Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
0x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeea·Oct 21, 2025 → Feb 9, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 4
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- −0.6%
- 95% CI −1.0% to −0.3%
- p-value
- 0.999
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
−1.3%
95% CI −1.6% to −1.0%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
−0.6%
95% CI −1.0% to −0.3%
233 of 353 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.7%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
353
positions
$4,875,982
staked
$4,537,225
volume
−$919,680
realised pnl
−18.9%
roi
0
open positions
353
settled positions
$395,576
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 162 | −0.5% | 0.3% | −30.1% | no |
| spreads | 38 | −1.0% | 0.3% | +4.5% | no |
| totals | 33 | −1.1% | 0.4% | −25.6% | no |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 353. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 22:10 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -4.5 | 50¢ | $18,556 | 50¢ | 50¢ | −0.1% | −1.1% | 1h | lost −$18,556 |
| Feb 8, 18:06 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks -4.5 | 51¢ | $17,802 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −2.0% | −1.0% | 6h | won +$17,104 |
| Feb 6, 16:42 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Over 45.5 | 49¢ | $51,889 | 49¢ | 49¢ | +0.3% | −0.6% | 55h | lost −$51,889 |
| Feb 6, 16:27 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots | 32¢ | $1,656 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +3.4% | +1.6% | 55h | lost −$1,656 |
| Jan 25, 18:33 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots -3.5 | 50¢ | $42,731 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +0.3% | −2.7% | 2h | lost −$42,731 |
| Jan 18, 21:50 UTC | Rams vs. Bears2025_20_LA_CHI | Bears | 35¢ | $26,238 | 36¢ | 36¢ | +1.8% | +1.2% | 2h | lost −$26,238 |
| Jan 18, 07:01 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots2025_20_HOU_NE | Texans | 38¢ | $12,691 | 38¢ | 37¢ | +0.3% | −3.6% | 13h | lost −$12,691 |
| Jan 17, 18:42 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Bills | 47¢ | $15,810 | 48¢ | 47¢ | +0.3% | −2.0% | 3h | lost −$15,810 |
| Jan 15, 23:38 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | 49ers | 28¢ | $29,736 | 28¢ | 28¢ | +1.1% | +2.3% | 49h | lost −$29,736 |
| Jan 12, 23:37 UTC | Spread: Texans (-3.5)2025_19_HOU_PIT | Texans -3.5 | 43¢ | $25,599 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | +0.8% | 2h | won +$33,731 |
| Jan 11, 16:09 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars2025_19_BUF_JAX | Bills | 47¢ | $21,992 | 47¢ | 45¢ | +0.4% | −3.3% | 2h | won +$25,250 |
| Jan 11, 04:59 UTC | 49ers vs. Eagles2025_19_SF_PHI | 49ers | 31¢ | $22,150 | 32¢ | 32¢ | +2.0% | +0.3% | 17h | won +$48,389 |
| Jan 10, 21:31 UTC | Packers vs. Bears2025_19_GB_CHI | Bears | 46¢ | $20,624 | 46¢ | 46¢ | −0.8% | −1.2% | 4h | won +$24,142 |
| Jan 4, 17:10 UTC | Packers vs. Vikings2025_18_GB_MIN | Packers | 18¢ | $561 | 17¢ | 17¢ | −5.5% | −8.3% | 1h | lost −$561 |
| Jan 4, 00:12 UTC | Seahawks vs. 49ers2025_18_SEA_SF | Seahawks | 59¢ | $163 | 59¢ | 59¢ | −0.7% | −0.9% | 1h | won +$113 |
| Jan 3, 21:44 UTC | Seahawks vs. 49ers2025_18_SEA_SF | 49ers | 42¢ | $95,891 | 41¢ | 42¢ | −1.7% | −1.4% | 3h | lost −$95,891 |
| Dec 30, 01:14 UTC | Spread: Rams (-7.5)2025_17_LA_ATL | Rams -7.5 | 47¢ | $204 | 48¢ | 47¢ | +2.0% | −1.1% | 0h | lost −$204 |
| Dec 29, 01:11 UTC | Bears vs. 49ers2025_17_CHI_SF | Bears | 35¢ | $5,089 | 35¢ | 37¢ | +0.1% | +4.3% | 0h | lost −$5,089 |
| Dec 25, 21:07 UTC | Spread: Lions (-7.5)2025_17_DET_MIN | Lions -7.5 | 49¢ | $9,989 | 48¢ | 49¢ | −3.0% | −0.6% | 0h | lost −$9,989 |
| Dec 25, 16:12 UTC | Cowboys vs. Commanders2025_17_DAL_WAS | Cowboys | 79¢ | $6,908 | 79¢ | 79¢ | +0.2% | −0.6% | 2h | won +$1,836 |
| Dec 25, 10:17 UTC | Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)2025_17_DAL_WAS | Cowboys -7.5 | 53¢ | $9,070 | no consensus | 52¢ | — | −1.5% | 8h | lost −$9,070 |
| Dec 22, 00:45 UTC | Spread: Ravens (-3.5)2025_16_NE_BAL | Patriots -3.5 | 49¢ | $448 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +1.1% | −1.7% | 1h | won +$459 |
| Dec 22, 00:05 UTC | Patriots vs. Ravens2025_16_NE_BAL | Patriots | 36¢ | $81,245 | 36¢ | 36¢ | +0.7% | −0.5% | 1h | won +$146,405 |
| Dec 21, 06:58 UTC | Chargers vs. Cowboys2025_16_LAC_DAL | Chargers | 48¢ | $14,645 | 48¢ | 47¢ | +0.3% | −2.5% | 11h | won +$16,052 |
| Dec 20, 22:01 UTC | Eagles vs. Commanders2025_16_PHI_WAS | Eagles | 75¢ | $5,940 | 75¢ | 75¢ | −0.2% | −0.7% | 0h | won +$1,980 |
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