Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
Anointed-Connect
0x8f037a2e4fd49d11267f4ab874ab7ba745ac64d6 · Motherly-Insect·Oct 2, 2025 → Feb 8, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 97
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +0.7%
- 95% CI +0.3% to +1.2%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+1.3%
95% CI +0.8% to +1.7%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+0.7%
95% CI +0.3% to +1.2%
176 of 264 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+0.6%
This wallet looks sharp against Polymarket's close but not against the books. The edge is Polymarket closing stale — anyone buying before the venue catches up collects it, and it disappears when the venue tightens.
264
positions
$5,860,018
staked
$5,828,451
volume
+$444,901
realised pnl
+7.6%
roi
0
open positions
264
settled positions
$405,378
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 82 | +1.2% | 0.4% | +16.7% | yes |
| spreads | 65 | +0.5% | 0.3% | −4.9% | yes |
| totals | 29 | −0.2% | 0.4% | −38.7% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 264. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 23:27 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Under 45.5 | 52¢ | $5,720 | 51¢ | 52¢ | −1.8% | −1.0% | 0h | won +$5,280 |
| Feb 3, 03:46 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks | 68¢ | $405,378 | 67¢ | 68¢ | −1.4% | −0.5% | 140h | won +$191,869 |
| Jan 25, 22:33 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.52025_21_LA_SEA | Under 45.5 | 49¢ | $5,880 | 49¢ | 50¢ | +0.3% | +1.0% | 1h | lost −$5,880 |
| Jan 25, 22:14 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.52025_21_LA_SEA | Under 46.5 | 53¢ | $17,299 | no consensus | 54¢ | — | +0.9% | 1h | lost −$17,299 |
| Jan 25, 19:55 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots | 65¢ | $62,698 | 65¢ | 65¢ | +0.1% | −0.8% | 0h | won +$33,760 |
| Jan 25, 18:45 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)2025_21_LA_SEA | Rams -2.5 | 51¢ | $50,496 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −2.2% | −1.2% | 5h | lost −$50,496 |
| Jan 25, 17:28 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos -3.5 | 50¢ | $32,500 | 50¢ | 52¢ | 0.0% | +3.0% | 3h | won +$32,500 |
| Jan 22, 21:20 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-4.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots -4.5 | 48¢ | $1,126 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −7.3% | 71h | lost −$1,126 |
| Jan 22, 05:54 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-5.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos -5.5 | 54¢ | $23,920 | no consensus | 59¢ | — | +7.6% | 86h | won +$20,080 |
| Jan 18, 21:14 UTC | Spread: Rams (-3.5)2025_20_LA_CHI | Rams -3.5 | 51¢ | $5,100 | 51¢ | 51¢ | −0.2% | −1.0% | 2h | lost −$5,100 |
| Jan 18, 17:47 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_20_HOU_NE | Patriots -3.5 | 46¢ | $14,720 | 48¢ | 50¢ | +4.5% | +7.6% | 2h | won +$17,280 |
| Jan 18, 17:46 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots2025_20_HOU_NE | Patriots | 61¢ | $48,800 | 62¢ | 64¢ | +1.7% | +4.1% | 2h | won +$31,200 |
| Jan 18, 00:35 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | Seahawks | 72¢ | $87,840 | 72¢ | 72¢ | −0.2% | −0.7% | 0h | won +$34,160 |
| Jan 17, 18:38 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.52025_20_SF_SEA | Under 43.5 | 48¢ | $17,327 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | 0.0% | 6h | lost −$17,327 |
| Jan 17, 17:32 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-1.5)2025_20_BUF_DEN | Broncos -1.5 | 50¢ | $14,562 | 50¢ | 50¢ | 0.0% | −1.0% | 4h | won +$14,562 |
| Jan 16, 02:08 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.52025_20_SF_SEA | Under 45.5 | 55¢ | $7,192 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +1.4% | 47h | lost −$7,192 |
| Jan 13, 22:18 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Broncos | 52¢ | $25,286 | 52¢ | 54¢ | +1.7% | +3.8% | 95h | won +$23,780 |
| Jan 12, 01:07 UTC | Chargers vs. Patriots2025_19_LAC_NE | Chargers | 35¢ | $5,075 | 37¢ | 36¢ | +5.1% | +1.4% | 0h | lost −$5,075 |
| Jan 11, 05:24 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.52025_19_BUF_JAX | Under 51.5 | 52¢ | $30,242 | 50¢ | 52¢ | −3.9% | −1.0% | 13h | won +$27,916 |
| Jan 11, 05:15 UTC | Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.52025_19_LAC_NE | Over 46.5 | 48¢ | $11,544 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −7.2% | 20h | lost −$11,544 |
| Jan 11, 04:51 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars2025_19_BUF_JAX | Jaguars | 53¢ | $56,546 | 53¢ | 55¢ | +0.5% | +2.8% | 13h | lost −$56,546 |
| Jan 11, 00:32 UTC | Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.52025_19_GB_CHI | Under 45.5 | 48¢ | $7,063 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | −0.2% | 1h | lost −$7,063 |
| Jan 11, 00:32 UTC | Texans vs. Steelers2025_19_HOU_PIT | Texans | 59¢ | $1,331 | 59¢ | 59¢ | −0.7% | −0.9% | 49h | won +$925 |
| Jan 10, 23:52 UTC | 49ers vs. Eagles2025_19_SF_PHI | Eagles | 69¢ | $104,695 | 68¢ | 69¢ | −2.1% | −1.4% | 22h | lost −$104,695 |
| Jan 10, 20:56 UTC | Spread: Packers (-1.5)2025_19_GB_CHI | Bears -1.5 | 47¢ | $11,280 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | +3.2% | 4h | won +$12,720 |
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