Patriots @ Bills · Week 4

2026 · Week 4 · Oct 4, 17:00 UTC · Highmark Stadium

Patriots

17–4 · 14–7 ATS · 12–9 O/U('25)

Bills

13–6 · 9–10 ATS · 10–9 O/U('25)

spread · BUF: -3
total: 49.5
fair ml: —
books: 3
open: -3 / 49.5

on the key number 3

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Buffalo Bills	New England Patriots	updated
Betr	-189	+150	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-200	+160	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-166	+140	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

Not enough books at a shared line for a consensus yet.

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -3.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

NEseason form · league percentileBUF

91
off EPA/play
100
78
def EPA/play
59
78
success rate
94
84
pass over expected
50
97
explosive pass rate
84
72
explosive rush rate
94
16
sacks allowed/dropback
44

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	NE	BUF	NE	BUF
off EPA/play	-.076	.124	.104	.139
def EPA/play	-.274	-.082	-.090	-.016
success rate	.422	.505	.464	.488
pass over expected	-.082	-3.5	1.6	-2.7
explosive pass rate	.059	.047	.066	.057
explosive rush rate	.054	.060	.052	.063
sacks allowed/dropback	.112

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

TreVeyon Henderson · RB (Leg)40 rec, 254 yds; 987 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Julian Hill · TE (Knee)15 rec, 140 ydsmed impactIR
Bryce Baringer · P (Undisclosed)IR
Isaiah Iton · DL (Undisclosed)IR

Polymarket

Patriots vs. Bills

bid: 31¢
ask: 45¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Bills (-1.5)

bid: 35¢
ask: 70¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bills (-3.5)

bid: 27¢
ask: 62¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bills (-4.5)

bid: 24¢
ask: 59¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bills (-6.5)

bid: 18¢
ask: 52¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bills (-7.5)

bid: 15¢
ask: 49¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

37 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 13–23–1(36%)
over rate: 38%
avg margin: 0.8
avg total: 47.6

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
LA @ SF 2024	+3	48.5	-6	18	dog	under
BUF @ MIA 2024	+2.5	48.5	-21	41	dog	under
DET @ CHI 2022	+3	48.5	-1	61	dog	over

Head to head

NE leads 39–1655 meetings since 1999

2025-12-14BUF @ NE35-31BUF won
2025-10-05NE @ BUF23-20NE won
2025-01-05BUF @ NE16-23NE won
2024-12-22NE @ BUF21-24BUF won
2023-12-31NE @ BUF21-27BUF won
2023-10-22BUF @ NE25-29NE won
2023-01-08NE @ BUF23-35BUF won
2022-12-01BUF @ NE24-10BUF won

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