Wallet verdict · 2025 NFL season
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0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d · Unpleasant-Outfit·Nov 21, 2025 → Feb 8, 2026·last active (true raw last on-chain fill, not just the last graded bet)
- Skill score
- 78
- 0–100, logistic of the t-stat
- CLV vs sportsbook close
- +1.9%
- 95% CI −0.8% to +4.9%
- p-value
- 0.091
- one-sided bootstrap, H0: CLV ≤ 0
- Bets to significance
- 4
- at this rate, 52 total
vs Polymarket close
+1.6%
95% CI −0.6% to +3.9%
what Polymarket's own leaderboards measure
vs sportsbook close
+1.9%
95% CI −0.8% to +4.9%
48 of 64 bets had ≥ 4 books at the line
Venue drift
−0.3%
Little drift between the two closes. What this wallet earns against Polymarket, it also earns against the books.
64
positions
$5,158,657
staked
$4,976,284
volume
−$448,563
realised pnl
−8.7%
roi
0
open positions
64
settled positions
$467,378
biggest position
Cumulative
CLV in units vs realised PnL
A skilled book climbs steadily on the blue line whatever the grey one does.
Distribution
CLV per bet
Edge shows as mass right of zero, not as a few huge wins.
Segment survival
Where the edge lives — and where it doesn't
| Market | n | clv book | ± se | roi | survives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moneyline | 43 | +2.0% | 1.7% | −14.8% | no |
| spreads | 3 | +1.0% | 2.0% | −52.5% | n<30 |
| totals | 2 | +2.7% | 3.7% | +100.2% | n<30 |
Side
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Price
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Placed before kickoff
Locked. Pro shows this cut with n, CLV and ROI per segment.
Ledger — every graded bet, verifiable
Every graded position, on-chain
Each row below is a real on-chain fill — traceable back to this wallet's Polymarket trade history, not a claim to take on faith.
Most recent 25 shown. Pro shows all 64. Get Pro — $29/mo →
| placed | market | side | price | stake | book close | pm close | clv book | clv pm | t−kick | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 22:03 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Patriots | 32¢ | $89,075 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +3.4% | +1.6% | 2h | lost −$89,075 |
| Feb 6, 07:09 UTC | Seahawks vs. Patriots2025_22_SEA_NE | Seahawks | 68¢ | $323,283 | 67¢ | 68¢ | −1.0% | −0.1% | 64h | won +$155,074 |
| Jan 13, 20:10 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | 49ers | 23¢ | $42 | 28¢ | 28¢ | +22.5% | +23.9% | 101h | lost −$42 |
| Jan 13, 17:37 UTC | Bills vs. Broncos2025_20_BUF_DEN | Bills | 49¢ | $4,055 | 48¢ | 47¢ | −2.9% | −5.1% | 100h | lost −$4,055 |
| Jan 13, 17:33 UTC | 49ers vs. Seahawks2025_20_SF_SEA | Seahawks | 75¢ | $162 | 72¢ | 72¢ | −4.7% | −5.1% | 103h | won +$53 |
| Jan 13, 00:17 UTC | Spread: Texans (-6.5)2025_19_HOU_PIT | Steelers -6.5 | 64¢ | $32,886 | no consensus | 66¢ | — | +2.3% | 1h | lost −$32,886 |
| Jan 4, 21:23 UTC | Lions vs. Bears2025_18_DET_CHI | Bears | 61¢ | $3 | 62¢ | 63¢ | +1.1% | +2.5% | 0h | lost −$3 |
| Jan 4, 03:43 UTC | Cardinals vs. Rams2025_18_ARI_LA | Rams | 87¢ | $16,993 | 89¢ | 92¢ | +2.7% | +5.2% | 18h | won +$2,539 |
| Dec 29, 06:54 UTC | Ravens vs. Steelers2025_18_BAL_PIT | Steelers | 37¢ | $1,689 | 33¢ | 33¢ | −10.9% | −12.2% | 163h | won +$2,876 |
| Dec 28, 21:26 UTC | Lions vs. Bears2025_18_DET_CHI | Lions | 38¢ | $2 | 38¢ | 38¢ | +0.9% | −1.3% | 168h | won +$3 |
| Dec 28, 21:26 UTC | Browns vs. Bengals2025_18_CLE_CIN | Bengals | 70¢ | $217 | 79¢ | 79¢ | +12.1% | +11.9% | 165h | lost −$217 |
| Dec 28, 21:25 UTC | Dolphins vs. Patriots2025_18_MIA_NE | Patriots | 76¢ | $165 | 88¢ | 89¢ | +15.9% | +16.6% | 168h | won +$52 |
| Dec 28, 17:59 UTC | Cardinals vs. Bengals2025_17_ARI_CIN | Bengals | 74¢ | $2,747 | 74¢ | 75¢ | +0.1% | +0.7% | 0h | won +$965 |
| Dec 25, 21:24 UTC | Broncos vs. Chiefs2025_17_DEN_KC | Broncos | 86¢ | $91,957 | 87¢ | 88¢ | +1.6% | +1.7% | 4h | won +$14,962 |
| Dec 21, 21:25 UTC | Raiders vs. Texans2025_16_LV_HOU | Texans | 89¢ | $10 | 89¢ | 90¢ | +0.3% | +0.6% | 0h | won +$1 |
| Dec 21, 00:50 UTC | Cowboys vs. Commanders2025_17_DAL_WAS | Cowboys | 66¢ | $10 | 79¢ | 79¢ | +19.9% | +18.9% | 113h | won +$5 |
| Dec 20, 22:02 UTC | Eagles vs. Commanders2025_16_PHI_WAS | Eagles | 74¢ | $3 | 75¢ | 75¢ | +1.1% | +0.7% | 0h | won +$1 |
| Dec 16, 04:18 UTC | Cowboys vs. Commanders2025_17_DAL_WAS | Commanders | 27¢ | $4 | 21¢ | 22¢ | −22.7% | −20.4% | 230h | lost −$4 |
| Dec 16, 04:17 UTC | 49ers vs. Colts2025_16_SF_IND | Colts | 29¢ | $3 | 34¢ | 34¢ | +16.8% | +15.5% | 165h | lost −$3 |
| Dec 16, 04:16 UTC | Patriots vs. Ravens2025_16_NE_BAL | Patriots | 41¢ | $5 | 36¢ | 36¢ | −12.3% | −13.4% | 141h | won +$7 |
| Dec 16, 04:16 UTC | Chargers vs. Cowboys2025_16_LAC_DAL | Chargers | 46¢ | $2,470 | 48¢ | 47¢ | +3.0% | +0.2% | 134h | won +$2,852 |
| Dec 16, 00:25 UTC | Spread: Steelers (-3.5)2025_15_MIA_PIT | Dolphins -3.5 | 52¢ | $54,167 | 51¢ | 52¢ | −1.8% | −1.0% | 1h | lost −$54,167 |
| Dec 14, 17:59 UTC | Jets vs. Jaguars2025_15_NYJ_JAX | Jaguars | 87¢ | $200,769 | 87¢ | 87¢ | +0.2% | −0.6% | 0h | won +$30,000 |
| Dec 14, 17:57 UTC | Browns vs. Bears2025_15_CLE_CHI | Bears | 75¢ | $454,333 | 76¢ | 75¢ | +1.4% | −0.3% | 0h | won +$154,000 |
| Dec 13, 09:12 UTC | Broncos vs. Chiefs2025_17_DEN_KC | Chiefs | 14¢ | $14,232 | 13¢ | 13¢ | −10.7% | −11.6% | 304h | lost −$14,232 |
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