Commanders @ Eagles · Week 1

2026 · Week 1 · Sep 13, 20:25 UTC · Lincoln Financial Field

Commanders

5–12 · 7–10 ATS · 10–7 O/U('25)

Eagles

11–7 · 10–8 ATS · 7–11 O/U('25)

spread · PHI: -4.5
total: 45.5
fair ml: 66¢ home
books: 59
open: -4.5 / 45.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington Commanders	updated
Pinnaclesharp ref	-226	+195	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Bally Bet	-225	+180	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Bet Right	-233	+185	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
BetAnything	-225	+185	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Betclic (FR)	-238	+175	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
Betfair	-250	+162	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	-250	+162	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	-250	+162	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
PointsBet (AU)	-200	+165	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Unibet (SE)	-225	+195	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -4.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

player	line	over	under	books
Jalen Hurts	1.5	+112	-138	4
Jayden Daniels	1.5	+197	+190	4

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

WASseason form · league percentilePHI

50
off EPA/play
62
6
def EPA/play
72
75
success rate
50
28
pass over expected
50
28
explosive pass rate
28
94
explosive rush rate
66
41
sacks allowed/dropback
53

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	WAS	PHI	WAS	PHI
off EPA/play	-.077	.054	.008	.026
def EPA/play	.146	-.115	.143	-.075
success rate	.427	.450	.457	.430
pass over expected	-8.1	-5.3	-4.4	-2.9
explosive pass rate	.040	.025	.042	.042
explosive rush rate	.071	.054	.061	.052
sacks allowed/dropback	.059

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

temperature: 25°C (feels 25°C)
wind: 11 km/h, gusts 17 · 168°
precipitation: 0 mm
humidity: 47%
cloud cover: 57%

source forecast

Missing players

WAS

Rachaad White · RB (Undisclosed)40 rec, 218 yds; 572 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Jacory Croskey-Merritt · RB (Undisclosed)9 rec, 68 yds; 805 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Jeremy McNichols · RB (Quadriceps)25 rec, 196 yds; 221 rush ydsmed impactIR
Marcus Mariota · QB (Knee)

Polymarket

Commanders vs. Eagles

bid: 31¢
ask: 34¢
24h vol: $273

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Eagles (-1.5)

bid: 61¢
ask: 67¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Eagles (-3.5)

bid: 54¢
ask: 56¢
24h vol: $92

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Eagles (-4.5)

bid: 50¢
ask: 52¢
24h vol: $68

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Eagles (-6.5)

bid: 41¢
ask: 46¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Eagles (-7.5)

bid: 34¢
ask: 41¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$66,216
Over$44,757
Eagles$33,247
Commanders$27,259

order book

Commanders

bids

31¢$96

30¢$1,154

29¢$1,073

28¢$1,008

27¢$432

asks

34¢$1,166

35¢$1,440

36¢$1,800

37¢$740

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

71 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 30–41(42%)
over rate: 45%
avg margin: 4.3
avg total: 44.4

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
IND @ JAX 2024	+3.5	45	+3	71	dog	over
CIN @ BAL 2023	+4	46.5	+14	54	fav	over
DAL @ PHI 2023	+3.5	46.5	+5	51

Head to head

PHI leads 34–2155 meetings since 1999

2026-01-04WAS @ PHI24-17WAS won
2025-12-20PHI @ WAS29-18PHI won
2025-01-26WAS @ PHI23-55PHI won
2024-12-22PHI @ WAS33-36WAS won
2024-11-14WAS @ PHI18-26PHI won
2023-10-29PHI @ WAS38-31PHI won
2023-10-01WAS @ PHI31-34PHI won
2022-11-14WAS @ PHI32-21WAS won

← All games

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

52 books · vig removed

Fair: Eagles 66¢ / Commanders 34¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

spread · -4.5

23 books · vig removed

Fair: Eagles 50¢ / Commanders 50¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

total · 45.5

35 books · vig removed

Fair: Over 50¢ / Under 50¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

297 rush yds; 1695 pass yds

med impactQuestionable

Jerome Ford · RB (Hamstring)26 rec, 103 yds; 73 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable

Ben Sinnott · TE (Oblique)11 rec, 114 ydsmed impactQuestionable

John Bates · TE (Hamstring)11 rec, 103 ydsmed impactQuestionable

Laremy Tunsil · OL (Triceps)IR

Drake Jackson · DL (Undisclosed)IR

Malik Spencer · DB (Undisclosed)IR

Jer'Zhan Newton · DL (Pectoral)IR

Trey Amos · DB (Ankle)IR

Odafe Oweh · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable

Tim Settle · DT (Calf)Questionable

Jordan Magee · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable

Nick Allegretti · G (Calf)Questionable

K'Lavon Chaisson · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable

Dorance Armstrong · DE (Suspension)Sus

Deatrich Wise · DE (Undisclosed)PUP

PHI

Grant Calcaterra · TE (Back)9 rec, 76 ydsmed impactIR
Johnny Wilson · WR (Knee)IR
Jakorian Bennett · DB (Knee)IR
Andre' Sam · DB (Foot)IR
Ja'Quinden Jackson · RB (Undisclosed)IR
Micah Morris · G (Shoulder)Questionable
Eli Stowers · TE (Hamstring)Questionable
Markel Bell · OT (Thumb)Questionable
Cooper DeJean · DB (Groin)Questionable
Byron Young · DL (Shoulder)Questionable
Jonathan Jones · DB (Shoulder)Questionable
Jonathan Greenard · DE (Pectoral)PUP
Tucker Large · DB (Undisclosed)PUP

WASseason form · league percentilePHI

50
off EPA/play
62
6
def EPA/play
72
75
success rate
50
28
pass over expected
50
28
explosive pass rate
28
94
explosive rush rate
66
41
sacks allowed/dropback
53

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	WAS	PHI	WAS	PHI
off EPA/play	-.077	.054	.008	.026
def EPA/play	.146	-.115	.143	-.075
success rate	.427	.450	.457	.430
pass over expected	-8.1	-5.3	-4.4	-2.9
explosive pass rate	.040	.025	.042	.042
explosive rush rate	.071	.054	.061	.052
sacks allowed/dropback	.059

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

latestSep 1 · -4.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Commanders vs. Eagles

bid: 31¢
ask: 34¢
24h vol: $273

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Eagles (-1.5)

bid: 61¢
ask: 67¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Eagles (-3.5)

bid: 54¢
ask: 56¢
24h vol: $92

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Eagles (-4.5)

bid: 50¢
ask: 52¢
24h vol: $68

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Eagles (-6.5)

bid: 41¢
ask: 46¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Eagles (-7.5)

bid: 34¢
ask: 41¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$66,216
Over$44,757
Eagles$33,247
Commanders$27,259

order book

Commanders

bids

31¢$96

30¢$1,154

29¢$1,073

28¢$1,008

27¢$432

asks

34¢$1,166

35¢$1,440

36¢$1,800

37¢$740

Eagles

bids

66¢$2,263

65¢$2,674

64¢$3,200

63¢$1,260

62¢$620

asks

69¢$213

70¢$2,692

71¢$2,627

72¢$2,592

73¢$1,168