Cardinals @ 49ers · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 20:05 UTC · Levi's Stadium

Cardinals

3–14 · 6–11 ATS · 10–7 O/U('25)

49ers

13–6 · 12–7 ATS · 11–8 O/U('25)

spread · SF: -11.5
total: 46.5
fair ml: 82¢ home
books: 5
open: -11.5 / 46.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Arizona Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	updated
Bet Right	+450	-625	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	+425	-625	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	+400	-600	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	+470	-650	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: 49ers 82¢ / Cardinals 18¢ — best price: Cardinals at draftkings +1.2% above fair.

fairworse

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -11.3

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

ARIseason form · league percentileSF

41
off EPA/play
69
16
def EPA/play
28
38
success rate
91
97
pass over expected
75
50
explosive pass rate
62
6
explosive rush rate
22
28
sacks allowed/dropback
84

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	ARI	SF	ARI	SF
off EPA/play	-.013	-.005	-.014	.050
def EPA/play	.263	.113	.089	.066
success rate	.401	.448	.429	.473
pass over expected	1.4	2.2	3.7	-.424
explosive pass rate	.063	.050	.046	.047
explosive rush rate	.029	.047	.034	.042
sacks allowed/dropback	.083

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

ARI

Trey Benson · RB (Knee)13 rec, 64 yds; 160 rush ydsmed impactIR
James Conner · RB (Foot)8 rec, 38 yds; 95 rush ydsmed impactIR
Xavier Weaver · WR (Concussion)7 rec, 67 ydslow impactIR
Tip Reiman · TE (Ankle)3 rec, 18 yds

Polymarket

Cardinals vs. 49ers

bid: 4¢
ask: 22¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: 49ers (-7.5)

bid: 38¢
ask: 73¢
24h vol: —

Spread: 49ers (-10.5)

bid: 27¢
ask: 62¢
24h vol: —

Spread: 49ers (-11.5)

bid: 44¢
ask: 55¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: 49ers (-12.5)

bid: 21¢
ask: 56¢
24h vol: —

Spread: 49ers (-14.5)

bid: 14¢
ask: 49¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

67 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total.

favourite ats: 31–36(46%)
over rate: 48%
avg margin: 10.8
avg total: 46.2

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
TEN @ JAX 2025	+12.5	46.5	+34	48	fav	over
CLE @ BAL 2025	+12.5	46.5	+24	58	fav	over
DAL @ WAS 2024	+10.5	45	-8	60	dog

Head to head

SF leads 28–2250 meetings since 1999

2025-11-16SF @ ARI41-22SF won
2025-09-21ARI @ SF15-16SF won
2025-01-05SF @ ARI24-47ARI won
2024-10-06ARI @ SF24-23ARI won
2023-12-17SF @ ARI45-29SF won
2023-10-01ARI @ SF16-35SF won
2023-01-08ARI @ SF13-38SF won
2022-11-21SF @ ARI38-10SF won

← All games

Chase Bisontis · G (Knee - MCL)IR

Zach Carter · DL (Knee)IR

Joey Blount · DB (Undisclosed)IR

Kaleb Proctor · DT (Knee - Meniscus)IR

Jameson Geers · TE (Undisclosed)IR

Dadrion Taylor-Demerson · DB (Ribs)Questionable

Will Johnson · DB (Lower Body)Questionable

Blake Gillikin · P (Groin)Questionable

Jeremiyah Love · RB (Ankle)Questionable

Christian McCaffrey · RB (Undisclosed)113 rec, 1029 yds; 1285 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Kyle Juszczyk · FB (Finger)29 rec, 273 ydshigh impactQuestionable
George Kittle · TE (Achilles)58 rec, 634 ydshigh impactQuestionable
Christian Kirk · WR (Calf)38 rec, 403 ydsmed impactIR
Ricky Pearsall · WR (Knee - PCL)36 rec, 528 ydsmed impactIR
Mike Evans · WR (Foot)30 rec, 368 ydsmed impactQuestionable
Andrew Farmer · LB (Back)IR
Darrick Forrest · DB (Undisclosed)IR
Austen Pleasants · OL (Knee)IR
Victor Dimukeje · LB (Undisclosed)IR
Mikail Kamara · DE (Knee)IR
Brett Toth · OL (Concussion)IR
Nick Zakelj · OL (Undisclosed)IR
Jacob Cowing · WR (Groin)Questionable
Nate Hobbs · CB (Groin)Questionable
Malik Mustapha · DB (Hamstring)Questionable
De'Zhaun Stribling · WR (Shoulder)Questionable
Brayden Willis · TE (Concussion)Questionable
Renardo Green · DB (Hamstring)Questionable
Romello Height · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable
Luke Gifford · LB (Hamstring)Questionable
Ephesians Prysock · CB (Shoulder)Questionable
Kurtis Rourke · QB (Ribs)Questionable
Upton Stout · CB (Hip)Questionable
Keion White · DL (Ankle)Questionable
Gracen Halton · DT (Ankle)Questionable
Vederian Lowe · OT (Ankle)Questionable
Nick Bosa · DE (Knee - ACL)Questionable
Dominick Puni · OL (Concussion)Questionable
Mykel Williams · DL (Knee - ACL)PUP
Isaac Guerendo · RB (Pectoral)PUP
Brandon Aiyuk · WR (Knee - ACL + MCL)DNR