Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
4-seas
0x51393c00184b39182f09a8a62b8549642e69a8db · Impressive-Cymbal·Sep 1, 2025 → Dec 16, 2025·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 97
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +0.7%
- 95% CI +0.3% to +1.1%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+0.9%
95% CI −0.0% to +2.0%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+0.7%
95% CI +0.3% to +1.1%
466 of 681 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+0.2%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
681
positions
$6,979,526
staked
$6,979,526
volume
+$57,438
realised pnl
+0.8%
roi
0
open positions
681
settled positions
$193,455
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 337 | +0.9% | 0.2% | +1.8% | yes |
| spreads | 75 | −0.2% | 0.3% | +18.6% | no |
| totals | 54 | +0.2% | 0.4% | −33.5% | no |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 681. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 19:01 UTC | Spread: Panthers (-2.5)2025_15_CAR_NO | Panthers -2.5 | 51¢ | $11,160 | 51¢ | 50¢ | −0.6% | −3.7% | 74h | lost −$11,160 |
| Dec 11, 18:27 UTC | Falcons vs. Buccaneers2025_15_ATL_TB | Buccaneers | 70¢ | $3,172 | 71¢ | 72¢ | +1.2% | +2.1% | 7h | lost −$3,172 |
| Dec 11, 17:52 UTC | Spread: Steelers (-3.5)2025_15_MIA_PIT | Dolphins -3.5 | 51¢ | $17,900 | 51¢ | 52¢ | +0.7% | +1.6% | 103h | lost −$17,900 |
| Dec 11, 04:16 UTC | Panthers vs. Saints2025_15_CAR_NO | Panthers | 58¢ | $7,100 | 57¢ | 56¢ | −2.1% | −2.6% | 89h | lost −$7,100 |
| Dec 9, 14:57 UTC | Chargers vs. Chiefs2025_15_LAC_KC | Chiefs | 67¢ | $461 | 71¢ | 72¢ | +5.6% | +6.7% | 123h | lost −$461 |
| Dec 9, 14:26 UTC | Browns vs. Bears: O/U 40.52025_15_CLE_CHI | Under 40.5 | 50¢ | $5,708 | no consensus | 57¢ | — | +13.0% | 124h | won +$5,602 |
| Dec 9, 01:04 UTC | Eagles vs. Chargers2025_14_PHI_LAC | Chargers | 49¢ | $9,170 | 48¢ | 45¢ | −2.5% | −9.3% | 0h | won +$9,522 |
| Dec 8, 23:03 UTC | Eagles vs. Chargers2025_14_PHI_LAC | Eagles | 55¢ | $2,062 | 52¢ | 56¢ | −5.1% | +0.9% | 2h | lost −$2,062 |
| Dec 8, 22:13 UTC | Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 41.52025_14_PHI_LAC | Over 41.5 | 50¢ | $19 | no consensus | 51¢ | — | +1.0% | 3h | lost −$19 |
| Dec 8, 17:17 UTC | Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 41.52025_14_PHI_LAC | Under 41.5 | 48¢ | $352 | no consensus | 50¢ | — | +3.8% | 8h | won +$385 |
| Dec 8, 00:30 UTC | Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.52025_14_HOU_KC | Under 42.5 | 54¢ | $379 | no consensus | 55¢ | — | +0.9% | 1h | won +$323 |
| Dec 7, 22:53 UTC | Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)2025_14_HOU_KC | Texans -4.5 | 51¢ | $7,682 | 50¢ | 50¢ | −2.0% | −2.9% | 2h | won +$7,380 |
| Dec 7, 21:56 UTC | Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.52025_14_HOU_KC | Over 42.5 | 46¢ | $269 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | −1.1% | 3h | lost −$269 |
| Dec 7, 21:31 UTC | Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)2025_14_HOU_KC | Chiefs -4.5 | 50¢ | $2,517 | 50¢ | 51¢ | +0.6% | +1.6% | 4h | lost −$2,517 |
| Dec 7, 21:18 UTC | Spread: LAR (-9.5)2025_14_LA_ARI | LAR -9.5 | 50¢ | $10,536 | no consensus | 50¢ | — | −1.0% | 0h | won +$10,536 |
| Dec 7, 21:15 UTC | LAR vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.52025_14_LA_ARI | Over 48.5 | 51¢ | $73 | 51¢ | 51¢ | +0.3% | −1.0% | 0h | won +$70 |
| Dec 7, 21:03 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-7.5)2025_14_DEN_LV | Broncos -7.5 | 50¢ | $2,273 | no consensus | 51¢ | — | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$2,273 |
| Dec 7, 19:51 UTC | Bears vs. Packers: O/U 44.52025_14_CHI_GB | Over 44.5 | 48¢ | $40 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | −3.1% | 2h | won +$43 |
| Dec 7, 17:59 UTC | Spread: Bills (-6.5)2025_14_CIN_BUF | Bills -6.5 | 49¢ | $304 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | −1.0% | 0h | lost −$304 |
| Dec 7, 17:57 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)2025_14_SEA_ATL | Falcons -7.5 | 57¢ | $24 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | −0.9% | 0h | lost −$24 |
| Dec 7, 17:41 UTC | Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 43.52025_14_PIT_BAL | Over 43.5 | 52¢ | $5,082 | 50¢ | 53¢ | −3.9% | +1.0% | 0h | won +$4,691 |
| Dec 7, 17:33 UTC | Spread: Browns (-3.5)2025_14_TEN_CLE | Browns -3.5 | 49¢ | $412 | 50¢ | 49¢ | +2.0% | −1.0% | 0h | lost −$412 |
| Dec 7, 17:27 UTC | Spread: Buccaneers (-8.5)2025_14_NO_TB | Buccaneers -8.5 | 46¢ | $2 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | 0.0% | 1h | lost −$2 |
| Dec 7, 17:26 UTC | Dolphins vs. Jets2025_14_MIA_NYJ | Dolphins | 56¢ | $24 | 57¢ | 56¢ | +2.1% | +0.9% | 1h | won +$19 |
| Dec 7, 17:14 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)2025_14_SEA_ATL | Seahawks -7.5 | 43¢ | $49 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | +1.2% | 1h | won +$65 |
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