Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
0x02e65d10e83eb391ca0c466630f82790854e25
0x83b9f9e2d28ab875b9c9f73cdd5535c4c8926124 · Active-Track·Sep 2, 2025 → Nov 12, 2025·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 93
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +0.9%
- 95% CI +0.3% to +1.6%
- p-value
- 0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
−0.2%
95% CI −1.0% to +0.6%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+0.9%
95% CI +0.3% to +1.6%
234 of 350 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−1.1%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
350
positions
$7,778,413
staked
$7,014,438
volume
+$821,414
realised pnl
+10.6%
roi
0
open positions
350
settled positions
$440,580
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 184 | +1.1% | 0.4% | +8.7% | yes |
| spreads | 25 | −0.1% | 0.5% | +44.5% | n<30 |
| totals | 25 | +0.1% | 0.7% | −6.6% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 350. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 05:12 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-13.5)2025_11_NYJ_NE | Patriots -13.5 | 48¢ | $24 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | −3.1% | 44h | lost −$24 |
| Nov 11, 23:29 UTC | 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.52025_11_SF_ARI | Over 48.5 | 49¢ | $25 | 50¢ | 51¢ | +2.0% | +3.1% | 118h | won +$26 |
| Nov 10, 18:06 UTC | Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 45.52025_10_PHI_GB | Over 45.5 | 49¢ | $260 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | −3.1% | 7h | lost −$260 |
| Nov 10, 13:39 UTC | Eagles vs. Packers2025_10_PHI_GB | Packers | 50¢ | $34,979 | 50¢ | 51¢ | 0.0% | +1.0% | 12h | lost −$34,979 |
| Nov 10, 05:53 UTC | Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 44.52025_10_PHI_GB | Over 44.5 | 54¢ | $11,346 | no consensus | 51¢ | — | −5.0% | 19h | lost −$11,346 |
| Nov 10, 00:26 UTC | Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 45.52025_10_PIT_LAC | Over 45.5 | 50¢ | $3,784 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +0.9% | +0.9% | 1h | lost −$3,784 |
| Nov 10, 00:22 UTC | Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 44.52025_10_PHI_GB | Under 44.5 | 46¢ | $19 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | +5.6% | 25h | won +$22 |
| Nov 10, 00:21 UTC | Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 46.52025_10_PIT_LAC | Over 46.5 | 46¢ | $107 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | −0.7% | 1h | lost −$107 |
| Nov 9, 19:33 UTC | Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.52025_10_ARI_SEA | Under 44.5 | 50¢ | $28 | 50¢ | 50¢ | −0.4% | 0.0% | 2h | lost −$28 |
| Nov 9, 17:53 UTC | Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.52025_10_BUF_MIA | Under 49.5 | 47¢ | $18 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +1.1% | 0h | won +$21 |
| Nov 9, 17:52 UTC | Browns vs. Jets2025_10_CLE_NYJ | Jets | 46¢ | $238 | 46¢ | 47¢ | −0.6% | +1.1% | 0h | won +$280 |
| Nov 9, 15:29 UTC | Spread: Lions (-9.5)2025_10_DET_WAS | Lions -9.5 | 44¢ | $30 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | +4.5% | 6h | won +$39 |
| Nov 9, 14:10 UTC | Giants vs. Bears: O/U 47.52025_10_NYG_CHI | Over 47.5 | 43¢ | $217 | no consensus | 40¢ | — | −8.1% | 4h | lost −$217 |
| Nov 9, 12:57 UTC | Falcons vs. Colts: O/U 48.52025_10_ATL_IND | Over 48.5 | 48¢ | $97 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +3.7% | +2.1% | 2h | won +$105 |
| Nov 9, 05:09 UTC | Spread: Bills (-9.5)2025_10_BUF_MIA | Bills -9.5 | 49¢ | $5,322 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −9.0% | 13h | lost −$5,322 |
| Nov 9, 03:57 UTC | Saints vs. Panthers: O/U 40.52025_10_NO_CAR | Over 40.5 | 43¢ | $63 | no consensus | 41¢ | — | −4.7% | 14h | lost −$63 |
| Nov 9, 01:54 UTC | Spread: Rams (-6.5)2025_10_LA_SF | Rams -6.5 | 48¢ | $2,574 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | +1.1% | 20h | won +$2,789 |
| Nov 8, 17:51 UTC | Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 48.52025_10_BAL_MIN | Under 48.5 | 48¢ | $172 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | −1.0% | 24h | won +$186 |
| Nov 8, 15:59 UTC | Falcons vs. Colts: O/U 48.52025_10_ATL_IND | Under 48.5 | 52¢ | $593 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −3.4% | −1.8% | 23h | lost −$593 |
| Nov 8, 14:05 UTC | Giants vs. Bears: O/U 46.52025_10_NYG_CHI | Over 46.5 | 50¢ | $1,918 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | −11.2% | 28h | lost −$1,918 |
| Nov 8, 13:25 UTC | Rams vs. 49ers: O/U 49.52025_10_LA_SF | Over 49.5 | 49¢ | $80 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +1.9% | −1.2% | 32h | won +$83 |
| Nov 8, 12:54 UTC | Rams vs. 49ers: O/U 48.52025_10_LA_SF | Under 48.5 | 47¢ | $8 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +2.1% | 33h | lost −$8 |
| Nov 8, 08:36 UTC | Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 49.52025_10_BAL_MIN | Over 49.5 | 49¢ | $483 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | −2.0% | 33h | lost −$483 |
| Nov 8, 07:45 UTC | Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.52025_10_BUF_MIA | Over 49.5 | 53¢ | $5 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | −0.9% | 34h | lost −$5 |
| Nov 8, 07:13 UTC | Browns vs. Jets: O/U 37.52025_10_CLE_NYJ | Over 37.5 | 51¢ | $84 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −2.0% | −1.0% | 35h | won +$81 |
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