Jets @ Lions · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 17:00 UTC · Ford Field

Jets

3–14 · 7–10 ATS · 11–6 O/U('25)

Lions

9–8 · 8–9 ATS · 10–7 O/U('25)

spread · DET: -9.5
total: 45.5
fair ml: 79¢ home
books: 4
open: -9.5 / 45.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:30 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Detroit Lions	New York Jets	updated
Bet Right	-455	+350	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	-476	+345	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-525	+375	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-410	+320	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Lions 79¢ / Jets 21¢ — best price: Jets at williamhill_us +1.4% above fair.

fairworsebetter

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -9.8

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

NYJseason form · league percentileDET

12
off EPA/play
84
3
def EPA/play
53
9
success rate
69
3
pass over expected
22
0
explosive pass rate
94
66
explosive rush rate
34
6
sacks allowed/dropback
47

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	NYJ	DET	NYJ	DET
off EPA/play	-.284	.054	-.141	.081
def EPA/play	.274	.020	.151	-.006
success rate	.350	.425	.400	.452
pass over expected	-10.9	-1.5	-9.3	-4.8
explosive pass rate	.019	.076	.025	.063
explosive rush rate	.032	.024	.052	.042
sacks allowed/dropback	.095

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Indoors — Ford Field (dome). Weather is not a factor.

Missing players

NYJ

Breece Hall · RB (Thigh)36 rec, 350 yds; 1065 rush yds; 4 pass ydshigh impactQuestionable
Isaiah Davis · RB (Knee)21 rec, 186 yds; 236 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
VJ Payne · DB (Undisclosed)IR
Mykal Walker · LB (Undisclosed)IR

Polymarket

Jets vs. Lions

bid: 3¢
ask: 26¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Lions (-6.5)

bid: 43¢
ask: 78¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Lions (-7.5)

bid: 40¢
ask: 75¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Lions (-10.5)

bid: 28¢
ask: 63¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Lions (-11.5)

bid: 25¢
ask: 60¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Lions (-14.5)

bid: 16¢
ask: 51¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

36 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 17–18–1(49%)
over rate: 56%
avg margin: 10.1
avg total: 49.0

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
ARI @ IND 2025	+8.5	46.5	+4	58	dog	over
CLE @ DET 2025	+10	44.5	+24	44	fav	under
CHI @ LAC 2023	+9.5	46	+17	43

Head to head

NYJ leads 4–37 meetings since 1999

2022-12-18DET @ NYJ20-17DET won
2018-09-10NYJ @ DET48-17NYJ won
2014-09-28DET @ NYJ24-17DET won
2010-11-07NYJ @ DET23-20NYJ won
2006-10-22DET @ NYJ24-31NYJ won
2002-11-17NYJ @ DET31-14NYJ won
2000-12-17DET @ NYJ10-7DET won

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