Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
Finubar
0x900c83447eb74c3f29f17658e848e2715ca41d7a · Crowded-Relative·Oct 14, 2025 → Nov 10, 2025·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 83
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +0.4%
- 95% CI −0.1% to +0.8%
- p-value
- 0.062
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- 0
- at this rate, 30 total
vs Polymarket close
−0.1%
95% CI −0.5% to +0.4%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+0.4%
95% CI −0.1% to +0.8%
247 of 596 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.4%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
596
positions
$5,790,651
staked
$5,790,651
volume
+$518,027
realised pnl
+8.9%
roi
0
open positions
596
settled positions
$189,701
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 117 | +1.0% | 0.4% | +8.5% | yes |
| totals | 71 | −0.5% | 0.4% | +15.9% | no |
| spreads | 59 | +0.1% | 0.4% | +12.3% | no |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 596. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 23:00 UTC | Commanders vs. Dolphins2025_11_WAS_MIA | Commanders | 41¢ | $10 | 44¢ | 44¢ | +6.6% | +6.1% | 136h | lost −$10 |
| Nov 10, 22:59 UTC | Spread: 49ers (-1.5)2025_11_SF_ARI | Cardinals -1.5 | 47¢ | $21 | no consensus | 39¢ | — | −17.0% | 142h | lost −$21 |
| Nov 10, 22:59 UTC | Spread: 49ers (-2.5)2025_11_SF_ARI | Cardinals -2.5 | 50¢ | $21 | no consensus | 41¢ | — | −17.4% | 142h | lost −$21 |
| Nov 10, 22:47 UTC | 49ers vs. Cardinals2025_11_SF_ARI | 49ers | 59¢ | $356 | 63¢ | 64¢ | +7.7% | +8.4% | 142h | won +$252 |
| Nov 10, 21:49 UTC | 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.52025_11_SF_ARI | Over 48.5 | 53¢ | $18 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −5.7% | −4.7% | 143h | won +$16 |
| Nov 10, 21:36 UTC | 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.52025_11_SF_ARI | Over 47.5 | 56¢ | $18 | no consensus | 54¢ | — | −4.5% | 144h | won +$14 |
| Nov 10, 21:28 UTC | Chiefs vs. Broncos2025_11_KC_DEN | Broncos | 35¢ | $53 | 34¢ | 34¢ | −2.0% | −4.3% | 144h | won +$98 |
| Nov 10, 20:48 UTC | Panthers vs. Falcons2025_11_CAR_ATL | Falcons | 65¢ | $43 | 66¢ | 68¢ | +1.7% | +3.9% | 141h | lost −$43 |
| Nov 10, 19:15 UTC | Spread: Chargers (-1.5)2025_11_LAC_JAX | Jaguars -1.5 | 44¢ | $27 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | +4.5% | 143h | won +$35 |
| Nov 10, 18:05 UTC | Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 49.52025_11_CIN_PIT | Over 49.5 | 52¢ | $36 | no consensus | 42¢ | — | −19.2% | 144h | lost −$36 |
| Nov 10, 17:12 UTC | Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 45.52025_10_PHI_GB | Under 45.5 | 51¢ | $837 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +3.7% | 8h | won +$817 |
| Nov 10, 16:49 UTC | Commanders vs. Dolphins2025_11_WAS_MIA | Dolphins | 57¢ | $260 | 56¢ | 56¢ | −1.2% | −0.9% | 142h | won +$196 |
| Nov 10, 16:45 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-11.5)2025_11_NYJ_NE | Patriots -11.5 | 52¢ | $26 | no consensus | 52¢ | — | 0.0% | 81h | won +$24 |
| Nov 10, 16:20 UTC | Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 45.52025_10_PHI_GB | Over 45.5 | 47¢ | $12,844 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +0.4% | 9h | lost −$12,844 |
| Nov 10, 15:35 UTC | Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 44.52025_11_NYJ_NE | Under 44.5 | 52¢ | $1,411 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +7.9% | 82h | won +$1,306 |
| Nov 10, 14:40 UTC | Spread: Packers (-2.5)2025_10_PHI_GB | Packers -2.5 | 44¢ | $56 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | +0.6% | 11h | lost −$56 |
| Nov 10, 02:55 UTC | Jets vs. Patriots2025_11_NYJ_NE | Patriots | 86¢ | $7,750 | 86¢ | 86¢ | −0.3% | −0.5% | 94h | won +$1,269 |
| Nov 10, 01:18 UTC | Spread: Chargers (-3.5)2025_10_PIT_LAC | Chargers -3.5 | 51¢ | $133 | 49¢ | 49¢ | −4.4% | −4.9% | 0h | won +$128 |
| Nov 10, 00:58 UTC | Jets vs. Patriots2025_11_NYJ_NE | Jets | 16¢ | $47 | 14¢ | 14¢ | −10.7% | −9.4% | 96h | lost −$47 |
| Nov 9, 20:57 UTC | Lions vs. Commanders: O/U 49.52025_10_DET_WAS | Over 49.5 | 47¢ | $19 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | −1.1% | 1h | won +$22 |
| Nov 9, 20:56 UTC | Spread: Chargers (-4.5)2025_10_PIT_LAC | Chargers -4.5 | 44¢ | $459 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | +1.6% | 4h | won +$588 |
| Nov 9, 20:30 UTC | Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.52025_10_ARI_SEA | Over 46.5 | 44¢ | $62 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | −1.1% | 1h | won +$79 |
| Nov 9, 20:27 UTC | Spread: Lions (-3.5)2025_10_DET_WAS | Commanders -3.5 | 33¢ | $16 | no consensus | 33¢ | — | 0.0% | 1h | lost −$16 |
| Nov 9, 19:32 UTC | Spread: Chargers (-3.5)2025_10_PIT_LAC | Steelers -3.5 | 53¢ | $7,017 | 51¢ | 52¢ | −3.7% | −3.2% | 6h | lost −$7,017 |
| Nov 9, 17:55 UTC | Saints vs. Panthers: O/U 39.52025_10_NO_CAR | Over 39.5 | 45¢ | $1,619 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | −2.2% | 0h | lost −$1,619 |
Grade another wallet