Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
ckw
0x92672c80d36dcd08172aa1e51dface0f20b70f9a · Scientific-Fowl·Nov 17, 2024 → Feb 9, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 100
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +1.6%
- 95% CI +1.1% to +2.1%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+1.9%
95% CI +1.1% to +2.9%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+1.6%
95% CI +1.1% to +2.1%
203 of 274 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+0.3%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
274
positions
$5,002,016
staked
$4,593,602
volume
+$187,388
realised pnl
+3.7%
roi
0
open positions
274
settled positions
$138,000
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 164 | +1.6% | 0.3% | +3.2% | yes |
| spreads | 25 | +1.6% | 0.5% | −21.1% | n<30 |
| totals | 14 | +1.3% | 0.7% | −15.5% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 274. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 23:31 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)2025_21_LA_SEA | Rams -3.5 | 59¢ | $115 | no consensus | 60¢ | — | +0.9% | 0h | lost −$115 |
| Jan 25, 23:20 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 47.52025_21_LA_SEA | Over 47.5 | 43¢ | $12,900 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | +1.2% | 0h | won +$17,100 |
| Jan 25, 18:47 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots | 65¢ | $13,000 | 65¢ | 65¢ | +0.1% | −0.8% | 1h | won +$7,000 |
| Jan 18, 23:39 UTC | Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.52025_20_LA_CHI | Under 48.5 | 46¢ | $1,380 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +3.3% | 0h | won +$1,620 |
| Jan 18, 23:31 UTC | Rams vs. Bears2025_20_LA_CHI | Bears | 34¢ | $17,000 | 36¢ | 36¢ | +5.0% | +4.4% | 0h | lost −$17,000 |
| Jan 17, 20:17 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Bills | 47¢ | $18,800 | 48¢ | 47¢ | +1.2% | −1.1% | 1h | lost −$18,800 |
| Jan 15, 22:40 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | Seahawks | 72¢ | $56,868 | 72¢ | 72¢ | −0.5% | −1.0% | 50h | won +$21,891 |
| Jan 15, 19:30 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_20_HOU_NE | Texans -3.5 | 53¢ | $21,200 | 52¢ | 51¢ | −2.0% | −4.7% | 73h | lost −$21,200 |
| Jan 13, 21:29 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots2025_20_HOU_NE | Texans | 38¢ | $15,000 | 38¢ | 37¢ | +1.2% | −2.7% | 119h | lost −$15,000 |
| Jan 13, 21:18 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | 49ers | 24¢ | $9,135 | 28¢ | 28¢ | +17.4% | +18.8% | 100h | lost −$9,135 |
| Jan 12, 12:59 UTC | Texans vs. Steelers2025_19_HOU_PIT | Texans | 59¢ | $23,600 | 59¢ | 59¢ | −0.7% | −0.9% | 12h | won +$16,400 |
| Jan 12, 11:42 UTC | Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 38.52025_19_HOU_PIT | Under 38.5 | 50¢ | $20,000 | 51¢ | 52¢ | +1.1% | +3.0% | 14h | won +$20,000 |
| Jan 12, 01:01 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_19_LAC_NE | Chargers -3.5 | 48¢ | $24,200 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +4.2% | +2.3% | 0h | lost −$24,200 |
| Jan 11, 21:20 UTC | 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 44.52025_19_SF_PHI | Over 44.5 | 49¢ | $9,800 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +2.0% | −1.0% | 0h | lost −$9,800 |
| Jan 10, 21:16 UTC | Spread: Rams (-10.5)2025_19_LA_CAR | Panthers -10.5 | 52¢ | $15,600 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.0% | 0h | won +$14,400 |
| Jan 10, 21:04 UTC | Rams vs. Panthers2025_19_LA_CAR | Rams | 81¢ | $56,021 | 82¢ | 82¢ | +0.8% | +0.6% | 0h | won +$13,141 |
| Jan 5, 01:13 UTC | Ravens vs. Steelers2025_18_BAL_PIT | Ravens | 68¢ | $62,893 | 67¢ | 68¢ | −1.4% | −0.7% | 0h | lost −$62,893 |
| Jan 4, 21:19 UTC | Chargers vs. Broncos2025_18_LAC_DEN | Broncos | 89¢ | $26,700 | 90¢ | 90¢ | +1.1% | +0.6% | 0h | won +$3,300 |
| Jan 4, 21:15 UTC | Lions vs. Bears2025_18_DET_CHI | Lions | 38¢ | $9,500 | 38¢ | 38¢ | +0.9% | −1.3% | 0h | won +$15,500 |
| Jan 4, 21:15 UTC | Chiefs vs. Raiders2025_18_KC_LV | Raiders | 36¢ | $2,880 | 35¢ | 36¢ | −1.8% | −1.4% | 0h | won +$5,120 |
| Jan 4, 20:53 UTC | Chiefs vs. Raiders2025_18_KC_LV | Chiefs | 64¢ | $76,800 | 65¢ | 65¢ | +1.0% | +0.8% | 1h | lost −$76,800 |
| Jan 4, 00:49 UTC | Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 49.52025_18_SEA_SF | Under 49.5 | 53¢ | $16,041 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +6.6% | 0h | won +$14,225 |
| Jan 4, 00:40 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)2025_18_SEA_SF | 49ers -2.5 | 46¢ | $9,200 | 48¢ | 48¢ | +4.0% | +3.3% | 0h | lost −$9,200 |
| Jan 3, 21:27 UTC | Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) | Panthers -2.5 | 44¢ | $636 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | +3.4% | 0h | won +$810 |
| Jan 3, 21:26 UTC | Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5) | Panthers -3.5 | 55¢ | $10,845 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +1.8% | 0h | won +$8,873 |
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