Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
sleepy-panda
0xa49becb692927d455924583b5e3e5788246f4c40 · Muddy-Ice·Aug 8, 2025 → Aug 29, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 94
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +1.2%
- 95% CI +0.4% to +2.2%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
−0.3%
95% CI −1.5% to +0.8%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+1.2%
95% CI +0.4% to +2.2%
102 of 108 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−1.5%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
108
positions
$4,748,993
staked
$4,386,131
volume
−$338,531
realised pnl
−7.1%
roi
0
open positions
108
settled positions
$260,290
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 102 | +1.2% | 0.4% | −7.1% | yes |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 108. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 04:11 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots | 32¢ | $260,290 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +3.4% | +1.5% | 43h | lost −$260,290 |
| Jan 18, 05:14 UTC | Rams vs. Bears2025_20_LA_CHI | Bears | 35¢ | $133,000 | 36¢ | 36¢ | +2.0% | +1.4% | 18h | lost −$133,000 |
| Jan 17, 22:22 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | Seahawks | 72¢ | $44 | 72¢ | 72¢ | −0.2% | −0.7% | 3h | won +$17 |
| Jan 15, 19:46 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | 49ers | 27¢ | $235,792 | 28¢ | 28¢ | +5.3% | +6.6% | 53h | lost −$235,792 |
| Jan 4, 20:41 UTC | Cardinals vs. Rams2025_18_ARI_LA | Cardinals | 8¢ | $8,000 | 11¢ | 9¢ | +33.6% | +6.3% | 1h | lost −$8,000 |
| Jan 4, 06:46 UTC | Chargers vs. Broncos2025_18_LAC_DEN | Chargers | 11¢ | $21,988 | 10¢ | 11¢ | −8.3% | −4.2% | 15h | lost −$21,988 |
| Jan 4, 00:36 UTC | Seahawks vs. 49ers2025_18_SEA_SF | Seahawks | 59¢ | $28,640 | 59¢ | 59¢ | −0.7% | −0.9% | 0h | won +$19,903 |
| Jan 4, 00:31 UTC | Seahawks vs. 49ers2025_18_SEA_SF | 49ers | 42¢ | $42,000 | 41¢ | 42¢ | −1.4% | −1.2% | 1h | lost −$42,000 |
| Dec 30, 01:10 UTC | Rams vs. Falcons2025_17_LA_ATL | Rams | 76¢ | $664 | 75¢ | 76¢ | −1.3% | −0.7% | 0h | lost −$664 |
| Dec 29, 00:34 UTC | Bears vs. 49ers2025_17_CHI_SF | Bears | 36¢ | $72,000 | 35¢ | 37¢ | −2.7% | +1.4% | 1h | lost −$72,000 |
| Dec 25, 23:09 UTC | Broncos vs. Chiefs2025_17_DEN_KC | Chiefs | 12¢ | $11,435 | 13¢ | 13¢ | +1.6% | +0.5% | 2h | lost −$11,435 |
| Dec 25, 21:18 UTC | Lions vs. Vikings2025_17_DET_MIN | Vikings | 24¢ | $27,600 | 25¢ | 24¢ | +3.8% | −2.1% | 0h | won +$87,400 |
| Dec 21, 23:40 UTC | Patriots vs. Ravens2025_16_NE_BAL | Patriots | 36¢ | $142,486 | 36¢ | 36¢ | +0.6% | −0.7% | 2h | won +$256,086 |
| Dec 21, 21:11 UTC | Raiders vs. Texans2025_16_LV_HOU | Texans | 90¢ | $4,453 | 89¢ | 90¢ | −0.8% | −0.6% | 0h | won +$495 |
| Dec 21, 21:04 UTC | Raiders vs. Texans2025_16_LV_HOU | Raiders | 10¢ | $495 | 11¢ | 11¢ | +7.4% | +5.0% | 0h | lost −$495 |
| Dec 15, 00:52 UTC | Vikings vs. Cowboys2025_15_MIN_DAL | Vikings | 31¢ | $62,000 | 32¢ | 32¢ | +3.5% | +1.6% | 1h | won +$138,000 |
| Dec 14, 21:03 UTC | Colts vs. Seahawks2025_15_IND_SEA | Colts | 15¢ | $15,000 | 15¢ | 14¢ | −1.6% | −10.0% | 0h | lost −$15,000 |
| Dec 14, 20:39 UTC | Packers vs. Broncos2025_15_GB_DEN | Broncos | 47¢ | $11,750 | 48¢ | 48¢ | +1.3% | +1.1% | 1h | won +$13,250 |
| Dec 14, 16:45 UTC | Raiders vs. Eagles2025_15_LV_PHI | Eagles | 86¢ | $2,236 | 86¢ | 87¢ | −0.0% | +0.6% | 1h | won +$364 |
| Dec 9, 01:04 UTC | Eagles vs. Chargers2025_14_PHI_LAC | Eagles | 51¢ | $102,000 | 52¢ | 56¢ | +2.3% | +8.8% | 0h | lost −$102,000 |
| Dec 7, 22:37 UTC | Texans vs. Chiefs2025_14_HOU_KC | Texans | 33¢ | $45,568 | 34¢ | 33¢ | +0.6% | −2.8% | 3h | won +$90,700 |
| Dec 7, 20:54 UTC | Bears vs. Packers2025_14_CHI_GB | Bears | 26¢ | $4,680 | 27¢ | 27¢ | +3.8% | +1.9% | 1h | lost −$4,680 |
| Dec 7, 16:46 UTC | Saints vs. Buccaneers2025_14_NO_TB | Saints | 23¢ | $2,126 | 24¢ | 23¢ | +2.3% | −2.2% | 1h | won +$7,118 |
| Dec 7, 16:43 UTC | Saints vs. Buccaneers2025_14_NO_TB | Buccaneers | 78¢ | $90,779 | 76¢ | 78¢ | −1.7% | −0.4% | 1h | lost −$90,779 |
| Dec 4, 15:02 UTC | Cowboys vs. Lions2025_14_DAL_DET | Lions | 62¢ | $179,012 | 63¢ | 64¢ | +1.1% | +2.4% | 10h | won +$109,717 |
Grade another wallet