Dolphins @ Vikings · Week 4

2026 · Week 4 · Oct 4, 20:05 UTC · U.S. Bank Stadium

Dolphins

7–10 · 8–9 ATS · 10–7 O/U('25)

Vikings

9–8 · 9–8 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

spread · MIN: -7.5
total: 43.5
fair ml: —
books: 4
open: -7.5 / 43.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	updated
Betr	+290	-385	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	+280	-370	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	+310	-395	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

Not enough books at a shared line for a consensus yet.

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -7.3

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

MIAseason form · league percentileMIN

38
off EPA/play
16
19
def EPA/play
91
22
success rate
28
12
pass over expected
59
56
explosive pass rate
16
84
explosive rush rate
75
34
sacks allowed/dropback
0

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	MIA	MIN	MIA	MIN
off EPA/play	-.025	.032	-.018	-.135
def EPA/play	.107	-.298	.086	-.113
success rate	.431	.454	.419	.420
pass over expected	-6.9	-1.2	-5.6	-1.4
explosive pass rate	.055	.036	.046	.040
explosive rush rate	.056	.057	.058	.056
sacks allowed/dropback	.075

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Indoors — U.S. Bank Stadium (dome). Weather is not a factor.

Missing players

MIA

Ollie Gordon · RB (Undisclosed)7 rec, 32 yds; 199 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
Ben Sims · TE (Undisclosed)3 rec, 30 ydslow impactQuestionable
Kenneth Grant · DL (Leg)IR
Rene Konga · DL (Undisclosed)IR

Polymarket

Dolphins vs. Vikings

bid: 12¢
ask: 28¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Vikings (-3.5)

bid: 45¢
ask: 80¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Vikings (-4.5)

bid: 42¢
ask: 77¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Vikings (-6.5)

bid: 35¢
ask: 70¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Vikings (-7.5)

bid: 34¢
ask: 61¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Vikings (-10.5)

bid: 21¢
ask: 56¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

45 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 23–22(51%)
over rate: 60%
avg margin: 6.0
avg total: 46.8

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
MIA @ ATL 2025	+7	44.5	-24	44	dog	under
LV @ LA 2024	+7	43	+5	35	dog	under
LA @ DAL 2023	+6.5	44.5	+23	63	fav

Head to head

MIN leads 4–37 meetings since 1999

2022-10-16MIN @ MIA24-16MIN won
2018-12-16MIA @ MIN17-41MIN won
2014-12-21MIN @ MIA35-37MIA won
2010-09-19MIA @ MIN14-10MIA won
2006-11-19MIN @ MIA20-24MIA won
2002-12-21MIA @ MIN17-20MIN won
2000-09-10MIA @ MIN7-13MIN won

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