Seahawks @ Commanders · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 17:00 UTC · Northwest Stadium

Seahawks

17–3 · 15–5 ATS · 11–9 O/U('25)

Commanders

5–12 · 7–10 ATS · 10–7 O/U('25)

spread · WAS: +3.5
total: 46.5
fair ml: 38¢ home
books: 5
open: +3.5 / 46.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Commanders	updated
Bet Right	-189	+155	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	-189	+150	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-195	+145	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-192	+160	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Commanders 38¢ / Seahawks 62¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fair

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · 3.3

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

SEAseason form · league percentileWAS

75
off EPA/play
50
94
def EPA/play
6
84
success rate
75
9
pass over expected
28
81
explosive pass rate
28
88
explosive rush rate
94
72
sacks allowed/dropback
41

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	SEA	WAS	SEA	WAS
off EPA/play	.075	-.077	.058	.008
def EPA/play	-.263	.146	-.142	.143
success rate	.451	.427	.465	.457
pass over expected	-7.5	-8.1	-6.6	-4.4
explosive pass rate	.022	.040	.055	.042
explosive rush rate	.076	.071	.058	.061
sacks allowed/dropback	.074

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

SEA

Zach Charbonnet · RB (Knee - ACL)20 rec, 144 yds; 750 rush ydshigh impactPUP
Emanuel Wilson · RB (Hamstring)15 rec, 99 yds; 499 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
Tory Horton · WR (Undisclosed)13 rec, 161 ydsmed impactQuestionable
Jake Bobo · WR (Knee)

Polymarket

Seahawks vs. Commanders

bid: 57¢
ask: 68¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)

bid: 31¢
ask: 84¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)

bid: 45¢
ask: 55¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

bid: 23¢
ask: 75¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)

bid: 17¢
ask: 69¢
24h vol: —

Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 44.5

bid: 28¢
ask: 80¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

125 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 65–55–5(54%)
over rate: 42%
avg margin: -3.0
avg total: 46.2

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
SEA @ NE 2025	-4.5	45.5	-16	42	fav	under
SF @ NYG 2025	-2.5	47.5	-10	58	fav	over
SEA @ WAS 2025	-2.5	47.5	-24	52

Head to head

WAS leads 8–715 meetings since 1999

2025-11-02SEA @ WAS38-14SEA won
2023-11-12WAS @ SEA26-29SEA won
2021-11-29SEA @ WAS15-17WAS won
2020-12-20SEA @ WAS20-15SEA won
2017-11-05WAS @ SEA17-14WAS won
2014-10-06SEA @ WAS27-17SEA won
2013-01-06SEA @ WAS24-14SEA won
2011-11-27WAS @ SEA23-17WAS won

← All games

Aaron Smith · LB (Undisclosed)IR

Irv Charles · WR (Undisclosed)IR

Robbie Ouzts · RB (Undisclosed)IR

Brock Lampe · FB (Undisclosed)IR

Bud Clark · DB (Ankle)IR

Power Echols · LB (Undisclosed)IR

Mason Richman · OL (Knee)IR

Amari Kight · OT (Undisclosed)IR

Nick Emmanwori · DB (Ankle)Questionable

Julian Neal · DB (Leg)Questionable

Brandon Pili · DT (Lower Leg)Questionable

Chris Paul · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable

Terrion Arnold · DB (Undisclosed)NA

WAS

Rachaad White · RB (Undisclosed)40 rec, 218 yds; 572 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Jacory Croskey-Merritt · RB (Undisclosed)9 rec, 68 yds; 805 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Jeremy McNichols · RB (Quadriceps)25 rec, 196 yds; 221 rush ydsmed impactIR
Marcus Mariota · QB (Knee)297 rush yds; 1695 pass ydsmed impactQuestionable
Jerome Ford · RB (Hamstring)26 rec, 103 yds; 73 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
Ben Sinnott · TE (Oblique)11 rec, 114 ydsmed impactQuestionable
John Bates · TE (Hamstring)11 rec, 103 ydsmed impactQuestionable
Laremy Tunsil · OL (Triceps)IR
Drake Jackson · DL (Undisclosed)IR
Malik Spencer · DB (Undisclosed)IR
Jer'Zhan Newton · DL (Pectoral)IR
Trey Amos · DB (Ankle)IR
Odafe Oweh · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable
Tim Settle · DT (Calf)Questionable
Jordan Magee · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable
Nick Allegretti · G (Calf)Questionable
K'Lavon Chaisson · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable
Dorance Armstrong · DE (Suspension)Sus
Deatrich Wise · DE (Undisclosed)PUP