Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
primm
0xd38b71f3e8ed1af71983e5c309eac3dfa9b35029 · Careful-Gazebo·Sep 4, 2025 → Jan 25, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 93
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +0.9%
- 95% CI +0.2% to +1.6%
- p-value
- 0.004
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+0.9%
95% CI +0.0% to +2.0%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+0.9%
95% CI +0.2% to +1.6%
126 of 196 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+0.0%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
196
positions
$6,328,592
staked
$6,328,592
volume
+$2,143,781
realised pnl
+33.9%
roi
0
open positions
196
settled positions
$277,720
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 92 | +1.3% | 0.5% | +48.2% | yes |
| totals | 17 | −0.6% | 0.4% | −39.5% | n<30 |
| spreads | 17 | +0.5% | 0.5% | +14.9% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 196. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 14:42 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks2025_21_LA_SEA | Rams | 44¢ | $58,001 | 44¢ | 45¢ | −0.4% | +1.1% | 9h | lost −$58,001 |
| Jan 23, 19:59 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos | 33¢ | $99,147 | 35¢ | 36¢ | +4.5% | +6.2% | 48h | lost −$99,147 |
| Jan 18, 17:16 UTC | Spread: Rams (-3.5)2025_20_LA_CHI | Rams -3.5 | 51¢ | $102,863 | 51¢ | 51¢ | −0.2% | −1.0% | 6h | lost −$102,863 |
| Jan 18, 15:28 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.52025_20_HOU_NE | Over 41.5 | 47¢ | $64,708 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +1.1% | 5h | won +$72,968 |
| Jan 17, 14:53 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)2025_20_SF_SEA | Seahawks -7.5 | 48¢ | $53,239 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −6.7% | 10h | won +$58,370 |
| Jan 17, 14:47 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Broncos | 53¢ | $54,253 | 52¢ | 54¢ | −1.1% | +0.9% | 7h | won +$48,111 |
| Jan 11, 17:39 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars2025_19_BUF_JAX | Bills | 46¢ | $5,180 | 47¢ | 45¢ | +1.6% | −2.2% | 0h | won +$6,081 |
| Jan 11, 16:05 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-4.5)2025_19_SF_PHI | 49ers -4.5 | 47¢ | $49,532 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | +3.3% | 5h | won +$55,931 |
| Jan 11, 15:49 UTC | Texans vs. Steelers2025_19_HOU_PIT | Steelers | 41¢ | $8,996 | 41¢ | 42¢ | +1.0% | +1.2% | 33h | lost −$8,996 |
| Jan 11, 15:39 UTC | Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.52025_19_LAC_NE | Over 46.5 | 47¢ | $23,795 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −5.3% | 10h | lost −$23,795 |
| Jan 10, 22:09 UTC | Chargers vs. Patriots2025_19_LAC_NE | Chargers | 36¢ | $35,799 | 37¢ | 36¢ | +3.6% | 0.0% | 27h | lost −$35,799 |
| Jan 10, 22:08 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_19_LAC_NE | Chargers -3.5 | 50¢ | $50,704 | 50¢ | 50¢ | −0.0% | −1.9% | 27h | lost −$50,704 |
| Jan 10, 20:08 UTC | Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.52025_19_GB_CHI | Over 44.5 | 56¢ | $19,702 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | −0.9% | 5h | won +$15,473 |
| Jan 10, 20:07 UTC | Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 46.52025_19_LA_CAR | Over 46.5 | 44¢ | $15,324 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | −1.1% | 1h | won +$19,503 |
| Jan 10, 20:06 UTC | Spread: Rams (-10.5)2025_19_LA_CAR | Rams -10.5 | 47¢ | $28,200 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +1.1% | 1h | lost −$28,200 |
| Jan 10, 19:13 UTC | Packers vs. Bears2025_19_GB_CHI | Packers | 55¢ | $225,995 | 54¢ | 55¢ | −1.3% | −0.9% | 6h | lost −$225,995 |
| Jan 5, 01:21 UTC | Ravens vs. Steelers2025_18_BAL_PIT | Steelers | 32¢ | $24,255 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +3.0% | +1.6% | 0h | won +$51,543 |
| Jan 4, 21:10 UTC | Chiefs vs. Raiders2025_18_KC_LV | Raiders | 36¢ | $30,760 | 35¢ | 36¢ | −1.8% | −1.4% | 0h | won +$54,685 |
| Jan 4, 20:56 UTC | Spread: Bears (-3.5)2025_18_DET_CHI | Bears -3.5 | 48¢ | $7,449 | 49¢ | 49¢ | +1.9% | +1.0% | 1h | lost −$7,449 |
| Jan 4, 20:22 UTC | Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_18_MIA_NE | Under 45.5 | 52¢ | $11,862 | no consensus | 55¢ | — | +4.8% | 1h | lost −$11,862 |
| Jan 4, 17:29 UTC | Spread: Ravens (-3.5)2025_18_BAL_PIT | Ravens -3.5 | 50¢ | $97,586 | no consensus | 55¢ | — | +9.0% | 8h | lost −$97,586 |
| Jan 4, 16:30 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-4.5)2025_18_WAS_PHI | Eagles -4.5 | 44¢ | $8,104 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | +1.0% | 5h | lost −$8,104 |
| Jan 4, 16:21 UTC | Spread: Bengals (-7.5)2025_18_CLE_CIN | Browns -7.5 | 46¢ | $10,683 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −2.1% | 2h | won +$12,563 |
| Jan 4, 15:42 UTC | Spread: Falcons (-3.5)2025_18_NO_ATL | Falcons -3.5 | 49¢ | $3,539 | no consensus | 52¢ | — | +5.1% | 2h | lost −$3,539 |
| Jan 4, 15:22 UTC | Lions vs. Bears2025_18_DET_CHI | Bears | 64¢ | $4,027 | 62¢ | 63¢ | −3.7% | −2.3% | 6h | lost −$4,027 |
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