Jets @ Bears · Week 4

2026 · Week 4 · Oct 4, 17:00 UTC · Soldier Field

Jets

3–14 · 7–10 ATS · 11–6 O/U('25)

Bears

12–7 · 11–7 ATS · 9–10 O/U('25)

spread · CHI: -9
total: 45.5
fair ml: —
books: 3
open → now: -8.5 → -9

line moved 0.5 toward CHI

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:30 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Chicago Bears	New York Jets	updated
Betr	-417	+310	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-425	+305	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-425	+330	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

Not enough books at a shared line for a consensus yet.

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -8.8

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

NYJseason form · league percentileCHI

12
off EPA/play
75
3
def EPA/play
47
9
success rate
72
3
pass over expected
31
0
explosive pass rate
84
66
explosive rush rate
81
6
sacks allowed/dropback
97

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	NYJ	CHI	NYJ	CHI
off EPA/play	-.284	.103	-.141	.073
def EPA/play	.274	.149	.151	.020
success rate	.350	.451	.400	.454
pass over expected	-10.9	-3.4	-9.3	-4.0
explosive pass rate	.019	.074	.025	.058
explosive rush rate	.032	.040	.052	.057
sacks allowed/dropback	.095

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

NYJ

Breece Hall · RB (Thigh)36 rec, 350 yds; 1065 rush yds; 4 pass ydshigh impactQuestionable
Isaiah Davis · RB (Knee)21 rec, 186 yds; 236 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
VJ Payne · DB (Undisclosed)IR
Mykal Walker · LB (Undisclosed)IR

Polymarket

Jets vs. Bears

bid: 5¢
ask: 34¢
24h vol: —

▼ +2.0% today

Spread: Bears (-6.5)

bid: 40¢
ask: 75¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bears (-7.5)

bid: 37¢
ask: 72¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bears (-8.5)

bid: 37¢
ask: 64¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bears (-9.5)

bid: 28¢
ask: 63¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bears (-10.5)

bid: 25¢
ask: 60¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

68 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 36–30–2(55%)
over rate: 46%
avg margin: 14.0
avg total: 46.2

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
TB @ KC 2024	+9	45.5	+6	54	dog	over
DEN @ BAL 2024	+9	46.5	+31	51	fav	over
LV @ CIN 2024	+8	45	+17	65	fav

Head to head

CHI leads 5–27 meetings since 1999

2022-11-27CHI @ NYJ10-31NYJ won
2018-10-28NYJ @ CHI10-24CHI won
2014-09-22CHI @ NYJ27-19CHI won
2010-12-26NYJ @ CHI34-38CHI won
2006-11-19CHI @ NYJ10-0CHI won
2002-12-15NYJ @ CHI13-20CHI won
2000-11-26CHI @ NYJ10-17NYJ won

← All games

Kingsley Jonathan · DT (Thigh)

Chase Curtis · TE (Knee)IR

Anez Cooper · G (Shoulder)IR

Tre Brown · CB (Undisclosed)IR

Connor Hulstein · TE (Undisclosed)IR

Dominic Richardson · RB (Undisclosed)IR

Kenyon Sadiq · TE (Abdomen)Questionable

D'Angelo Ponds · DB (Calf)Questionable

Nahshon Wright · CB (Hip)Questionable

Joseph Ossai · DE (Foot)Questionable

Qwan'tez Stiggers · CB (Knee)Questionable

Da'Quan Felton · WR (Undisclosed)Questionable

Tyler Baron · DE (Knee)PUP

CHI

Kyle Monangai · RB (Knee)23 rec, 222 yds; 846 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Luther Burden · WR (Lower Body)53 rec, 718 yds; 33 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Brittain Brown · RB (Undisclosed)37 rush ydslow impactIR
Ray-Ray McCloud · WR (Undisclosed)7 rec, 69 ydslow impactIR
Tony Fields · LB (Undisclosed)IR
Nikola Kalinic · TE (Knee)IR
Dallis Flowers · CB (Undisclosed)IR
Jonathan Garvin · LB (Undisclosed)IR
Jaylon Jones · CB (Undisclosed)IR
Coby Bryant · DB (Knee)Out
Dontae Manning · CB (Undisclosed)IR
Nephi Sewell · LB (Concussion)IR
Ruben Hyppolite · LB (Shoulder)IR
Elijah Hicks · DB (Shin)Questionable
Xavier Woods · DB (Groin)Questionable
Austin Booker · DL (Groin)Questionable
Keyshaun Elliott · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable
Tyrique Stevenson · CB (Undisclosed)Questionable
Jaylon Johnson · DB (Arm)Questionable
Beanie Bishop · CB (Suspension)Sus
Kyler Gordon · DB (Undisclosed)PUP
Noah Sewell · LB (Achilles)PUP
Shemar Turner · DE (Knee - ACL)PUP