Bears @ Panthers · Week 1

2026 · Week 1 · Sep 13, 17:00 UTC · Bank of America Stadium

Bears

12–7 · 11–7 ATS · 9–10 O/U('25)

Panthers

8–10 · 11–7 ATS · 8–10 O/U('25)

spread · CAR: +2.5
total: 47.5
fair ml: 42¢ home
books: 59
open: +2.5 / 47.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:30 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	updated
Pinnaclesharp ref	+132	-149	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Bally Bet	+128	-155	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Bet Right	+120	-149	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
BetAnything	+140	-160	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Betclic (FR)	+120	-161	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
Betfair	+128	-154	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	+128	-154	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	+128	-154	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	+120	-149	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Marathon Bet	+111	-141	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · 2.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

player	line	over	under	books
Bryce Young	1.5	+130	-146	5
Caleb Williams	1.5	-109	-107	4

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

CHIseason form · league percentileCAR

75
off EPA/play
22
47
def EPA/play
25
72
success rate
38
31
pass over expected
19
84
explosive pass rate
25
81
explosive rush rate
34
97
sacks allowed/dropback
50

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	CHI	CAR	CHI	CAR
off EPA/play	.103	-.079	.073	-.053
def EPA/play	.149	.056	.020	.080
success rate	.451	.406	.454	.429
pass over expected	-3.4	.294	-4.0	-5.2
explosive pass rate	.074	.044	.058	.042
explosive rush rate	.040	.045	.057	.044
sacks allowed/dropback	.009

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

temperature: 31°C (feels 34°C)
wind: 8 km/h, gusts 10 · 99°
precipitation: 0 mm
humidity: 47%
cloud cover: 81%

source forecast

Missing players

CHI

Kyle Monangai · RB (Knee)23 rec, 222 yds; 846 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Luther Burden · WR (Lower Body)53 rec, 718 yds; 33 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Brittain Brown · RB (Undisclosed)37 rush ydslow impactIR
Ray-Ray McCloud · WR (Undisclosed)

Polymarket

Bears vs. Panthers

bid: 58¢
ask: 60¢
24h vol: $94

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Bears (-1.5)

bid: 53¢
ask: 57¢
24h vol: $38

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Bears (-2.5)

bid: 53¢
ask: 56¢
24h vol: $654

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Bears (-3.5)

bid: 42¢
ask: 44¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bears (-4.5)

bid: 38¢
ask: 44¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Bears vs. Panthers: O/U 42.5

bid: 57¢
ask: 72¢
24h vol: —

▲ +9.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$29,846
Over$29,156
Bears$25,912
Panthers$16,003

order book

Bears

bids

53¢$42

52¢$2,534

51¢$128

50¢$1,000

49¢$1,323

asks

55¢$88

56¢$639

57¢$1,140

58¢$1,350

recent trades · 60 captured

Obvious-Geyser-Cutletbuy Under 53¢ × 179
Willing-Malnutritionbuy Panthers 45¢ × 230
Obvious-Geyser-Cutletbuy Bears 55¢ × 203
Favorite-Flaxbuy Panthers 42¢ × 13
Illiterate-Fundraisingbuy Bears 59¢ × 13
Firm-Workbuy Bears 59¢ × 13
Minty-Stimulationbuy Panthers 42¢ × 13
Definitive-Limbbuy Panthers 42¢ × 21
Loathsome-Valuebuy Bears 59¢ × 21
buy Bears 55¢ × 38
sell Bears 52¢ × 19
Trim-Humanbuy Under 53¢ × 199

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

92 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 57–31–4(65%)
over rate: 52%
avg margin: -4.3
avg total: 48.8

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
CIN @ MIA 2025	-3.5	48.5	-24	66	fav	over
SF @ NYG 2025	-2.5	47.5	-10	58	fav	over
SEA @ WAS 2025	-2.5	47.5	-24	52

Head to head

CHI leads 8–412 meetings since 1999

2024-10-06CAR @ CHI10-36CHI won
2023-11-09CAR @ CHI13-16CHI won
2020-10-18CHI @ CAR23-16CHI won
2017-10-22CAR @ CHI3-17CHI won
2014-10-05CHI @ CAR24-31CAR won
2012-10-28CAR @ CHI22-23CHI won
2011-10-02CAR @ CHI29-34CHI won
2010-10-10CHI @ CAR23-6CHI won

