Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
Alert-Doubling
0x7fb7ad0d194d7123e711e7db6c9d418fac14e33d·Aug 7, 2025 → Oct 21, 2025·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 100
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +2.4%
- 95% CI +1.9% to +2.9%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+2.1%
95% CI +1.2% to +2.9%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+2.4%
95% CI +1.9% to +2.9%
218 of 542 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.3%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
542
positions
$10,554,861
staked
$10,554,861
volume
+$234,394
realised pnl
+2.2%
roi
0
open positions
542
settled positions
$534,283
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 120 | +2.5% | 0.4% | −3.3% | yes |
| spreads | 63 | +2.3% | 0.5% | +1.1% | yes |
| totals | 35 | +2.0% | 0.5% | +51.9% | yes |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 542. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 07:34 UTC | Spread: Chargers (-3.5)2025_08_MIN_LAC | Chargers -3.5 | 44¢ | $1 | 49¢ | 49¢ | +11.2% | +10.2% | 65h | won +$1 |
| Oct 20, 22:14 UTC | Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 53.52025_07_TB_DET | Under 53.5 | 46¢ | $1,549 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | +2.2% | 1h | won +$1,818 |
| Oct 20, 17:28 UTC | Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 41.52025_07_HOU_SEA | Under 41.5 | 51¢ | $323 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −2.0% | −1.0% | 9h | lost −$323 |
| Oct 20, 14:55 UTC | Spread: Lions (-6.5)2025_07_TB_DET | Buccaneers -6.5 | 52¢ | $614 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.1% | 8h | lost −$614 |
| Oct 20, 02:06 UTC | Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 40.52025_07_HOU_SEA | Under 40.5 | 47¢ | $10,379 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | −2.0% | 24h | lost −$10,379 |
| Oct 19, 23:46 UTC | Spread: Lions (-5.5)2025_07_TB_DET | Buccaneers -5.5 | 47¢ | $71,265 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +1.1% | 23h | lost −$71,265 |
| Oct 19, 23:01 UTC | Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 52.52025_07_TB_DET | Over 52.5 | 52¢ | $2,138 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +9.6% | 24h | lost −$2,138 |
| Oct 19, 21:35 UTC | Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 53.52025_07_TB_DET | Over 53.5 | 49¢ | $29,033 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +8.9% | 25h | lost −$29,033 |
| Oct 19, 21:30 UTC | Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 46.52025_07_ATL_SF | Under 46.5 | 50¢ | $43,183 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +0.2% | −0.8% | 3h | won +$43,357 |
| Oct 19, 19:54 UTC | Colts vs. Chargers: O/U 48.52025_07_IND_LAC | Under 48.5 | 48¢ | $4,879 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +4.2% | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$4,879 |
| Oct 19, 19:31 UTC | Commanders vs. Cowboys2025_07_WAS_DAL | Cowboys | 52¢ | $18,967 | 53¢ | 53¢ | +1.6% | +1.0% | 1h | won +$17,508 |
| Oct 19, 19:07 UTC | Packers vs. Cardinals2025_07_GB_ARI | Packers | 75¢ | $9,326 | 75¢ | 76¢ | −0.4% | +0.7% | 1h | won +$3,109 |
| Oct 19, 18:20 UTC | Falcons vs. 49ers2025_07_ATL_SF | 49ers | 48¢ | $238,653 | 49¢ | 50¢ | +2.1% | +2.9% | 6h | won +$257,689 |
| Oct 19, 16:59 UTC | Spread: Chiefs (-13.5)2025_07_LV_KC | Chiefs -13.5 | 48¢ | $4,800 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | +1.0% | 0h | won +$5,200 |
| Oct 19, 16:51 UTC | Spread: Chargers (-2.5)2025_07_IND_LAC | Colts -2.5 | 49¢ | $85 | 49¢ | 49¢ | −0.1% | −1.1% | 3h | won +$89 |
| Oct 19, 16:41 UTC | Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 55.52025_07_WAS_DAL | Under 55.5 | 53¢ | $14,060 | no consensus | 52¢ | — | −1.5% | 4h | lost −$14,060 |
| Oct 19, 16:38 UTC | Colts vs. Chargers2025_07_IND_LAC | Colts | 43¢ | $515,771 | 44¢ | 43¢ | +1.5% | −1.5% | 4h | won +$679,803 |
| Oct 19, 16:35 UTC | Raiders vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.52025_07_LV_KC | Under 44.5 | 49¢ | $483 | 50¢ | 51¢ | +2.0% | +4.1% | 1h | won +$503 |
| Oct 19, 16:34 UTC | Falcons vs. 49ers: O/U 47.52025_07_ATL_SF | Under 47.5 | 54¢ | $20,133 | no consensus | 54¢ | — | 0.0% | 8h | won +$17,497 |
| Oct 19, 16:29 UTC | Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.52025_07_WAS_DAL | Under 54.5 | 49¢ | $40,203 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | −0.9% | 4h | lost −$40,203 |
| Oct 19, 15:57 UTC | Patriots vs. Titans: O/U 41.52025_07_NE_TEN | Under 41.5 | 52¢ | $1,675 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.0% | 1h | lost −$1,675 |
| Oct 19, 15:48 UTC | Spread: Jets (-1.5)2025_07_CAR_NYJ | Jets -1.5 | 47¢ | $512 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +1.1% | 1h | lost −$512 |
| Oct 19, 15:31 UTC | Saints vs. Bears: O/U 45.52025_07_NO_CHI | Under 45.5 | 54¢ | $14 | no consensus | 57¢ | — | +5.6% | 2h | won +$12 |
| Oct 19, 15:29 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-2.5)2025_07_PHI_MIN | Eagles -2.5 | 46¢ | $31,533 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +8.7% | +7.6% | 2h | won +$37,017 |
| Oct 19, 14:47 UTC | Spread: Chargers (-1.5)2025_07_IND_LAC | Colts -1.5 | 47¢ | $19,167 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | −0.5% | 5h | won +$21,848 |
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