Saints @ Lions · Week 1

2026 · Week 1 · Sep 13, 17:00 UTC · Ford Field

Saints

6–11 · 9–8 ATS · 5–12 O/U('25)

Lions

9–8 · 8–9 ATS · 10–7 O/U('25)

spread · DET: -7
total: 50.5
fair ml: 73¢ home
books: 59
open: -7 / 49.5

on the key number 7

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Detroit Lions	New Orleans Saints	updated
Pinnaclesharp ref	-319	+265	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Bally Bet	-345	+265	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Bet Right	-323	+245	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
BetAnything	-310	+250	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Betclic (FR)	-333	+240	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
Betfair	-333	+275	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	-333	+275	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	-333	+275	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
PointsBet (AU)	-278	+220	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Unibet (SE)	-335	+275	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -7.0

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

player	line	over	under	books
Jared Goff	1.5	-192	+150	4
Tyler Shough	1.5	+139	-170	4

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

NOseason form · league percentileDET

19
off EPA/play
84
69
def EPA/play
53
19
success rate
69
41
pass over expected
22
6
explosive pass rate
94
6
explosive rush rate
34
34
sacks allowed/dropback
47

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	NO	DET	NO	DET
off EPA/play	.050	.054	-.085	.081
def EPA/play	-.171	.020	-.059	-.006
success rate	.425	.425	.418	.452
pass over expected	-.360	-1.5	-3.4	-4.8
explosive pass rate	.043	.076	.034	.063
explosive rush rate	.035	.024	.032	.042
sacks allowed/dropback	.093

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Indoors — Ford Field (dome). Weather is not a factor.

Missing players

Alvin Kamara · RB (Knee)33 rec, 186 yds; 471 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
Devin Neal · RB (Hamstring)17 rec, 104 yds; 206 rush ydsmed impactIR
Mason Tipton · WR (Groin)11 rec, 76 yds; 18 rush ydslow impactPUP
Ty Chandler · RB (Knee)3 rec, 11 yds; 47 rush yds

Polymarket

Saints vs. Lions

bid: 25¢
ask: 26¢
24h vol: $1

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Lions (-1.5)

bid: 69¢
ask: 74¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Lions (-3.5)

bid: 61¢
ask: 64¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Lions (-4.5)

bid: 57¢
ask: 61¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Lions (-6.5)

bid: 53¢
ask: 54¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Lions (-7.5)

bid: 44¢
ask: 48¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$45,136
Over$41,263
Lions$30,131
Saints$22,349

order book

Saints

bids

25¢$153

24¢$888

23¢$821

22¢$660

20¢$320

asks

26¢$17

27¢$845

28¢$1,036

29¢$1,013

recent trades · 9 captured

Hefty-Denbuy Lions 76¢ × 1
Cute-Pomegranatebuy Lions 77¢ × 22
Cute-Pomegranatebuy Lions 76¢ × 91
Infinite-Alphabuy Lions 76¢ × 1
Small-Whalebuy Saints 25¢ × 59
Imaginary-Explorerbuy Saints 25¢ × 4
Remorseful-Acidbuy Lions 77¢ × 1
Married-Fenbuy Lions 75¢ × 147
Married-Fenbuy Saints 27¢ × 147

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

34 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 17–17(50%)
over rate: 68%
avg margin: 8.7
avg total: 56.7

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
TB @ LA 2025	+7	49.5	+27	41	fav	under
TB @ DET 2024	+7.5	51.5	-4	36	dog	under
TB @ DET 2023	+6	49.5	+8	54	fav

Head to head

DET leads 7–613 meetings since 1999

2023-12-03DET @ NO33-28DET won
2020-10-04NO @ DET35-29NO won
2017-10-15DET @ NO38-52NO won
2016-12-04DET @ NO28-13DET won
2015-12-21DET @ NO35-27DET won
2014-10-19NO @ DET23-24DET won
2012-01-07DET @ NO28-45NO won
2011-12-04DET @ NO17-31NO won

