Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
432614799197
0xdc876e6873772d38716fda7f2452a78d426d7ab6 · Sorrowful-Shallows·Jan 7, 2026 → Feb 9, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 99
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +1.8%
- 95% CI +1.0% to +2.7%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- reached
- at this rate, 65 total
vs Polymarket close
+2.1%
95% CI +1.5% to +2.8%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+1.8%
95% CI +1.0% to +2.7%
35 of 91 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+0.2%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
91
positions
$9,334,823
staked
$9,334,823
volume
+$3,707,402
realised pnl
+39.7%
roi
0
open positions
91
settled positions
$1,076,620
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 16 | +2.0% | 0.4% | +44.6% | n<30 |
| spreads | 10 | +2.0% | 0.6% | +40.6% | n<30 |
| totals | 9 | +1.3% | 1.4% | +15.8% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 91. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 06:37 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Under 45.5 | 50¢ | $363 | 51¢ | 52¢ | +2.2% | +3.0% | 233h | won +$363 |
| Jan 26, 18:00 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.52025_22_SEA_NE | Under 46.5 | 53¢ | $72,622 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +4.5% | 318h | won +$64,048 |
| Jan 26, 16:19 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks -4.5 | 49¢ | $100,918 | 50¢ | 51¢ | +2.0% | +3.1% | 319h | won +$105,037 |
| Jan 26, 16:09 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -4.5 | 49¢ | $784,378 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +1.4% | +0.4% | 319h | lost −$784,378 |
| Jan 26, 06:05 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -5.5 | 52¢ | $240,901 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.0% | 330h | lost −$240,901 |
| Jan 26, 03:30 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks | 66¢ | $117 | 67¢ | 68¢ | +1.4% | +2.3% | 332h | won +$60 |
| Jan 26, 03:30 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots | 32¢ | $193,130 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +4.9% | +2.9% | 332h | lost −$193,130 |
| Jan 25, 19:58 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots -3.5 | 48¢ | $124,749 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +4.2% | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$124,749 |
| Jan 25, 19:02 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.52025_21_NE_DEN | Over 42.5 | 51¢ | $79,352 | no consensus | 51¢ | — | −1.0% | 1h | lost −$79,352 |
| Jan 25, 18:40 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.52025_21_LA_SEA | Under 45.5 | 48¢ | $943 | 49¢ | 50¢ | +2.4% | +3.1% | 5h | lost −$943 |
| Jan 25, 18:27 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 43.52025_21_NE_DEN | Over 43.5 | 47¢ | $8,449 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | −2.1% | 2h | lost −$8,449 |
| Jan 25, 00:23 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.52025_21_NE_DEN | Under 42.5 | 48¢ | $20,067 | no consensus | 50¢ | — | +3.1% | 20h | won +$21,739 |
| Jan 24, 22:13 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)2025_21_LA_SEA | Seahawks -2.5 | 50¢ | $693,494 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +0.9% | −0.1% | 25h | won +$705,864 |
| Jan 24, 15:43 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)2025_21_LA_SEA | Seahawks -3.5 | 40¢ | $41,387 | no consensus | 41¢ | — | +0.5% | 32h | won +$61,313 |
| Jan 24, 15:36 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 47.52025_21_LA_SEA | Under 47.5 | 57¢ | $14,471 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | −0.3% | 32h | lost −$14,471 |
| Jan 24, 14:53 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos | 34¢ | $138,564 | 35¢ | 36¢ | +2.9% | +4.5% | 29h | lost −$138,564 |
| Jan 24, 13:11 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.52025_21_LA_SEA | Under 46.5 | 53¢ | $63,369 | no consensus | 54¢ | — | +1.6% | 35h | lost −$63,369 |
| Jan 22, 20:43 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-5.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos -5.5 | 54¢ | $63,226 | no consensus | 59¢ | — | +8.3% | 71h | won +$53,798 |
| Jan 22, 20:29 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-4.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos -4.5 | 53¢ | $55,054 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +3.9% | 72h | won +$48,043 |
| Jan 18, 18:59 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_20_HOU_NE | Texans -3.5 | 51¢ | $99,965 | 52¢ | 51¢ | +1.9% | −1.0% | 1h | lost −$99,965 |
| Jan 18, 18:46 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.52025_20_HOU_NE | Under 41.5 | 52¢ | $54,894 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.0% | 1h | lost −$54,894 |
| Jan 18, 06:42 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.52025_20_HOU_NE | Over 41.5 | 45¢ | $1,493 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +5.6% | 13h | won +$1,824 |
| Jan 17, 23:34 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)2025_20_SF_SEA | 49ers -7.5 | 54¢ | $15,479 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +3.0% | 1h | lost −$15,479 |
| Jan 17, 21:30 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-1.5)2025_20_BUF_DEN | Bills -1.5 | 47¢ | $94 | 50¢ | 51¢ | +6.4% | +7.4% | 0h | lost −$94 |
| Jan 17, 20:43 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Bills | 46¢ | $25,920 | 48¢ | 47¢ | +3.4% | +1.1% | 1h | lost −$25,920 |
Grade another wallet