Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
gmpm
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 · Venerated-Ink·Sep 14, 2025 → Feb 8, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 87
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +0.4%
- 95% CI −0.0% to +0.7%
- p-value
- 0.030
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+0.0%
95% CI −0.3% to +0.4%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+0.4%
95% CI −0.0% to +0.7%
283 of 461 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.3%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
461
positions
$26,906,177
staked
$24,579,200
volume
+$2,304,705
realised pnl
+8.6%
roi
0
open positions
461
settled positions
$1,801,438
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 156 | +0.4% | 0.3% | +14.1% | no |
| spreads | 115 | +0.3% | 0.2% | +5.2% | no |
| totals | 12 | +0.3% | 0.6% | +24.8% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 461. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 20:54 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Over 45.5 | 48¢ | $152,064 | 49¢ | 49¢ | +1.9% | +1.0% | 3h | lost −$152,064 |
| Feb 6, 17:03 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Under 45.5 | 51¢ | $161,568 | 51¢ | 52¢ | +0.2% | +1.0% | 55h | won +$155,232 |
| Feb 1, 16:26 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.52025_22_SEA_NE | Under 46.5 | 55¢ | $12,869 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +1.7% | 175h | won +$10,720 |
| Jan 27, 17:07 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks | 68¢ | $2,521,260 | 67¢ | 68¢ | −1.0% | −0.1% | 295h | won +$1,209,094 |
| Jan 27, 14:47 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks -4.5 | 50¢ | $494,128 | 50¢ | 51¢ | +0.3% | +1.4% | 297h | won +$497,505 |
| Jan 26, 18:42 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.52025_22_SEA_NE | Over 46.5 | 46¢ | $10,901 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −3.7% | 317h | lost −$10,901 |
| Jan 26, 17:49 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks -5.5 | 47¢ | $347,027 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +1.1% | 318h | won +$391,364 |
| Jan 26, 16:20 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots | 32¢ | $348,954 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +2.2% | +0.3% | 319h | lost −$348,954 |
| Jan 26, 16:16 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -4.5 | 50¢ | $295,562 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +0.8% | −0.2% | 319h | lost −$295,562 |
| Jan 26, 16:16 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -5.5 | 53¢ | $230,293 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | −0.1% | 319h | lost −$230,293 |
| Jan 25, 13:01 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots -3.5 | 51¢ | $24,418 | 50¢ | 49¢ | −2.0% | −4.9% | 7h | lost −$24,418 |
| Jan 25, 10:27 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos -3.5 | 48¢ | $88,614 | 50¢ | 52¢ | +3.2% | +6.3% | 10h | won +$94,265 |
| Jan 24, 23:27 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-4.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos -4.5 | 54¢ | $22,020 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +2.8% | 21h | won +$18,758 |
| Jan 24, 21:48 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)2025_21_LA_SEA | Seahawks -3.5 | 41¢ | $1,453 | no consensus | 41¢ | — | −1.2% | 26h | won +$2,090 |
| Jan 24, 16:20 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.52025_21_LA_SEA | Over 46.5 | 47¢ | $45,825 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | −1.1% | 31h | won +$51,675 |
| Jan 23, 11:16 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks2025_21_LA_SEA | Seahawks | 56¢ | $73,451 | 56¢ | 56¢ | +0.4% | −0.9% | 60h | won +$57,704 |
| Jan 22, 20:50 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-4.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots -4.5 | 47¢ | $94,258 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −5.2% | 71h | lost −$94,258 |
| Jan 22, 19:18 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks2025_21_LA_SEA | Rams | 44¢ | $101,699 | 44¢ | 45¢ | −0.4% | +1.1% | 76h | lost −$101,699 |
| Jan 22, 15:56 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)2025_21_LA_SEA | Seahawks -2.5 | 50¢ | $5,651 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +0.6% | −0.4% | 80h | won +$5,718 |
| Jan 21, 23:56 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 47.52025_21_LA_SEA | Under 47.5 | 53¢ | $7,948 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +5.6% | 96h | lost −$7,948 |
| Jan 21, 22:44 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)2025_21_LA_SEA | Rams -2.5 | 50¢ | $782,846 | 50¢ | 51¢ | +0.7% | +1.7% | 97h | lost −$782,846 |
| Jan 21, 20:20 UTC | Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 47.52025_21_LA_SEA | Over 47.5 | 47¢ | $6,973 | no consensus | 44¢ | — | −7.3% | 99h | won +$7,885 |
| Jan 21, 20:12 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)2025_21_LA_SEA | Rams -3.5 | 58¢ | $19,455 | no consensus | 60¢ | — | +2.6% | 100h | lost −$19,455 |
| Jan 20, 16:37 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Patriots | 67¢ | $232,601 | 65¢ | 65¢ | −2.9% | −3.8% | 123h | won +$114,399 |
| Jan 19, 16:10 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos | 33¢ | $115,950 | 35¢ | 36¢ | +4.6% | +6.2% | 148h | lost −$115,950 |
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