Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
WALLYFIGHTS
0x445e88628a68c596c857085eb26f6379a1f49be0 · Tiny-Tumbler·Jan 11, 2025 → Sep 2, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 98
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +1.0%
- 95% CI +0.5% to +1.5%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+0.2%
95% CI −0.9% to +1.2%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+1.0%
95% CI +0.5% to +1.5%
227 of 310 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.8%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
310
positions
$710,826
staked
$605,399
volume
+$38,441
realised pnl
+5.4%
roi
0
open positions
310
settled positions
$16,780
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 168 | +1.1% | 0.3% | +7.3% | yes |
| spreads | 44 | +1.0% | 0.3% | +26.0% | yes |
| totals | 15 | −0.1% | 0.5% | −67.7% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 310. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 20:14 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Over 45.5 | 47¢ | $1,187 | 49¢ | 49¢ | +3.0% | +2.2% | 3h | lost −$1,187 |
| Feb 8, 17:10 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Under 45.5 | 51¢ | $1,795 | 51¢ | 52¢ | −0.4% | +0.4% | 6h | won +$1,705 |
| Feb 4, 13:39 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots | 31¢ | $2,045 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +5.2% | +3.3% | 106h | lost −$2,045 |
| Feb 1, 13:01 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks -4.5 | 50¢ | $1,900 | 50¢ | 51¢ | 0.0% | +1.0% | 179h | won +$1,900 |
| Jan 28, 16:17 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -4.5 | 49¢ | $1,862 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +2.0% | +1.0% | 271h | lost −$1,862 |
| Jan 26, 16:20 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks | 68¢ | $13,205 | 67¢ | 68¢ | −1.2% | −0.3% | 319h | won +$6,295 |
| Jan 25, 15:18 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots | 65¢ | $1,630 | 65¢ | 65¢ | −0.2% | −1.1% | 5h | won +$870 |
| Jan 23, 22:43 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.52025_21_NE_DEN | Under 42.5 | 48¢ | $96 | no consensus | 50¢ | — | +3.1% | 45h | won +$104 |
| Jan 18, 23:11 UTC | Spread: Rams (-3.5)2025_20_LA_CHI | Rams -3.5 | 51¢ | $1,020 | 51¢ | 51¢ | −0.2% | −1.0% | 1h | lost −$1,020 |
| Jan 18, 18:19 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots2025_20_HOU_NE | Texans | 38¢ | $750 | 38¢ | 37¢ | +1.2% | −2.7% | 2h | lost −$750 |
| Jan 18, 13:56 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots2025_20_HOU_NE | Patriots | 62¢ | $2,470 | 62¢ | 64¢ | +0.5% | +2.8% | 6h | won +$1,530 |
| Jan 17, 15:29 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | Seahawks | 73¢ | $730 | 72¢ | 72¢ | −1.6% | −2.1% | 10h | won +$270 |
| Jan 12, 21:28 UTC | Texans vs. Steelers2025_19_HOU_PIT | Steelers | 41¢ | $2,430 | 41¢ | 42¢ | +2.2% | +2.5% | 4h | lost −$2,430 |
| Jan 12, 00:53 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_19_LAC_NE | Chargers -3.5 | 49¢ | $980 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +2.9% | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$980 |
| Jan 11, 21:19 UTC | 49ers vs. Eagles2025_19_SF_PHI | Eagles | 68¢ | $1,360 | 68¢ | 69¢ | −0.0% | +0.7% | 0h | lost −$1,360 |
| Jan 11, 21:13 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-7.5)2025_19_SF_PHI | 49ers -7.5 | 61¢ | $1,381 | no consensus | 62¢ | — | +1.4% | 0h | won +$895 |
| Jan 10, 22:19 UTC | Spread: Packers (-2.5)2025_19_GB_CHI | Packers -2.5 | 49¢ | $1,940 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | 0.0% | 3h | lost −$1,940 |
| Jan 10, 21:06 UTC | Spread: Rams (-10.5)2025_19_LA_CAR | Panthers -10.5 | 52¢ | $520 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.0% | 0h | won +$480 |
| Jan 10, 11:44 UTC | Rams vs. Panthers2025_19_LA_CAR | Panthers | 18¢ | $1,780 | 18¢ | 19¢ | +3.0% | +3.9% | 10h | lost −$1,780 |
| Jan 10, 00:53 UTC | Chargers vs. Patriots2025_19_LAC_NE | Chargers | 35¢ | $5,637 | 37¢ | 36¢ | +5.5% | +1.8% | 48h | lost −$5,637 |
| Jan 9, 20:32 UTC | Chargers vs. Patriots2025_19_LAC_NE | Patriots | 64¢ | $5,432 | 63¢ | 65¢ | −0.9% | +1.1% | 53h | won +$3,087 |
| Jan 9, 16:49 UTC | Texans vs. Steelers2025_19_HOU_PIT | Texans | 59¢ | $3,574 | 59¢ | 59¢ | +0.1% | −0.0% | 80h | won +$2,535 |
| Jan 9, 08:08 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars2025_19_BUF_JAX | Jaguars | 50¢ | $2,060 | 53¢ | 55¢ | +5.9% | +8.4% | 58h | lost −$2,060 |
| Jan 8, 08:15 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars2025_19_BUF_JAX | Bills | 49¢ | $2,440 | 47¢ | 45¢ | −4.2% | −7.8% | 82h | won +$2,560 |
| Jan 7, 03:05 UTC | Rams vs. Panthers2025_19_LA_CAR | Rams | 81¢ | $8,219 | 82¢ | 82¢ | +0.3% | +0.1% | 90h | won +$1,877 |
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