Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
wasianiversonworldchamp2025
0xb744f56635b537e859152d14b022af5afe485210 · Shameless-Poet·Oct 19, 2025 → Dec 22, 2025·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 84
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +0.4%
- 95% CI −0.1% to +0.8%
- p-value
- 0.045
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+0.0%
95% CI −0.4% to +0.5%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+0.4%
95% CI −0.1% to +0.8%
166 of 218 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.4%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
218
positions
$42,366,652
staked
$38,934,392
volume
−$2,282,037
realised pnl
−5.4%
roi
0
open positions
218
settled positions
$1,531,012
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 125 | +0.6% | 0.3% | −4.8% | yes |
| spreads | 41 | −0.4% | 0.4% | −9.3% | no |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 218. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 22:24 UTC | Spread: 49ers (-6.5)2025_16_SF_IND | Colts -6.5 | 57¢ | $401,490 | no consensus | 57¢ | — | +0.9% | 3h | lost −$401,490 |
| Dec 22, 21:15 UTC | 49ers vs. Colts2025_16_SF_IND | Colts | 32¢ | $136,919 | 34¢ | 34¢ | +5.6% | +4.5% | 4h | lost −$136,919 |
| Dec 22, 01:09 UTC | Spread: Ravens (-3.5)2025_16_NE_BAL | Ravens -3.5 | 51¢ | $21,066 | 50¢ | 52¢ | −1.8% | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$21,066 |
| Dec 22, 01:03 UTC | Spread: Ravens (-2.5)2025_16_NE_BAL | Ravens -2.5 | 60¢ | $835 | no consensus | 61¢ | — | +0.8% | 0h | lost −$835 |
| Dec 22, 00:56 UTC | Patriots vs. Ravens2025_16_NE_BAL | Patriots | 36¢ | $23,711 | 36¢ | 36¢ | −0.1% | −1.4% | 0h | won +$42,154 |
| Dec 22, 00:55 UTC | Patriots vs. Ravens2025_16_NE_BAL | Ravens | 65¢ | $1,330,037 | 64¢ | 65¢ | −1.4% | −0.7% | 0h | lost −$1,330,037 |
| Dec 21, 21:15 UTC | Spread: Lions (-7.5)2025_16_PIT_DET | Lions -7.5 | 50¢ | $10,971 | 50¢ | 51¢ | 0.0% | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$10,971 |
| Dec 21, 21:15 UTC | Raiders vs. Texans2025_16_LV_HOU | Raiders | 10¢ | $28,167 | 11¢ | 11¢ | +4.2% | +1.9% | 0h | lost −$28,167 |
| Dec 21, 21:14 UTC | Steelers vs. Lions2025_16_PIT_DET | Lions | 77¢ | $538,927 | 77¢ | 78¢ | +0.1% | +0.7% | 0h | lost −$538,927 |
| Dec 21, 21:04 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-3.5)2025_16_JAX_DEN | Broncos -3.5 | 48¢ | $2,553 | 49¢ | 49¢ | +1.9% | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$2,553 |
| Dec 21, 20:31 UTC | Spread: Falcons (-2.5)2025_16_ATL_ARI | Cardinals -2.5 | 49¢ | $190,420 | 49¢ | 50¢ | −0.0% | +1.0% | 1h | lost −$190,420 |
| Dec 21, 20:31 UTC | Falcons vs. Cardinals2025_16_ATL_ARI | Cardinals | 43¢ | $188,940 | 43¢ | 44¢ | −0.5% | +1.2% | 1h | lost −$188,940 |
| Dec 21, 17:59 UTC | Bills vs. Browns2025_16_BUF_CLE | Browns | 18¢ | $24,780 | 18¢ | 19¢ | −1.0% | +2.8% | 0h | lost −$24,780 |
| Dec 15, 22:29 UTC | Spread: Steelers (-3.5)2025_15_MIA_PIT | Dolphins -3.5 | 52¢ | $193,431 | 51¢ | 52¢ | −1.8% | −1.0% | 3h | lost −$193,431 |
| Dec 15, 22:28 UTC | Dolphins vs. Steelers2025_15_MIA_PIT | Dolphins | 37¢ | $98,342 | 38¢ | 37¢ | +1.9% | −1.4% | 3h | lost −$98,342 |
| Dec 15, 21:35 UTC | Dolphins vs. Steelers2025_15_MIA_PIT | Steelers | 63¢ | $699,415 | 62¢ | 64¢ | −1.6% | +0.3% | 4h | won +$405,503 |
| Dec 15, 21:34 UTC | Spread: Steelers (-3.5)2025_15_MIA_PIT | Steelers -3.5 | 48¢ | $841,701 | 49¢ | 49¢ | +1.1% | +0.2% | 4h | won +$897,639 |
| Dec 15, 00:58 UTC | Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)2025_15_MIN_DAL | Vikings -5.5 | 52¢ | $505,756 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +0.7% | 0h | won +$464,489 |
| Dec 14, 22:40 UTC | Vikings vs. Cowboys2025_15_MIN_DAL | Cowboys | 68¢ | $32,019 | 68¢ | 69¢ | −0.2% | +0.6% | 3h | lost −$32,019 |
| Dec 14, 22:06 UTC | Vikings vs. Cowboys2025_15_MIN_DAL | Vikings | 31¢ | $123,349 | 32¢ | 32¢ | +1.9% | +0.1% | 3h | won +$268,540 |
| Dec 14, 21:22 UTC | Spread: Packers (-1.5)2025_15_GB_DEN | Packers -1.5 | 49¢ | $9,912 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +1.2% | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$9,912 |
| Dec 14, 21:20 UTC | Lions vs. Rams2025_15_DET_LA | Lions | 31¢ | $926 | 31¢ | 31¢ | −0.4% | −1.6% | 0h | lost −$926 |
| Dec 14, 21:14 UTC | Titans vs. 49ers2025_15_TEN_SF | Titans | 13¢ | $18,531 | 14¢ | 13¢ | +5.4% | −3.9% | 0h | lost −$18,531 |
| Dec 14, 21:12 UTC | Colts vs. Seahawks2025_15_IND_SEA | Colts | 15¢ | $38,405 | 15¢ | 14¢ | −1.6% | −10.0% | 0h | lost −$38,405 |
| Dec 14, 20:35 UTC | Lions vs. Rams2025_15_DET_LA | Rams | 69¢ | $2,060 | 69¢ | 70¢ | +0.2% | +0.7% | 1h | won +$926 |
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