Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
SpartanWar
0x3cdaf931c538750ffa43b4de25366401d7446e17 · Serious-Seeker·Sep 18, 2025 → Nov 14, 2025·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 100
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +1.6%
- 95% CI +1.1% to +2.1%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+1.6%
95% CI +0.7% to +2.6%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+1.6%
95% CI +1.1% to +2.1%
136 of 168 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+0.1%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
168
positions
$10,378,069
staked
$7,581,258
volume
−$785,000
realised pnl
−7.6%
roi
0
open positions
168
settled positions
$283,335
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 109 | +1.8% | 0.3% | −8.6% | yes |
| spreads | 19 | +1.1% | 0.6% | +15.2% | n<30 |
| totals | 8 | −0.4% | 0.6% | +77.5% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 168. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 00:35 UTC | Raiders vs. Broncos2025_10_LV_DEN | Broncos | 80¢ | $96,000 | 79¢ | 79¢ | −1.1% | −1.3% | 1h | won +$24,000 |
| Nov 6, 04:00 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-9.5)2025_10_LV_DEN | Broncos -9.5 | 48¢ | $669 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | −0.9% | 21h | lost −$669 |
| Nov 4, 01:09 UTC | Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)2025_09_ARI_DAL | Cardinals -3.5 | 52¢ | $2,567 | 51¢ | 52¢ | −1.8% | 0.0% | 0h | won +$2,370 |
| Nov 4, 01:02 UTC | Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.52025_09_ARI_DAL | Under 53.5 | 50¢ | $748 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −1.0% | +1.0% | 0h | won +$748 |
| Nov 4, 00:56 UTC | Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)2025_09_ARI_DAL | Cowboys -2.5 | 56¢ | $1,109 | no consensus | 57¢ | — | +1.8% | 0h | lost −$1,109 |
| Nov 3, 01:09 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)2025_09_SEA_WAS | Seahawks -3.5 | 41¢ | $5,865 | no consensus | 43¢ | — | +3.7% | 0h | won +$8,440 |
| Nov 3, 01:00 UTC | Seahawks vs. Commanders2025_09_SEA_WAS | Seahawks | 57¢ | $34,200 | 57¢ | 57¢ | +0.4% | +0.9% | 0h | won +$25,800 |
| Nov 2, 21:14 UTC | Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 50.52025_09_KC_BUF | Under 50.5 | 43¢ | $22 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | +1.2% | 0h | won +$29 |
| Nov 2, 21:08 UTC | Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 50.52025_09_KC_BUF | Over 50.5 | 56¢ | $35,180 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +0.9% | 0h | lost −$35,180 |
| Nov 2, 21:04 UTC | Jaguars vs. Raiders2025_09_JAX_LV | Raiders | 44¢ | $79 | 46¢ | 45¢ | +3.9% | +1.1% | 0h | lost −$79 |
| Nov 2, 21:04 UTC | Saints vs. Rams2025_09_NO_LA | Rams | 89¢ | $76,144 | 89¢ | 91¢ | −0.3% | +1.7% | 0h | won +$9,411 |
| Nov 2, 21:03 UTC | Spread: Rams (-13.5)2025_09_NO_LA | Saints -13.5 | 44¢ | $381 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | +1.1% | 0h | lost −$381 |
| Nov 2, 20:52 UTC | Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)2025_09_JAX_LV | Raiders -2.5 | 51¢ | $241 | no consensus | 51¢ | — | +0.4% | 0h | won +$233 |
| Nov 2, 20:48 UTC | Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)2025_09_JAX_LV | Jaguars -2.5 | 48¢ | $26,726 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | +2.1% | 0h | lost −$26,726 |
| Oct 30, 22:53 UTC | Ravens vs. Dolphins2025_09_BAL_MIA | Dolphins | 21¢ | $24,094 | 22¢ | 22¢ | +3.7% | +0.7% | 1h | lost −$24,094 |
| Oct 30, 22:07 UTC | Ravens vs. Dolphins2025_09_BAL_MIA | Ravens | 78¢ | $254,428 | 78¢ | 79¢ | −0.2% | +0.6% | 2h | won +$71,762 |
| Oct 30, 21:52 UTC | Spread: Ravens (-7.5)2025_09_BAL_MIA | Ravens -7.5 | 50¢ | $35,087 | 51¢ | 52¢ | +2.2% | +3.0% | 2h | won +$35,088 |
| Oct 30, 17:46 UTC | Spread: Ravens (-7.5)2025_09_BAL_MIA | Dolphins -7.5 | 49¢ | $153,886 | 49¢ | 49¢ | −0.2% | −1.0% | 7h | lost −$153,886 |
| Oct 28, 00:14 UTC | Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)2025_08_WAS_KC | Chiefs -12.5 | 42¢ | $3,109 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | +4.8% | 0h | won +$4,294 |
| Oct 28, 00:13 UTC | Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)2025_08_WAS_KC | Chiefs -11.5 | 43¢ | $43,000 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | +4.7% | 0h | won +$57,000 |
| Oct 28, 00:13 UTC | Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)2025_08_WAS_KC | Chiefs -10.5 | 45¢ | $149 | 49¢ | 48¢ | +8.7% | +5.6% | 0h | won +$182 |
| Oct 28, 00:01 UTC | Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)2025_08_WAS_KC | Commanders -10.5 | 52¢ | $38,503 | 51¢ | 53¢ | −1.8% | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$38,503 |
| Oct 27, 22:53 UTC | Commanders vs. Chiefs2025_08_WAS_KC | Chiefs | 83¢ | $198,108 | 83¢ | 83¢ | +0.3% | −0.3% | 1h | won +$41,257 |
| Oct 27, 18:51 UTC | Commanders vs. Chiefs2025_08_WAS_KC | Commanders | 16¢ | $35,048 | 17¢ | 18¢ | +3.3% | +6.2% | 5h | lost −$35,048 |
| Oct 27, 00:19 UTC | Packers vs. Steelers2025_08_GB_PIT | Steelers | 42¢ | $1,449 | 43¢ | 44¢ | +1.3% | +3.6% | 0h | lost −$1,449 |
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