Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
bossoskil
0x0d3b10b8eac8b089c6e4a695e65d8e044167c46b · Notable-Fantasy·Oct 12, 2025 → Jan 10, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 49
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- −0.0%
- 95% CI −0.9% to +0.9%
- p-value
- 0.518
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- —
- mean CLV is not positive
vs Polymarket close
−0.5%
95% CI −1.3% to +0.3%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
−0.0%
95% CI −0.9% to +0.9%
101 of 147 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.5%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
147
positions
$20,634,509
staked
$18,578,127
volume
−$1,933,454
realised pnl
−9.4%
roi
0
open positions
147
settled positions
$1,275,308
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 81 | +0.2% | 0.6% | −9.8% | no |
| spreads | 20 | −0.9% | 0.5% | +4.1% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 147. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 16:12 UTC | Spread: Rams (-10.5)2025_19_LA_CAR | Panthers -10.5 | 52¢ | $10,011 | no consensus | 53¢ | — | +1.0% | 5h | won +$9,241 |
| Jan 6, 19:25 UTC | Packers vs. Bears2025_19_GB_CHI | Bears | 49¢ | $19,961 | 46¢ | 46¢ | −6.7% | −7.1% | 102h | won +$20,776 |
| Jan 6, 16:55 UTC | Spread: Rams (-10.5)2025_19_LA_CAR | Rams -10.5 | 47¢ | $9,050 | no consensus | 48¢ | — | +1.1% | 101h | lost −$9,050 |
| Jan 6, 04:21 UTC | Packers vs. Bears2025_19_GB_CHI | Packers | 50¢ | $17,987 | 54¢ | 55¢ | +8.6% | +9.0% | 117h | lost −$17,987 |
| Jan 4, 21:16 UTC | Spread: Patriots (-13.5)2025_18_MIA_NE | Patriots -13.5 | 55¢ | $55 | no consensus | 54¢ | — | −2.7% | 0h | won +$45 |
| Jan 4, 21:05 UTC | Spread: Bills (-11.5)2025_18_NYJ_BUF | Bills -11.5 | 52¢ | $727 | no consensus | 51¢ | — | −2.9% | 0h | won +$671 |
| Jan 4, 21:04 UTC | Spread: Bills (-12.5)2025_18_NYJ_BUF | Bills -12.5 | 52¢ | $64,002 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | −6.3% | 0h | won +$59,689 |
| Jan 4, 20:59 UTC | Spread: Bears (-4.5)2025_18_DET_CHI | Lions -4.5 | 56¢ | $44,251 | no consensus | 56¢ | — | −0.2% | 0h | won +$35,296 |
| Jan 4, 20:58 UTC | Lions vs. Bears2025_18_DET_CHI | Lions | 37¢ | $9,361 | 38¢ | 38¢ | +2.5% | +0.2% | 0h | won +$15,646 |
| Jan 4, 20:56 UTC | Chiefs vs. Raiders2025_18_KC_LV | Raiders | 35¢ | $4,643 | 35¢ | 36¢ | +1.0% | +1.4% | 1h | won +$8,622 |
| Jan 4, 20:52 UTC | Spread: Bears (-3.5)2025_18_DET_CHI | Lions -3.5 | 52¢ | $42,094 | 51¢ | 52¢ | −1.7% | −0.9% | 1h | won +$38,887 |
| Jan 4, 20:50 UTC | Chiefs vs. Raiders2025_18_KC_LV | Chiefs | 63¢ | $23 | 65¢ | 65¢ | +2.6% | +2.4% | 1h | lost −$23 |
| Jan 4, 20:29 UTC | Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)2025_18_KC_LV | Raiders -6.5 | 59¢ | $321 | no consensus | 61¢ | — | +3.4% | 1h | won +$223 |
| Jan 4, 20:27 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-14.5)2025_18_LAC_DEN | Broncos -14.5 | 52¢ | $24,250 | 50¢ | 52¢ | −3.4% | −0.5% | 1h | won +$22,603 |
| Jan 4, 18:30 UTC | Spread: Broncos (-13.5)2025_18_LAC_DEN | Broncos -13.5 | 55¢ | $176,114 | no consensus | 59¢ | — | +5.7% | 3h | won +$141,947 |
| Jan 4, 17:45 UTC | Saints vs. Falcons2025_18_NO_ATL | Saints | 35¢ | $24,014 | 35¢ | 36¢ | +0.1% | +1.4% | 0h | lost −$24,014 |
| Jan 4, 17:44 UTC | Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)2025_18_DAL_NYG | Cowboys -3.5 | 45¢ | $1,729 | no consensus | 47¢ | — | +3.3% | 0h | lost −$1,729 |
| Jan 4, 17:37 UTC | Spread: Jaguars (-13.5)2025_18_TEN_JAX | Jaguars -13.5 | 48¢ | $96 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | +1.0% | 0h | won +$104 |
| Jan 4, 17:32 UTC | Spread: Falcons (-3.5)2025_18_NO_ATL | Saints -3.5 | 49¢ | $63,864 | no consensus | 49¢ | — | −1.0% | 1h | won +$66,470 |
| Jan 4, 17:25 UTC | Spread: Jaguars (-12.5)2025_18_TEN_JAX | Titans -12.5 | 49¢ | $145,522 | 50¢ | 48¢ | +1.7% | −3.4% | 1h | lost −$145,522 |
| Jan 4, 17:13 UTC | Cowboys vs. Giants2025_18_DAL_NYG | Cowboys | 60¢ | $53,511 | 60¢ | 62¢ | +0.3% | +2.5% | 1h | lost −$53,511 |
| Jan 4, 17:07 UTC | Spread: Jaguars (-13.5)2025_18_TEN_JAX | Titans -13.5 | 52¢ | $380,182 | no consensus | 52¢ | — | −1.5% | 1h | lost −$380,182 |
| Jan 4, 16:51 UTC | Titans vs. Jaguars2025_18_TEN_JAX | Titans | 13¢ | $5,247 | 15¢ | 14¢ | +16.7% | +7.7% | 1h | lost −$5,247 |
| Jan 4, 16:12 UTC | Spread: Bears (-3.5)2025_18_DET_CHI | Bears -3.5 | 53¢ | $79,500 | 49¢ | 49¢ | −7.7% | −8.5% | 5h | lost −$79,500 |
| Jan 4, 16:12 UTC | Lions vs. Bears2025_18_DET_CHI | Bears | 65¢ | $24,812 | 62¢ | 63¢ | −5.2% | −3.9% | 5h | lost −$24,812 |
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