Chiefs @ Dolphins · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 17:00 UTC · Hard Rock Stadium

Chiefs

6–11 · 6–11 ATS · 4–13 O/U('25)

Dolphins

7–10 · 8–9 ATS · 10–7 O/U('25)

spread · MIA: +7.5
total: 44.5
fair ml: 23¢ home
books: 5
open: +7.5 / 44.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	updated
Bet Right	-400	+310	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	-417	+310	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-380	+285	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-440	+340	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Dolphins 23¢ / Chiefs 77¢ — best price: Dolphins at draftkings +2.5% above fair.

fairworse

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · 7.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

KCseason form · league percentileMIA

53
off EPA/play
38
62
def EPA/play
19
53
success rate
22
97
pass over expected
12
66
explosive pass rate
56
28
explosive rush rate
84
38
sacks allowed/dropback
34

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	KC	MIA	KC	MIA
off EPA/play	-.276	-.025	.021	-.018
def EPA/play	-.094	.107	-.040	.086
success rate	.335	.431	.439	.419
pass over expected	-1.8	-6.9	3.9	-5.6
explosive pass rate	.032	.055	.049	.046
explosive rush rate	.023	.056	.042	.058
sacks allowed/dropback	.109

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

Kenneth Walker · RB (Foot)40 rec, 386 yds; 1340 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Patrick Mahomes · QB (Knee - ACL)422 rush yds; 3587 pass ydshigh impactQuestionable
John Michael Gyllenborg · TE (Knee)IR
Jimmy Holiday · WR (Undisclosed)IR

Polymarket

Chiefs vs. Dolphins

bid: 72¢
ask: 81¢
24h vol: $100

Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

bid: 29¢
ask: 81¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)

bid: 26¢
ask: 67¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)

bid: 20¢
ask: 61¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)

bid: 28¢
ask: 54¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.5% today

Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)

bid: 9¢
ask: 50¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

44 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 24–19–1(56%)
over rate: 48%
avg margin: -10.2
avg total: 43.5

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
DEN @ WAS 2025	-6.5	43.5	-1	53	dog	over
DEN @ NYJ 2025	-7.5	43.5	-2	24	dog	under
LA @ BAL 2025	-7	43.5	-14	20	fav

Head to head

KC leads 7–310 meetings since 1999

2024-01-13MIA @ KC7-26KC won
2023-11-05MIA @ KC14-21KC won
2020-12-13KC @ MIA33-27KC won
2017-12-24MIA @ KC13-29KC won
2014-09-21KC @ MIA34-15KC won
2011-11-06MIA @ KC31-3MIA won
2008-12-21MIA @ KC38-31MIA won
2006-11-12KC @ MIA10-13MIA won

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