Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
SammySledge
0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b · Elated-Bee·Sep 4, 2025 → Feb 9, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 99
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +1.3%
- 95% CI +0.7% to +1.9%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+2.0%
95% CI +1.0% to +3.3%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+1.3%
95% CI +0.7% to +1.9%
153 of 199 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+0.8%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
199
positions
$8,301,440
staked
$7,582,291
volume
+$140,151
realised pnl
+1.7%
roi
0
open positions
199
settled positions
$334,998
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 114 | +1.5% | 0.4% | +3.6% | yes |
| spreads | 31 | +0.6% | 0.5% | −25.5% | no |
| totals | 8 | +0.8% | 0.6% | +53.1% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 199. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 23:06 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots | 32¢ | $95,999 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +3.4% | +1.6% | 1h | lost −$95,999 |
| Feb 8, 21:38 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks | 67¢ | $334,998 | 67¢ | 68¢ | −0.1% | +0.8% | 2h | won +$164,999 |
| Feb 8, 20:14 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -5.5 | 53¢ | $52,560 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | −0.1% | 3h | lost −$52,560 |
| Feb 8, 18:58 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -4.5 | 49¢ | $73,714 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +2.0% | +1.0% | 5h | lost −$73,714 |
| Feb 8, 03:55 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Under 45.5 | 51¢ | $101,999 | 51¢ | 52¢ | +0.2% | +1.0% | 20h | won +$97,999 |
| Feb 3, 10:14 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks -4.5 | 50¢ | $75,219 | 50¢ | 51¢ | 0.0% | +1.0% | 133h | won +$75,219 |
| Jan 26, 08:59 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks -5.5 | 47¢ | $47,000 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +1.1% | 327h | won +$52,999 |
| Jan 24, 23:58 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots | 66¢ | $22,000 | 65¢ | 65¢ | −1.4% | −2.3% | 20h | won +$11,333 |
| Jan 21, 01:58 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks2025_21_LA_SEA | Seahawks | 58¢ | $204,055 | 56¢ | 56¢ | −3.0% | −4.2% | 118h | won +$148,280 |
| Jan 20, 05:01 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos | 31¢ | $10,333 | 35¢ | 36¢ | +12.7% | +14.5% | 135h | lost −$10,333 |
| Jan 18, 23:26 UTC | Rams vs. Bears2025_20_LA_CHI | Bears | 34¢ | $56,667 | 36¢ | 36¢ | +5.0% | +4.4% | 0h | lost −$56,667 |
| Jan 18, 22:41 UTC | Rams vs. Bears2025_20_LA_CHI | Rams | 65¢ | $216,666 | 64¢ | 65¢ | −1.1% | −0.8% | 1h | won +$116,667 |
| Jan 18, 00:56 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | 49ers | 27¢ | $19,782 | 28¢ | 28¢ | +4.3% | +5.6% | 0h | lost −$19,782 |
| Jan 18, 00:24 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | Seahawks | 72¢ | $215,998 | 72¢ | 72¢ | −0.2% | −0.7% | 1h | won +$83,999 |
| Jan 15, 23:02 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)2025_20_SF_SEA | Seahawks -7.5 | 45¢ | $7,911 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −0.9% | 50h | won +$9,712 |
| Jan 15, 05:20 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Bills | 47¢ | $3,133 | 48¢ | 47¢ | +1.2% | −1.1% | 64h | lost −$3,133 |
| Jan 15, 02:38 UTC | Spread: Rams (-3.5)2025_20_LA_CHI | Bears -3.5 | 48¢ | $6,400 | 49¢ | 50¢ | +2.3% | +3.1% | 93h | won +$6,933 |
| Jan 15, 02:26 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_20_HOU_NE | Patriots -3.5 | 47¢ | $15,758 | 48¢ | 50¢ | +2.2% | +5.3% | 90h | won +$17,774 |
| Jan 14, 23:40 UTC | Spread: Rams (-3.5)2025_20_LA_CHI | Rams -3.5 | 51¢ | $83,034 | 51¢ | 51¢ | −0.2% | −1.0% | 96h | lost −$83,034 |
| Jan 14, 23:24 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Broncos | 53¢ | $64,555 | 52¢ | 54¢ | −0.8% | +1.3% | 70h | won +$57,666 |
| Jan 12, 22:47 UTC | Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 38.52025_19_HOU_PIT | Under 38.5 | 51¢ | $5,667 | 51¢ | 52¢ | −0.9% | +1.0% | 3h | won +$5,444 |
| Jan 12, 21:28 UTC | Texans vs. Steelers2025_19_HOU_PIT | Steelers | 41¢ | $43,464 | 41¢ | 42¢ | +1.0% | +1.2% | 4h | lost −$43,464 |
| Jan 12, 00:46 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_19_LAC_NE | Patriots -3.5 | 51¢ | $84,349 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −2.0% | −0.2% | 1h | won +$82,349 |
| Jan 10, 22:15 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-6.5)2025_19_SF_PHI | Eagles -6.5 | 46¢ | $3 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | −1.1% | 23h | lost −$3 |
| Jan 10, 21:22 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-4.5)2025_19_SF_PHI | Eagles -4.5 | 54¢ | $24,000 | no consensus | 52¢ | — | −4.6% | 24h | lost −$24,000 |
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