Chargers @ Bills · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 17:00 UTC · Highmark Stadium

Chargers

11–7 · 9–9 ATS · 7–11 O/U('25)

Bills

13–6 · 9–10 ATS · 10–9 O/U('25)

spread · BUF: -3
total: 48.5
fair ml: 60¢ home
books: 4
open: -3 / 48.5

on the key number 3

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Buffalo Bills	Los Angeles Chargers	updated
Bet Right	-167	+138	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	-169	+135	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-180	+140	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-162	+136	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Bills 60¢ / Chargers 40¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -3.0

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

LACseason form · league percentileBUF

25
off EPA/play
100
75
def EPA/play
59
47
success rate
94
75
pass over expected
50
16
explosive pass rate
84
47
explosive rush rate
94
12
sacks allowed/dropback
44

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	LAC	BUF	LAC	BUF
off EPA/play	-.096	.124	-.043	.139
def EPA/play	-.085	-.082	-.084	-.016
success rate	.417	.505	.430	.488
pass over expected	-.602	-3.5	1.1	-2.7
explosive pass rate	.036	.047	.041	.057
explosive rush rate	.045	.060	.047	.063
sacks allowed/dropback	.091

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

LAC

Scott Matlock · DT (Undisclosed)4 rec, 12 ydshigh impactIR
Tre' Harris · WR (Undisclosed)32 rec, 344 yds; 10 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
Keaton Mitchell · RB (Undisclosed)9 rec, 63 yds; 341 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
Branson Taylor · OL (Undisclosed)

Polymarket

Chargers vs. Bills

bid: 34¢
ask: 44¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bills (-1.5)

bid: 45¢
ask: 80¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bills (-3.5)

bid: 38¢
ask: 73¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bills (-4.5)

bid: 35¢
ask: 70¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bills (-6.5)

bid: 27¢
ask: 62¢
24h vol: —

Chargers vs. Bills: O/U 47.5

bid: 27¢
ask: 79¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

130 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 55–73–2(43%)
over rate: 39%
avg margin: 2.2
avg total: 47.6

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
NE @ BAL 2025	+3.5	48.5	-4	52	dog	over
WAS @ MIA 2025	+2.5	47.5	+3	29	fav	under
NE @ TB 2025	+2.5	48.5	-5	51	dog

Head to head

Series tied 2–24 meetings since 1999

2023-12-23BUF @ LAC24-22BUF won
2020-11-29LAC @ BUF17-27BUF won
2018-09-16LAC @ BUF31-20LAC won
2017-11-19BUF @ LAC24-54LAC won

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