Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
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0xa9878e59934ab507f9039bcb917c1bae0451141d · Shadowy-Nun·Sep 8, 2025 → Nov 17, 2025·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 94
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +0.9%
- 95% CI +0.3% to +1.6%
- p-value
- 0.002
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- reached
- at this rate, 21 total
vs Polymarket close
+1.2%
95% CI +0.6% to +1.9%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+0.9%
95% CI +0.3% to +1.6%
79 of 114 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+0.3%
This wallet looks sharp against Polymarket's close but not against the books. The edge is Polymarket closing stale — anyone buying before the venue catches up collects it, and it disappears when the venue tightens.
114
positions
$5,431,025
staked
$5,181,931
volume
+$434,800
realised pnl
+8.0%
roi
0
open positions
114
settled positions
$533,885
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 65 | +1.0% | 0.4% | +8.5% | yes |
| totals | 9 | +0.9% | 0.9% | +26.3% | n<30 |
| spreads | 5 | +1.0% | 1.3% | −47.9% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 114. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 18:00 UTC | Packers vs. Giants2025_11_GB_NYG | Packers | 77¢ | $79,027 | 76¢ | 77¢ | −0.9% | −0.7% | 0h | won +$23,605 |
| Nov 16, 17:58 UTC | Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.52025_11_LAC_JAX | Over 45.5 | 38¢ | $1 | no consensus | 40¢ | — | +4.0% | 0h | lost −$1 |
| Nov 16, 17:49 UTC | Chargers vs. Jaguars2025_11_LAC_JAX | Jaguars | 43¢ | $2,897 | 43¢ | 43¢ | −0.3% | −1.2% | 0h | won +$3,841 |
| Nov 16, 17:48 UTC | Chargers vs. Jaguars2025_11_LAC_JAX | Chargers | 57¢ | $4,231 | 57¢ | 57¢ | +0.4% | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$4,231 |
| Nov 16, 17:47 UTC | Texans vs. Titans2025_11_HOU_TEN | Texans | 69¢ | $51,393 | 69¢ | 70¢ | +0.3% | +0.7% | 0h | won +$23,090 |
| Nov 13, 23:57 UTC | Jets vs. Patriots2025_11_NYJ_NE | Patriots | 85¢ | $285,770 | 86¢ | 86¢ | +0.8% | +0.6% | 1h | won +$50,430 |
| Nov 10, 01:01 UTC | Steelers vs. Chargers2025_10_PIT_LAC | Steelers | 35¢ | $21,917 | 37¢ | 37¢ | +6.3% | +4.1% | 0h | lost −$21,917 |
| Nov 9, 21:24 UTC | Lions vs. Commanders2025_10_DET_WAS | Lions | 77¢ | $338,338 | 78¢ | 78¢ | +1.8% | +0.7% | 0h | won +$101,062 |
| Nov 9, 21:16 UTC | Rams vs. 49ers2025_10_LA_SF | Rams | 70¢ | $32,080 | 70¢ | 71¢ | −0.2% | +1.4% | 0h | won +$13,749 |
| Nov 9, 17:06 UTC | Giants vs. Bears2025_10_NYG_CHI | Giants | 34¢ | $204 | 34¢ | 34¢ | −1.1% | −1.5% | 1h | lost −$204 |
| Nov 9, 17:04 UTC | Giants vs. Bears2025_10_NYG_CHI | Bears | 66¢ | $39,204 | 66¢ | 67¢ | +0.5% | +0.8% | 1h | won +$20,196 |
| Nov 7, 01:05 UTC | Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 41.52025_10_LV_DEN | Under 41.5 | 47¢ | $3,693 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +1.1% | 0h | won +$4,165 |
| Nov 7, 00:35 UTC | Raiders vs. Broncos2025_10_LV_DEN | Broncos | 79¢ | $110,910 | 79¢ | 79¢ | +0.5% | +0.4% | 1h | won +$30,000 |
| Nov 4, 00:07 UTC | Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.52025_09_ARI_DAL | Under 53.5 | 50¢ | $4,693 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −1.0% | +1.0% | 1h | won +$4,693 |
| Nov 3, 23:09 UTC | Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.52025_09_ARI_DAL | Over 54.5 | 46¢ | $4,318 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | 0.0% | 2h | lost −$4,318 |
| Nov 2, 21:04 UTC | Saints vs. Rams2025_09_NO_LA | Rams | 89¢ | $161,802 | 89¢ | 91¢ | −0.3% | +1.7% | 0h | won +$19,998 |
| Nov 2, 17:57 UTC | Bears vs. Bengals2025_09_CHI_CIN | Bears | 58¢ | $69,049 | 59¢ | 59¢ | +1.3% | +0.9% | 0h | won +$50,001 |
| Nov 2, 17:47 UTC | Chargers vs. Titans2025_09_LAC_TEN | Chargers | 81¢ | $213,030 | 81¢ | 82¢ | +0.1% | +0.6% | 0h | won +$49,970 |
| Nov 2, 17:45 UTC | Vikings vs. Lions2025_09_MIN_DET | Lions | 80¢ | $161,920 | 80¢ | 81¢ | +0.5% | +0.6% | 0h | lost −$161,920 |
| Nov 2, 17:31 UTC | Panthers vs. Packers2025_09_CAR_GB | Packers | 86¢ | $122,851 | 86¢ | 87¢ | −0.3% | +0.6% | 1h | lost −$122,851 |
| Oct 28, 00:11 UTC | Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.52025_08_WAS_KC | Under 47.5 | 48¢ | $796 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | −1.0% | 0h | won +$862 |
| Oct 27, 22:53 UTC | Commanders vs. Chiefs2025_08_WAS_KC | Chiefs | 83¢ | $98,189 | 83¢ | 83¢ | −0.0% | −0.6% | 1h | won +$20,119 |
| Oct 27, 22:12 UTC | Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.52025_08_WAS_KC | Over 48.5 | 48¢ | $18,099 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +4.6% | +2.1% | 2h | lost −$18,099 |
| Oct 26, 19:56 UTC | Titans vs. Colts2025_08_TEN_IND | Colts | 90¢ | $180,000 | 90¢ | 90¢ | +0.1% | −0.6% | 1h | won +$20,000 |
| Oct 26, 16:42 UTC | Bills vs. Panthers2025_08_BUF_CAR | Bills | 75¢ | $30,804 | 77¢ | 78¢ | +2.1% | +3.3% | 0h | won +$10,268 |
Grade another wallet