Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
piastri
0x2f09642639aedd6ced432519c1a86e7d52034632 · Healthy-Drag·Aug 18, 2025 → Dec 9, 2025·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 96
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +0.8%
- 95% CI +0.3% to +1.3%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+0.4%
95% CI −0.3% to +1.4%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+0.8%
95% CI +0.3% to +1.3%
105 of 144 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.4%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
144
positions
$7,038,573
staked
$6,031,118
volume
−$161,498
realised pnl
−2.3%
roi
0
open positions
144
settled positions
$464,158
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 80 | +0.9% | 0.3% | +8.8% | yes |
| spreads | 15 | +0.7% | 0.6% | +45.8% | n<30 |
| totals | 10 | −0.3% | 0.4% | +58.9% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 144. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 00:00 UTC | Eagles vs. Chargers2025_14_PHI_LAC | Chargers | 47¢ | $111,843 | 48¢ | 45¢ | +0.9% | −6.2% | 1h | won +$123,993 |
| Dec 8, 23:59 UTC | Eagles vs. Chargers2025_14_PHI_LAC | Eagles | 51¢ | $326,993 | 52¢ | 56¢ | +1.5% | +7.9% | 1h | lost −$326,993 |
| Dec 8, 23:31 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-2.5)2025_14_PHI_LAC | Eagles -2.5 | 47¢ | $68,315 | no consensus | 50¢ | — | +5.1% | 2h | lost −$68,315 |
| Dec 8, 01:00 UTC | Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)2025_14_HOU_KC | Texans -3.5 | 45¢ | $11,250 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | +1.1% | 0h | won +$13,750 |
| Dec 8, 00:12 UTC | Texans vs. Chiefs2025_14_HOU_KC | Texans | 32¢ | $116,970 | 34¢ | 33¢ | +3.5% | +0.0% | 1h | won +$243,045 |
| Dec 7, 20:54 UTC | Bears vs. Packers2025_14_CHI_GB | Bears | 26¢ | $58,250 | 27¢ | 27¢ | +4.3% | +2.4% | 1h | lost −$58,250 |
| Dec 7, 17:12 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)2025_14_SEA_ATL | Seahawks -6.5 | 50¢ | $34,631 | 51¢ | 51¢ | +2.2% | +1.0% | 1h | won +$34,631 |
| Dec 7, 13:41 UTC | Colts vs. Jaguars2025_14_IND_JAX | Jaguars | 46¢ | $11,500 | 43¢ | 45¢ | −5.9% | −3.3% | 4h | won +$13,500 |
| Dec 7, 06:41 UTC | Seahawks vs. Falcons2025_14_SEA_ATL | Seahawks | 74¢ | $361,711 | 73¢ | 73¢ | −0.5% | −1.7% | 11h | won +$128,871 |
| Dec 7, 06:24 UTC | Seahawks vs. Falcons2025_14_SEA_ATL | Falcons | 25¢ | $169 | 27¢ | 28¢ | +6.6% | +10.0% | 12h | lost −$169 |
| Dec 4, 20:51 UTC | Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 54.52025_14_DAL_DET | Over 54.5 | 51¢ | $795 | no consensus | 54¢ | — | +5.9% | 4h | won +$764 |
| Dec 4, 18:20 UTC | Spread: Lions (-3.5)2025_14_DAL_DET | Cowboys -3.5 | 52¢ | $52,000 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −3.9% | −2.9% | 7h | lost −$52,000 |
| Dec 4, 15:44 UTC | Cowboys vs. Lions2025_14_DAL_DET | Lions | 62¢ | $369,918 | 63¢ | 64¢ | +0.5% | +1.8% | 10h | won +$223,218 |
| Dec 4, 15:38 UTC | Cowboys vs. Lions2025_14_DAL_DET | Cowboys | 38¢ | $222,573 | 37¢ | 37¢ | −0.8% | −2.9% | 10h | lost −$222,573 |
| Dec 4, 14:33 UTC | Spread: Lions (-6.5)2025_14_DAL_DET | Cowboys -6.5 | 62¢ | $96 | no consensus | 59¢ | — | −4.8% | 11h | lost −$96 |
| Dec 4, 05:38 UTC | Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 54.52025_14_DAL_DET | Under 54.5 | 50¢ | $45,107 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | −7.8% | 20h | lost −$45,107 |
| Dec 1, 22:51 UTC | Giants vs. Patriots2025_13_NYG_NE | Giants | 24¢ | $8,400 | 25¢ | 25¢ | +5.3% | +2.1% | 2h | lost −$8,400 |
| Dec 1, 18:51 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-7.5)2025_13_NYG_NE | Patriots -7.5 | 46¢ | $37,794 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | +1.1% | 6h | won +$44,366 |
| Dec 1, 17:41 UTC | Giants vs. Patriots2025_13_NYG_NE | Patriots | 76¢ | $349,600 | 75¢ | 76¢ | −1.7% | −0.7% | 8h | won +$110,400 |
| Dec 1, 00:32 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-6.5)2025_13_DEN_WAS | Broncos -6.5 | 47¢ | $164,500 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | 0.0% | 1h | lost −$164,500 |
| Nov 30, 23:17 UTC | Broncos vs. Commanders2025_13_DEN_WAS | Broncos | 71¢ | $166,050 | 71¢ | 72¢ | +0.7% | +0.7% | 2h | won +$67,844 |
| Nov 30, 17:55 UTC | LAR vs. Panthers2025_13_LA_CAR | Panthers | 19¢ | $8,177 | no consensus | 19¢ | — | −2.6% | 0h | won +$34,858 |
| Nov 30, 16:34 UTC | LAR vs. Panthers2025_13_LA_CAR | LAR | 81¢ | $464,158 | no consensus | 82¢ | — | +0.6% | 2h | lost −$464,158 |
| Nov 30, 15:59 UTC | Texans vs. Colts2025_13_HOU_IND | Colts | 61¢ | $30,318 | 60¢ | 61¢ | −0.8% | +0.6% | 2h | lost −$30,318 |
| Nov 30, 14:13 UTC | Texans vs. Colts2025_13_HOU_IND | Texans | 39¢ | $19,500 | 40¢ | 39¢ | +2.1% | 0.0% | 4h | won +$30,500 |
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