Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
benwyatt
0x1117eade222413335b7ec959e5b48c1d3dbc3532 · Youthful-Investment·Jul 31, 2025 → Feb 8, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 97
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +1.2%
- 95% CI +0.6% to +1.9%
- p-value
- <0.001
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
+1.1%
95% CI +0.2% to +2.0%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+1.2%
95% CI +0.6% to +1.9%
222 of 324 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.0%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
324
positions
$7,240,327
staked
$7,237,764
volume
−$780,520
realised pnl
−10.8%
roi
0
open positions
324
settled positions
$124,766
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 139 | +2.4% | 0.5% | −18.7% | yes |
| spreads | 52 | −0.1% | 0.3% | −1.2% | no |
| totals | 31 | −2.0% | 0.4% | +34.9% | no |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 324. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 06:46 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots | 31¢ | $15,500 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +6.8% | +4.8% | 17h | lost −$15,500 |
| Feb 2, 13:28 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.52025_22_SEA_NE | Under 45.5 | 51¢ | $62,194 | 51¢ | 52¢ | +0.2% | +1.0% | 154h | won +$59,755 |
| Jan 31, 05:00 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -5.5 | 52¢ | $23,400 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.0% | 211h | lost −$23,400 |
| Jan 26, 19:47 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots -4.5 | 49¢ | $39,400 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +1.5% | +0.5% | 316h | lost −$39,400 |
| Jan 25, 23:21 UTC | Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)2025_21_LA_SEA | Rams -2.5 | 51¢ | $5,100 | 50¢ | 51¢ | −2.0% | −1.0% | 0h | lost −$5,100 |
| Jan 25, 19:02 UTC | Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.52025_21_NE_DEN | Over 42.5 | 51¢ | $10,200 | no consensus | 51¢ | — | −1.0% | 1h | lost −$10,200 |
| Jan 23, 18:10 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-4.5)2025_21_NE_DEN | Broncos -4.5 | 52¢ | $10,400 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +6.7% | 50h | won +$9,600 |
| Jan 18, 15:53 UTC | Rams vs. Bears2025_20_LA_CHI | Bears | 35¢ | $7,000 | 36¢ | 36¢ | +2.0% | +1.4% | 8h | lost −$7,000 |
| Jan 18, 15:16 UTC | Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.52025_20_HOU_NE | Under 41.5 | 53¢ | $22,260 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | −0.9% | 5h | lost −$22,260 |
| Jan 17, 21:19 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-1.5)2025_20_BUF_DEN | Bills -1.5 | 49¢ | $5,764 | 50¢ | 51¢ | +2.0% | +3.1% | 0h | lost −$5,764 |
| Jan 17, 15:14 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.52025_20_SF_SEA | Under 45.5 | 54¢ | $3,956 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +2.8% | 10h | lost −$3,956 |
| Jan 16, 15:14 UTC | Rams vs. Bears2025_20_LA_CHI | Rams | 64¢ | $17,920 | 64¢ | 65¢ | +0.5% | +0.8% | 56h | won +$10,080 |
| Jan 16, 13:57 UTC | Spread: Rams (-3.5)2025_20_LA_CHI | Rams -3.5 | 51¢ | $20,910 | 51¢ | 51¢ | −0.2% | −1.0% | 58h | lost −$20,910 |
| Jan 15, 13:39 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | 49ers | 25¢ | $18,842 | 28¢ | 28¢ | +12.7% | +14.0% | 59h | lost −$18,842 |
| Jan 14, 19:14 UTC | Spread: Rams (-3.5)2025_20_LA_CHI | Bears -3.5 | 48¢ | $9,383 | 49¢ | 50¢ | +2.3% | +3.1% | 100h | won +$10,165 |
| Jan 12, 17:01 UTC | Texans vs. Steelers2025_19_HOU_PIT | Steelers | 41¢ | $8,200 | 41¢ | 42¢ | +1.0% | +1.2% | 8h | lost −$8,200 |
| Jan 12, 01:14 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)2025_19_LAC_NE | Chargers -3.5 | 49¢ | $680 | 50¢ | 50¢ | +2.9% | +1.0% | 0h | lost −$680 |
| Jan 11, 15:56 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-6.5)2025_19_SF_PHI | Eagles -6.5 | 47¢ | $4,423 | no consensus | 46¢ | — | −3.2% | 6h | lost −$4,423 |
| Jan 11, 13:51 UTC | 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 44.52025_19_SF_PHI | Under 44.5 | 52¢ | $27,507 | 50¢ | 52¢ | −3.9% | −1.0% | 8h | won +$25,391 |
| Jan 10, 18:15 UTC | Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.52025_19_GB_CHI | Over 44.5 | 50¢ | $17,071 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | +10.1% | 7h | won +$16,782 |
| Jan 10, 17:39 UTC | Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.52025_19_GB_CHI | Under 44.5 | 51¢ | $2,048 | no consensus | 45¢ | — | −12.8% | 7h | lost −$2,048 |
| Jan 9, 13:56 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars2025_19_BUF_JAX | Bills | 48¢ | $43,754 | 47¢ | 45¢ | −1.6% | −5.3% | 52h | won +$48,313 |
| Jan 7, 15:31 UTC | Spread: Eagles (-4.5)2025_19_SF_PHI | Eagles -4.5 | 53¢ | $8,538 | no consensus | 52¢ | — | −2.3% | 102h | lost −$8,538 |
| Jan 6, 20:33 UTC | Bills vs. Jaguars2025_19_BUF_JAX | Jaguars | 51¢ | $8,202 | 53¢ | 55¢ | +4.3% | +6.7% | 118h | lost −$8,202 |
| Jan 6, 15:14 UTC | 49ers vs. Eagles2025_19_SF_PHI | Eagles | 67¢ | $23,450 | 68¢ | 69¢ | +1.5% | +2.2% | 126h | lost −$23,450 |
Grade another wallet