Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
antman-batman-superman-lakers-in-5
0x42592084120b0d5287059919d2a96b3b7acb936f · Rigid-Match·Sep 5, 2025 → Jan 26, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 29
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- −0.3%
- 95% CI −1.0% to +0.5%
- p-value
- 0.817
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
−1.4%
95% CI −2.2% to −0.7%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
−0.3%
95% CI −1.0% to +0.5%
32 of 56 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−1.1%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
56
positions
$6,744,521
staked
$5,896,946
volume
−$778,000
realised pnl
−11.5%
roi
0
open positions
56
settled positions
$1,195,280
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 22 | −0.3% | 0.5% | −36.8% | n<30 |
| spreads | 8 | −0.4% | 0.7% | −44.5% | n<30 |
| totals | 2 | −0.3% | 0.3% | +19.5% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 56. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 23:32 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks2025_21_LA_SEA | Rams | 44¢ | $88,000 | 44¢ | 45¢ | −0.4% | +1.1% | 0h | lost −$88,000 |
| Dec 26, 00:47 UTC | Broncos vs. Chiefs2025_17_DEN_KC | Chiefs | 13¢ | $65,000 | 13¢ | 13¢ | −2.9% | −3.9% | 1h | lost −$65,000 |
| Dec 25, 23:52 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-13.5)2025_17_DEN_KC | Chiefs -13.5 | 51¢ | $76,090 | 50¢ | 52¢ | −1.4% | +1.5% | 1h | won +$73,910 |
| Dec 25, 16:59 UTC | Lions vs. Vikings2025_17_DET_MIN | Vikings | 23¢ | $2,248 | 25¢ | 24¢ | +8.3% | +2.2% | 5h | won +$7,527 |
| Dec 25, 16:38 UTC | Spread: Lions (-6.5)2025_17_DET_MIN | Vikings -6.5 | 43¢ | $3,289 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | +1.2% | 5h | won +$4,360 |
| Dec 25, 16:29 UTC | Lions vs. Vikings2025_17_DET_MIN | Lions | 77¢ | $346,500 | 75¢ | 77¢ | −2.5% | −0.7% | 5h | lost −$346,500 |
| Dec 25, 15:58 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-13.5)2025_17_DEN_KC | Broncos -13.5 | 50¢ | $75,000 | 50¢ | 49¢ | 0.0% | −3.0% | 9h | lost −$75,000 |
| Dec 25, 13:57 UTC | Broncos vs. Chiefs2025_17_DEN_KC | Broncos | 88¢ | $439,798 | 87¢ | 88¢ | −0.7% | −0.5% | 11h | won +$60,202 |
| Dec 25, 11:45 UTC | Spread: Lions (-6.5)2025_17_DET_MIN | Lions -6.5 | 57¢ | $32,860 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | −0.9% | 10h | lost −$32,860 |
| Dec 25, 11:38 UTC | Spread: Lions (-7.5)2025_17_DET_MIN | Lions -7.5 | 50¢ | $125,000 | 48¢ | 49¢ | −4.3% | −2.0% | 10h | lost −$125,000 |
| Dec 22, 22:28 UTC | Spread: 49ers (-6.5)2025_16_SF_IND | Colts -6.5 | 58¢ | $376 | no consensus | 57¢ | — | −0.9% | 3h | lost −$376 |
| Dec 22, 22:21 UTC | Spread: 49ers (-6.5)2025_16_SF_IND | 49ers -6.5 | 43¢ | $488,050 | no consensus | 43¢ | — | −1.2% | 3h | won +$646,950 |
| Dec 19, 01:04 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.52025_16_LA_SEA | Over 45.5 | 41¢ | $81,989 | no consensus | 39¢ | — | −6.1% | 0h | won +$118,011 |
| Dec 19, 00:54 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.52025_16_LA_SEA | Over 43.5 | 46¢ | $96,526 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | −1.0% | 0h | won +$113,474 |
| Dec 4, 19:00 UTC | Cowboys vs. Lions2025_14_DAL_DET | Lions | 61¢ | $72,686 | 63¢ | 64¢ | +2.8% | +4.1% | 6h | won +$46,472 |
| Dec 4, 18:13 UTC | Cowboys vs. Lions2025_14_DAL_DET | Cowboys | 38¢ | $1,195,280 | 37¢ | 37¢ | −2.7% | −4.8% | 7h | lost −$1,195,280 |
| Dec 2, 00:16 UTC | Giants vs. Patriots2025_13_NYG_NE | Patriots | 75¢ | $300,000 | 75¢ | 76¢ | −0.4% | +0.7% | 1h | won +$100,000 |
| Dec 2, 00:15 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-7.5)2025_13_NYG_NE | Patriots -7.5 | 46¢ | $184,000 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | +1.1% | 1h | won +$216,000 |
| Dec 2, 00:10 UTC | Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 46.52025_13_NYG_NE | Under 46.5 | 50¢ | $100,104 | 50¢ | 51¢ | 0.0% | +1.0% | 1h | lost −$100,104 |
| Dec 2, 00:07 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-7.5)2025_13_NYG_NE | Giants -7.5 | 54¢ | $270,000 | no consensus | 54¢ | — | −0.9% | 1h | lost −$270,000 |
| Dec 2, 00:06 UTC | Giants vs. Patriots2025_13_NYG_NE | Giants | 25¢ | $126,000 | 25¢ | 25¢ | +0.3% | −2.8% | 1h | lost −$126,000 |
| Dec 2, 00:00 UTC | Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 46.52025_13_NYG_NE | Over 46.5 | 50¢ | $151,100 | 50¢ | 50¢ | −0.7% | −1.7% | 1h | won +$149,104 |
| Nov 30, 17:51 UTC | 49ers vs. Browns2025_13_SF_CLE | Browns | 31¢ | $27,900 | 31¢ | 31¢ | +1.5% | −1.6% | 0h | lost −$27,900 |
| Nov 30, 17:38 UTC | Spread: Dolphins (-5.5)2025_13_NO_MIA | Dolphins -5.5 | 50¢ | $50,000 | 50¢ | 50¢ | 0.0% | −1.0% | 0h | lost −$50,000 |
| Nov 30, 15:52 UTC | Saints vs. Dolphins2025_13_NO_MIA | Dolphins | 70¢ | $36,420 | 69¢ | 70¢ | −1.9% | −1.2% | 2h | won +$15,334 |
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