Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
kch123
0x6a72f61820b26b1fe4d956e17b6dc2a1ea3033ee · Aggravating-Grin·Sep 4, 2025 → Feb 9, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 82
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +0.5%
- 95% CI −0.1% to +1.3%
- p-value
- 0.055
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- 0
- at this rate, 23 total
vs Polymarket close
+0.8%
95% CI +0.1% to +1.5%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+0.5%
95% CI −0.1% to +1.3%
77 of 105 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+0.3%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
105
positions
$14,029,226
staked
$14,029,226
volume
+$455,117
realised pnl
+3.2%
roi
0
open positions
105
settled positions
$1,013,326
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 57 | +0.8% | 0.4% | −7.4% | yes |
| spreads | 14 | −0.6% | 0.7% | +16.8% | n<30 |
| totals | 6 | +0.5% | 0.8% | +50.8% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 105. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 16:17 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks -5.5 | 48¢ | $203,779 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | −1.0% | 271h | won +$220,760 |
| Jan 27, 17:19 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks -4.5 | 51¢ | $1,013,326 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −1.3% | −0.3% | 294h | won +$986,675 |
| Jan 27, 17:19 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks | 68¢ | $475,076 | 67¢ | 68¢ | −1.4% | −0.5% | 294h | won +$224,923 |
| Jan 24, 20:43 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots | 66¢ | $115,937 | 65¢ | 65¢ | −1.4% | −2.3% | 23h | won +$59,725 |
| Jan 18, 19:12 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots2025_20_HOU_NE | Patriots | 63¢ | $504,000 | 62¢ | 64¢ | −1.5% | +0.8% | 1h | won +$296,000 |
| Jan 18, 15:19 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_20_HOU_NE | Texans -3.5 | 53¢ | $16,532 | 52¢ | 51¢ | −2.0% | −4.7% | 5h | lost −$16,532 |
| Jan 18, 03:32 UTC | Rams vs. Bears2025_20_LA_CHI | Rams | 65¢ | $718,226 | 64¢ | 65¢ | −1.1% | −0.8% | 20h | won +$386,737 |
| Jan 16, 21:13 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | Seahawks | 74¢ | $258,997 | 72¢ | 72¢ | −2.9% | −3.4% | 28h | won +$90,999 |
| Jan 15, 17:52 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Broncos | 52¢ | $52,000 | 52¢ | 54¢ | +0.8% | +2.9% | 52h | won +$48,000 |
| Jan 11, 20:55 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-4.5)2025_19_SF_PHI | 49ers -4.5 | 48¢ | $285,000 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | +2.1% | 1h | won +$315,000 |
| Jan 11, 20:11 UTC | 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.52025_19_SF_PHI | Over 43.5 | 52¢ | $42,427 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.7% | 1h | lost −$42,427 |
| Jan 11, 19:00 UTC | 49ers vs. Eagles2025_19_SF_PHI | Eagles | 69¢ | $103,500 | 68¢ | 69¢ | −1.5% | −0.7% | 3h | lost −$103,500 |
| Jan 11, 17:43 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.52025_19_BUF_JAX | Under 51.5 | 51¢ | $55,648 | 50¢ | 52¢ | −2.0% | +1.0% | 0h | won +$53,466 |
| Jan 11, 15:42 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars2025_19_BUF_JAX | Jaguars | 54¢ | $537,451 | 53¢ | 55¢ | −1.4% | +0.9% | 2h | lost −$537,451 |
| Jan 4, 21:20 UTC | Chiefs vs. Raiders2025_18_KC_LV | Chiefs | 63¢ | $3,824 | 65¢ | 65¢ | +2.6% | +2.4% | 0h | lost −$3,824 |
| Jan 4, 20:36 UTC | Commanders vs. Eagles2025_18_WAS_PHI | Eagles | 63¢ | $282,000 | 61¢ | 62¢ | −2.5% | −1.9% | 1h | lost −$282,000 |
| Jan 4, 17:47 UTC | Spread: Jaguars (-13.5)2025_18_TEN_JAX | Jaguars -13.5 | 47¢ | $3,539 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | +3.2% | 0h | won +$3,990 |
| Jan 4, 17:42 UTC | Spread: Jaguars (-12.5)2025_18_TEN_JAX | Jaguars -12.5 | 51¢ | $82,291 | 50¢ | 53¢ | −2.0% | +2.9% | 0h | won +$79,064 |
| Jan 4, 16:03 UTC | Spread: Falcons (-3.5)2025_18_NO_ATL | Falcons -3.5 | 53¢ | $112,910 | no consensus | 52¢ | — | −2.0% | 2h | lost −$112,910 |
| Jan 4, 15:55 UTC | Saints vs. Falcons2025_18_NO_ATL | Falcons | 64¢ | $35,603 | 65¢ | 65¢ | +1.5% | +0.8% | 2h | won +$20,027 |
| Jan 3, 20:38 UTC | Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) | Buccaneers -2.5 | 54¢ | $134,019 | no consensus | 55¢ | — | +0.9% | 1h | lost −$134,019 |
| Jan 3, 20:38 UTC | Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Buccaneers | 60¢ | $320,445 | no consensus | 60¢ | — | −0.8% | 1h | won +$213,630 |
| Jan 2, 20:46 UTC | Seahawks vs. 49ers2025_18_SEA_SF | Seahawks | 56¢ | $112,000 | 59¢ | 59¢ | +4.6% | +4.5% | 28h | won +$88,000 |
| Dec 29, 19:00 UTC | Spread: Rams (-7.5)2025_17_LA_ATL | Falcons -7.5 | 53¢ | $254,579 | 52¢ | 54¢ | −1.8% | +0.9% | 6h | won +$225,759 |
| Dec 29, 01:03 UTC | Spread: 49ers (-3.5)2025_17_CHI_SF | Bears -3.5 | 48¢ | $228,000 | 49¢ | 50¢ | +1.9% | +3.1% | 0h | lost −$228,000 |
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