Dolphins @ Raiders · Week 1

2026 · Week 1 · Sep 13, 20:25 UTC · Allegiant Stadium

Dolphins

7–10 · 8–9 ATS · 10–7 O/U('25)

Raiders

3–14 · 7–10 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

spread · LV: -3.5
total: 40.5
fair ml: 63¢ home
books: 59
open: -3.5 / 40.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Las Vegas Raiders	Miami Dolphins	updated
Pinnaclesharp ref	-191	+166	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Bally Bet	-195	+160	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Bet Right	-196	+158	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
BetAnything	-195	+165	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Betclic (FR)	-208	+155	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
Betfair	-189	+180	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	-189	+180	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	-189	+180	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
BetMGM	-200	+160	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Marathon Bet	-169	+133	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -3.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

player	line	over	under	books
Kirk Cousins	1.5	+142	-180	2
Malik Willis	0.5	-187	+162	2

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

MIAseason form · league percentileLV

38
off EPA/play
3
19
def EPA/play
50
22
success rate
3
12
pass over expected
56
56
explosive pass rate
9
84
explosive rush rate
3
34
sacks allowed/dropback
3

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	MIA	LV	MIA	LV
off EPA/play	-.025	-.242	-.018	-.228
def EPA/play	.107	.003	.086	.014
success rate	.431	.323	.419	.369
pass over expected	-6.9	-5.1	-5.6	-1.6
explosive pass rate	.055	.026	.046	.037
explosive rush rate	.056	.026	.058	.032
sacks allowed/dropback	.075

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Indoors — Allegiant Stadium (dome). Weather is not a factor.

Missing players

MIA

Ollie Gordon · RB (Undisclosed)7 rec, 32 yds; 199 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
Ben Sims · TE (Undisclosed)3 rec, 30 ydslow impactQuestionable
Kenneth Grant · DL (Leg)IR
Rene Konga · DL (Undisclosed)IR

Polymarket

Dolphins vs. Raiders

bid: 35¢
ask: 36¢
24h vol: $1,500

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Raiders (-1.5)

bid: 57¢
ask: 64¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Raiders (-3.5)

bid: 48¢
ask: 49¢
24h vol: $70

Spread: Raiders (-4.5)

bid: 45¢
ask: 47¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Raiders (-6.5)

bid: 35¢
ask: 41¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Dolphins vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5

bid: 54¢
ask: 60¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$45,379
Over$30,604
Raiders$26,877
Dolphins$23,353

order book

Dolphins

bids

35¢$1,410

34¢$1,291

33¢$1,181

31¢$186

30¢$510

asks

36¢$569

37¢$1,276

38¢$1,959

39¢$1,338

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

36 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 13–23(36%)
over rate: 56%
avg margin: -0.1
avg total: 45.3

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
SF @ HOU 2025	+2.5	41.5	+11	41	fav	under
TEN @ LV 2025	+3.5	41.5	+10	30	fav	under
CIN @ MIN 2025	+3	41.5	+38	58

Head to head

MIA leads 3–14 meetings since 1999

2024-11-17LV @ MIA19-34MIA won
2023-11-19LV @ MIA13-20MIA won
2021-09-26MIA @ LV28-31LV won
2020-12-26MIA @ LV26-25MIA won

← All games

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

52 books · vig removed

Fair: Raiders 63¢ / Dolphins 37¢ — best price: Dolphins at betfair_ex_eu +2.9% above fair.

fairworsebetterbetfair_ex_eu

spread · -3.5

39 books · vig removed

Fair: Raiders 50¢ / Dolphins 50¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

total · 40.5

26 books · vig removed

Fair: Over 50¢ / Under 50¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Trey Moore · LB (Ankle)

Carter Warren · OL (Undisclosed)IR

Cole Turner · TE (Undisclosed)IR

Jacob Rodriguez · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable

Ronnie Harrison · DB (Hamstring)Questionable

Will Kacmarek · TE (Undisclosed)Questionable

Zach Sieler · DT (Undisclosed)Questionable

Darrell Baker · CB (Undisclosed)PUP

Storm Duck · CB (Knee)PUP

Ashton Jeanty · RB (Knee)55 rec, 346 yds; 975 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Dont'e Thornton · WR (Undisclosed)10 rec, 135 ydslow impactIR
Carter Runyon · TE (Undisclosed)1 rec, 3 ydslow impactIR
Corey Rucker · WR (Undisclosed)IR
Keyron Crawford · DE (Ankle)IR
Chase Roberts · WR (Undisclosed)IR
Brennan Jackson · DE (Undisclosed)IR
Chigozie Anusiem · CB (Knee)IR
Justin Shorter · WR (Undisclosed)IR
Chris Collier · RB (Undisclosed)IR

MIAseason form · league percentileLV

38
off EPA/play
3
19
def EPA/play
50
22
success rate
3
12
pass over expected
56
56
explosive pass rate
9
84
explosive rush rate
3
34
sacks allowed/dropback
3

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	MIA	LV	MIA	LV
off EPA/play	-.025	-.242	-.018	-.228
def EPA/play	.107	.003	.086	.014
success rate	.431	.323	.419	.369
pass over expected	-6.9	-5.1	-5.6	-1.6
explosive pass rate	.055	.026	.046	.037
explosive rush rate	.056	.026	.058	.032
sacks allowed/dropback	.075

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

latestSep 1 · -3.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Dolphins vs. Raiders

bid: 35¢
ask: 36¢
24h vol: $1,500

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Raiders (-1.5)

bid: 57¢
ask: 64¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Raiders (-3.5)

bid: 48¢
ask: 49¢
24h vol: $70

Spread: Raiders (-4.5)

bid: 45¢
ask: 47¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Raiders (-6.5)

bid: 35¢
ask: 41¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Dolphins vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5

bid: 54¢
ask: 60¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$45,379
Over$30,604
Raiders$26,877
Dolphins$23,353

order book

Dolphins

bids

35¢$1,410

34¢$1,291

33¢$1,181

31¢$186

30¢$510

asks

36¢$569

37¢$1,276

38¢$1,959

39¢$1,338

Raiders

bids

64¢$1,011

63¢$2,173

62¢$3,197

61¢$2,092

59¢$708

asks

65¢$2,618

66¢$2,506

67¢$2,399

69¢$414

70¢$1,190