Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
supersportsbro
0xdf2e12c6a53671d0b08f29d0391728097029ddec · Obedient-Military·Sep 1, 2025 → Oct 6, 2025·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 99
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +2.3%
- 95% CI +1.3% to +3.4%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+4.2%
95% CI +2.4% to +6.7%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+2.3%
95% CI +1.3% to +3.4%
148 of 370 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+1.9%
Part of the Polymarket-close CLV is venue drift: Polymarket closing later than the books. The sportsbook number is the one that survives.
370
positions
$4,920,948
staked
$4,917,793
volume
−$579,724
realised pnl
−11.8%
roi
0
open positions
370
settled positions
$396,962
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 116 | +2.2% | 0.6% | −13.4% | yes |
| spreads | 20 | +3.8% | 1.7% | −95.9% | n<30 |
| totals | 12 | +1.3% | 1.4% | −72.2% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 370. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 15:10 UTC | Chargers vs. Dolphins2025_06_LAC_MIA | Dolphins | 33¢ | $1,601 | 37¢ | 38¢ | +12.1% | +13.6% | 146h | lost −$1,601 |
| Oct 6, 12:48 UTC | Bengals vs. Packers2025_06_CIN_GB | Bengals | 9¢ | $0 | 12¢ | 12¢ | +33.3% | +27.8% | 152h | lost −$0 |
| Oct 6, 05:13 UTC | Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)2025_05_KC_JAX | Jaguars -3.5 | 24¢ | $6 | no consensus | 26¢ | — | +6.3% | 19h | lost −$6 |
| Oct 6, 04:12 UTC | Browns vs. Steelers2025_06_CLE_PIT | Browns | 30¢ | $3,000 | 28¢ | 27¢ | −6.7% | −11.7% | 157h | lost −$3,000 |
| Oct 6, 04:11 UTC | Broncos vs. Jets2025_06_DEN_NYJ | Jets | 22¢ | $2,200 | 24¢ | 24¢ | +9.3% | +6.8% | 153h | lost −$2,200 |
| Oct 6, 03:46 UTC | Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 52.52025_05_KC_JAX | Over 52.5 | 28¢ | $10 | no consensus | 31¢ | — | +8.9% | 21h | won +$24 |
| Oct 6, 02:18 UTC | Cowboys vs. Panthers2025_06_DAL_CAR | Panthers | 36¢ | $551 | 41¢ | 42¢ | +13.6% | +15.3% | 159h | won +$980 |
| Oct 5, 23:28 UTC | Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 49.52025_05_NE_BUF | Under 49.5 | 51¢ | $696 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −2.5% | −0.6% | 1h | won +$661 |
| Oct 5, 23:28 UTC | Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)2025_05_KC_JAX | Chiefs -3.5 | 72¢ | $351 | no consensus | 75¢ | — | +3.5% | 25h | won +$137 |
| Oct 5, 23:10 UTC | Eagles vs. Giants2025_06_PHI_NYG | Giants | 22¢ | $2,690 | 22¢ | 23¢ | +1.6% | +2.3% | 97h | won +$9,537 |
| Oct 5, 23:09 UTC | Chiefs vs. Jaguars2025_05_KC_JAX | Jaguars | 36¢ | $328 | 36¢ | 37¢ | +0.9% | +1.4% | 25h | won +$584 |
| Oct 5, 22:04 UTC | Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 52.52025_05_KC_JAX | Under 52.5 | 68¢ | $72 | no consensus | 70¢ | — | +2.2% | 26h | lost −$72 |
| Oct 5, 20:25 UTC | Commanders vs. Chargers2025_05_WAS_LAC | Chargers | 62¢ | $760 | 60¢ | 62¢ | −3.8% | −0.8% | 0h | lost −$760 |
| Oct 5, 20:25 UTC | Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 46.52025_05_WAS_LAC | Over 46.5 | 56¢ | $6 | no consensus | 55¢ | — | −2.7% | 0h | lost −$6 |
| Oct 5, 20:24 UTC | Spread: Chargers (-4.5)2025_05_WAS_LAC | Chargers -4.5 | 43¢ | $1,802 | no consensus | 42¢ | — | −2.3% | 0h | lost −$1,802 |
| Oct 5, 20:03 UTC | Buccaneers vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.52025_05_TB_SEA | Over 42.5 | 58¢ | $1 | no consensus | 57¢ | — | −1.7% | 0h | won +$1 |
| Oct 5, 19:06 UTC | Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 47.52025_05_WAS_LAC | Under 47.5 | 49¢ | $4 | no consensus | 50¢ | — | +1.0% | 1h | won +$4 |
| Oct 5, 16:59 UTC | Titans vs. Cardinals2025_05_TEN_ARI | Cardinals | 79¢ | $257,883 | 78¢ | 79¢ | −1.2% | −0.6% | 3h | lost −$257,883 |
| Oct 5, 16:58 UTC | Texans vs. Ravens: O/U 40.52025_05_HOU_BAL | Under 40.5 | 44¢ | $1 | no consensus | 50¢ | — | +13.6% | 0h | lost −$1 |
| Oct 5, 16:53 UTC | Spread: Jets (-3.5)2025_05_DAL_NYJ | Jets -3.5 | 38¢ | $3,800 | no consensus | 40¢ | — | +4.0% | 0h | lost −$3,800 |
| Oct 5, 16:52 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-1.5)2025_05_DEN_PHI | Broncos -1.5 | 35¢ | $532 | no consensus | 37¢ | — | +5.7% | 0h | won +$987 |
| Oct 5, 16:46 UTC | Spread: Colts (-3.5)2025_05_LV_IND | Raiders -3.5 | 35¢ | $1,750 | no consensus | 36¢ | — | +1.4% | 0h | lost −$1,750 |
| Oct 5, 16:43 UTC | Raiders vs. Colts: O/U 47.52025_05_LV_IND | Under 47.5 | 51¢ | $281 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +2.9% | 0h | won +$270 |
| Oct 5, 16:43 UTC | Spread: Saints (-1.5)2025_05_NYG_NO | Saints -1.5 | 52¢ | $4,951 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.0% | 0h | won +$4,570 |
| Oct 5, 16:24 UTC | Texans vs. Ravens: O/U 40.52025_05_HOU_BAL | Over 40.5 | 53¢ | $13,938 | no consensus | 50¢ | — | −5.1% | 1h | won +$12,532 |
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