← All games

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

52 books · vig removed

Fair: Lions 73¢ / Saints 27¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

spread · -7

27 books · vig removed

Fair: Lions 50¢ / Saints 50¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

total · 50.5

28 books · vig removed

Fair: Over 49¢ / Under 51¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Moliki Matavao · TE (Knee)2 rec, 10 ydslow impactIR

Rejzohn Wright · CB (Hip)IR

David Long · CB (Undisclosed)IR

Jordyn Tyson · WR (Hamstring)IR

Barry Wesley · OL (Undisclosed)IR

Jaylan Ford · LB (Undisclosed)IR

Dillon Radunz · OL (Knee - ACL)IR

Michael Heldman · DE (Undisclosed)IR

Bryan Bresee · DT (Knee - ACL)IR

Chris Rumph · LB (Ankle)Questionable

Pete Werner · LB (Groin)Questionable

Quincy Riley · CB (Groin)Questionable

Lorenzo Styles · DB (Calf)Questionable

John Ridgeway · DL (Back)Questionable

Oscar Delp · TE (Hamstring)Questionable

Cameron Jordan · DE (Hamstring)Questionable

Nick Saldiveri · OL (Knee)PUP

DET

Sam LaPorta · TE (Hip)40 rec, 489 ydshigh impactQuestionable
Isiah Pacheco · RB (Knee - MCL)19 rec, 101 yds; 462 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
Cade Mays · OL (Wrist)IR
Payton Turner · DE (Back)IR
Damone Clark · LB (Undisclosed)IR
Kendrick Law · WR (Knee - ACL)IR
Ennis Rakestraw · DB (Upper Body)Questionable
Seth McLaughlin · OL (Concussion)Questionable
Malcolm Rodriguez · LB (Ankle)Questionable
Mekhi Wingo · DT (Head)Questionable
Jimmy Rolder · LB (Leg)Questionable
Derrick Moore · DE (Groin)Questionable
D.J. Reed · CB (Groin)Questionable
Brian Branch · DB (Achilles)PUP
Kerby Joseph · DB (Knee)PUP
Giovanni Manu · OL (Knee)PUP

NOseason form · league percentileDET

19
off EPA/play
84
69
def EPA/play
53
19
success rate
69
41
pass over expected
22
6
explosive pass rate
94
6
explosive rush rate
34
34
sacks allowed/dropback
47

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	NO	DET	NO	DET
off EPA/play	.050	.054	-.085	.081
def EPA/play	-.171	.020	-.059	-.006
success rate	.425	.425	.418	.452
pass over expected	-.360	-1.5	-3.4	-4.8
explosive pass rate	.043	.076	.034	.063
explosive rush rate	.035	.024	.032	.042
sacks allowed/dropback	.093

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

latestSep 1 · -7.0

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Saints vs. Lions

bid: 25¢
ask: 26¢
24h vol: $1

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Lions (-1.5)

bid: 69¢
ask: 74¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Lions (-3.5)

bid: 61¢
ask: 64¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Lions (-4.5)

bid: 57¢
ask: 61¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Lions (-6.5)

bid: 53¢
ask: 54¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Lions (-7.5)

bid: 44¢
ask: 48¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$45,136
Over$41,263
Lions$30,131
Saints$22,349

order book

Saints

bids

25¢$153

24¢$888

23¢$821

22¢$660

20¢$320

asks

26¢$17

27¢$845

28¢$1,036

29¢$1,013

recent trades · 9 captured

Hefty-Denbuy Lions 76¢ × 1
Cute-Pomegranatebuy Lions 77¢ × 22
Cute-Pomegranatebuy Lions 76¢ × 91
Infinite-Alphabuy Lions 76¢ × 1
Small-Whalebuy Saints 25¢ × 59
Imaginary-Explorerbuy Saints 25¢ × 4
Remorseful-Acidbuy Lions 77¢ × 1
Married-Fenbuy Lions 75¢ × 147
Married-Fenbuy Saints 27¢ × 147

Lions

bids

74¢$48

73¢$2,284

72¢$2,664

71¢$2,480

70¢$490

asks

75¢$459

76¢$2,811

77¢$2,747

78¢$2,340

80¢$1,280