Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
SeriouslySirius
0x16b29c50f2439faf627209b2ac0c7bbddaa8a881 · Lumbering-Leisure·Oct 21, 2025 → Jan 7, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 100
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +2.6%
- 95% CI +2.2% to +3.0%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+2.6%
95% CI +2.3% to +3.0%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+2.6%
95% CI +2.2% to +3.0%
458 of 1,090 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
+0.0%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
1,090
positions
$26,964,929
staked
$26,964,929
volume
+$2,315,186
realised pnl
+8.6%
roi
0
open positions
1,090
settled positions
$1,091,348
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 190 | +3.2% | 0.5% | −9.5% | yes |
| spreads | 162 | +2.2% | 0.3% | +13.8% | yes |
| totals | 106 | +2.2% | 0.3% | +1.9% | yes |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 1,090. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 03:01 UTC | Spread: Rams (-11.5)2025_19_LA_CAR | Panthers -11.5 | 52¢ | $56 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +6.1% | 91h | won +$51 |
| Jan 6, 20:51 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-3.5)2025_19_SF_PHI | 49ers -3.5 | 45¢ | $223 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | 0.0% | 121h | won +$273 |
| Jan 6, 20:09 UTC | Spread: Bears (-1.5)2025_19_GB_CHI | Packers -1.5 | 53¢ | $4 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +6.6% | 101h | lost −$4 |
| Jan 6, 14:26 UTC | Spread: Bills (-2.5)2025_19_BUF_JAX | Bills -2.5 | 43¢ | $483 | no consensus | 42¢ | — | −3.6% | 124h | won +$639 |
| Jan 6, 14:26 UTC | Spread: Bills (-2.5)2025_19_BUF_JAX | Jaguars -2.5 | 54¢ | $662 | no consensus | 59¢ | — | +8.3% | 124h | lost −$662 |
| Jan 6, 07:17 UTC | Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.52025_19_LAC_NE | Under 46.5 | 49¢ | $138 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +13.3% | 138h | won +$144 |
| Jan 6, 07:17 UTC | Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.52025_19_LAC_NE | Over 46.5 | 46¢ | $135 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −3.3% | 138h | lost −$135 |
| Jan 6, 06:06 UTC | Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.52025_19_GB_CHI | Over 45.5 | 47¢ | $80 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +11.7% | 115h | won +$90 |
| Jan 6, 06:06 UTC | Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.52025_19_GB_CHI | Under 45.5 | 48¢ | $249 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | −1.0% | 115h | lost −$249 |
| Jan 6, 04:22 UTC | Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 46.52025_19_LA_CAR | Over 46.5 | 48¢ | $103 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | −9.4% | 113h | won +$112 |
| Jan 6, 04:22 UTC | Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 46.52025_19_LA_CAR | Under 46.5 | 48¢ | $81 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +18.4% | 113h | lost −$81 |
| Jan 6, 04:20 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.52025_19_BUF_JAX | Under 51.5 | 49¢ | $24 | 50¢ | 52¢ | +2.9% | +6.0% | 134h | won +$25 |
| Jan 6, 03:04 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-4.5)2025_19_SF_PHI | Eagles -4.5 | 49¢ | $215 | no consensus | 52¢ | — | +5.1% | 138h | lost −$215 |
| Jan 6, 03:04 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-4.5)2025_19_SF_PHI | 49ers -4.5 | 49¢ | $819 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | −0.7% | 138h | won +$858 |
| Jan 6, 02:48 UTC | Spread: Texans (-1.5)2025_19_HOU_PIT | Texans -1.5 | 56¢ | $448 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | −0.9% | 166h | won +$351 |
| Jan 6, 02:48 UTC | Spread: Texans (-1.5)2025_19_HOU_PIT | Steelers -1.5 | 41¢ | $215 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | +9.3% | 166h | lost −$215 |
| Jan 6, 02:21 UTC | Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.52025_19_GB_CHI | Under 44.5 | 44¢ | $2 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | +1.1% | 119h | lost −$2 |
| Jan 6, 02:21 UTC | Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.52025_19_GB_CHI | Over 44.5 | 51¢ | $12 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +8.8% | 119h | won +$12 |
| Jan 6, 01:46 UTC | Spread: Packers (-1.5)2025_19_GB_CHI | Bears -1.5 | 51¢ | $45 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | −4.9% | 119h | won +$43 |
| Jan 6, 01:46 UTC | Spread: Packers (-1.5)2025_19_GB_CHI | Packers -1.5 | 46¢ | $45 | no consensus | 52¢ | — | +12.0% | 119h | lost −$45 |
| Jan 6, 01:12 UTC | Spread: Rams (-10.5)2025_19_LA_CAR | Rams -10.5 | 47¢ | $433 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +1.0% | 116h | lost −$433 |
| Jan 6, 00:48 UTC | Packers vs. Bears2025_19_GB_CHI | Bears | 48¢ | $16,403 | 46¢ | 46¢ | −5.7% | −6.1% | 120h | won +$17,439 |
| Jan 6, 00:38 UTC | Spread: Rams (-10.5)2025_19_LA_CAR | Panthers -10.5 | 50¢ | $2,098 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +5.4% | 117h | won +$2,115 |
| Jan 6, 00:33 UTC | Spread: Bills (-1.5)2025_19_BUF_JAX | Jaguars -1.5 | 51¢ | $133 | no consensus | 57¢ | — | +11.9% | 138h | lost −$133 |
| Jan 6, 00:33 UTC | Spread: Texans (-3.5)2025_19_HOU_PIT | Steelers -3.5 | 52¢ | $2,156 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +9.6% | 169h | lost −$2,156 |
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