0h | won +$14,150 |
| Jan 25, 19:56 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots -3.5 | 48¢ | $325,339 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +3.6% | +0.5% | 0h | lost −$325,339 |
| Jan 25, 19:03 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos | 34¢ | $135,999 | 35¢ | 36¢ | +2.8% | +4.4% | 1h | lost −$135,999 |
| Jan 25, 17:49 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots | 65¢ | $195,000 | 65¢ | 65¢ | +0.1% | −0.8% | 2h | won +$105,000 |
| Jan 18, 23:30 UTC | Rams vs. Bears2025_20_LA_CHI | Rams | 65¢ | $61,837 | 64¢ | 65¢ | −1.1% | −0.8% | 0h | won +$33,297 |
| Jan 18, 23:30 UTC | Spread: Rams (-3.5)2025_20_LA_CHI | Bears -3.5 | 48¢ | $16,067 | 49¢ | 50¢ | +2.6% | +3.4% | 0h | won +$17,496 |
| Jan 18, 23:26 UTC | Rams vs. Bears2025_20_LA_CHI | Bears | 33¢ | $106,642 | 36¢ | 36¢ | +6.6% | +6.0% | 0h | lost −$106,642 |
| Jan 18, 20:00 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots2025_20_HOU_NE | Texans | 36¢ | $24,115 | 38¢ | 37¢ | +5.4% | +1.4% | 0h | lost −$24,115 |
| Jan 18, 19:33 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_20_HOU_NE | Texans -3.5 | 51¢ | $78,280 | 52¢ | 51¢ | +2.5% | −0.4% | 1h | lost −$78,280 |
| Jan 17, 19:49 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Broncos | 53¢ | $113,950 | 52¢ | 54¢ | −1.1% | +0.9% | 2h | won +$101,050 |
| Jan 15, 04:07 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Bills | 48¢ | $48,000 | 48¢ | 47¢ | −0.9% | −3.1% | 65h | lost −$48,000 |
| Jan 14, 21:21 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-1.5)2025_20_BUF_DEN | Broncos -1.5 | 50¢ | $3,950 | 50¢ | 50¢ | 0.0% | −1.0% | 72h | won +$3,950 |
| Jan 12, 01:06 UTC | Chargers vs. Patriots2025_19_LAC_NE | Patriots | 64¢ | $7,682 | 63¢ | 65¢ | −1.2% | +0.8% | 0h | won +$4,321 |
| Jan 12, 01:03 UTC | Chargers vs. Patriots2025_19_LAC_NE | Chargers | 34¢ | $27,846 | 37¢ | 36¢ | +8.2% | +4.4% | 0h | lost −$27,846 |
| Jan 11, 20:08 UTC | 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 44.52025_19_SF_PHI | Over 44.5 | 48¢ | $48,000 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +4.2% | +1.0% | 1h | lost −$48,000 |
| Jan 11, 17:59 UTC | Spread: Bills (-3.5)2025_19_BUF_JAX | Jaguars -3.5 | 66¢ | $26 | no consensus | 67¢ | — | +0.8% | 0h | won +$14 |
| Jan 11, 17:35 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars2025_19_BUF_JAX | Bills | 46¢ | $91,935 | 47¢ | 45¢ | +1.6% | −2.2% | 1h | won +$107,924 |
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