← All games

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

51 books · vig removed

Fair: Panthers 42¢ / Bears 58¢ — best price: Panthers at betanysports +1.0% above fair.

fairworsebetterbetanysports

spread · 2.5

26 books · vig removed

Fair: Panthers 48¢ / Bears 52¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

total · 47.5

34 books · vig removed

Fair: Over 50¢ / Under 50¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Tony Fields · LB (Undisclosed)IR

Nikola Kalinic · TE (Knee)IR

Dallis Flowers · CB (Undisclosed)IR

Jonathan Garvin · LB (Undisclosed)IR

Jaylon Jones · CB (Undisclosed)IR

Coby Bryant · DB (Knee)Out

Dontae Manning · CB (Undisclosed)IR

Nephi Sewell · LB (Concussion)IR

Ruben Hyppolite · LB (Shoulder)IR

Elijah Hicks · DB (Shin)Questionable

Xavier Woods · DB (Groin)Questionable

Austin Booker · DL (Groin)Questionable

Keyshaun Elliott · LB (Undisclosed)Questionable

Tyrique Stevenson · CB (Undisclosed)Questionable

Jaylon Johnson · DB (Arm)Questionable

Beanie Bishop · CB (Suspension)Sus

Kyler Gordon · DB (Undisclosed)PUP

Noah Sewell · LB (Achilles)PUP

Shemar Turner · DE (Knee - ACL)PUP

CAR

Chuba Hubbard · RB (Hamstring)32 rec, 236 yds; 557 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Xavier Legette · WR (Lower Body)36 rec, 371 ydsmed impactQuestionable
Trevor Etienne · RB (Ankle)3 rec, 13 yds; 98 rush ydslow impactIR
Bam Martin-Scott · LB (Hamstring)IR
Chris Brazzell · WR (Knee)IR
Tyrek Funderburk · CB (Undisclosed)IR
Nic Scourton · DL (Knee - ACL)IR
Akayleb Evans · DB (Neck)Questionable
Devin Lloyd · LB (Knee)Questionable
Haynes King · QB (Hamstring)Questionable
Jaelan Phillips · LB (Arm)Questionable
Derrick Brown · DT (Knee)Questionable
Taylor Moton · T (Illness)PUP
Tershawn Wharton · DT (Neck)PUP
Ikem Ekwonu · T (Knee)PUP

CHIseason form · league percentileCAR

75
off EPA/play
22
47
def EPA/play
25
72
success rate
38
31
pass over expected
19
84
explosive pass rate
25
81
explosive rush rate
34
97
sacks allowed/dropback
50

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	CHI	CAR	CHI	CAR
off EPA/play	.103	-.079	.073	-.053
def EPA/play	.149	.056	.020	.080
success rate	.451	.406	.454	.429
pass over expected	-3.4	.294	-4.0	-5.2
explosive pass rate	.074	.044	.058	.042
explosive rush rate	.040	.045	.057	.044
sacks allowed/dropback	.009

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

latestSep 1 · 2.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Bears vs. Panthers

bid: 58¢
ask: 60¢
24h vol: $94

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Bears (-1.5)

bid: 53¢
ask: 57¢
24h vol: $38

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Bears (-2.5)

bid: 53¢
ask: 56¢
24h vol: $654

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Bears (-3.5)

bid: 42¢
ask: 44¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bears (-4.5)

bid: 38¢
ask: 44¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Bears vs. Panthers: O/U 42.5

bid: 57¢
ask: 72¢
24h vol: —

▲ +9.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$29,846
Over$29,156
Bears$25,912
Panthers$16,003

order book

Bears

bids

53¢$42

52¢$2,534

51¢$128

50¢$1,000

49¢$1,323

asks

55¢$88

56¢$639

57¢$1,140

58¢$1,350

recent trades · 60 captured

Obvious-Geyser-Cutletbuy Under 53¢ × 179
Willing-Malnutritionbuy Panthers 45¢ × 230
Obvious-Geyser-Cutletbuy Bears 55¢ × 203
Favorite-Flaxbuy Panthers 42¢ × 13
Illiterate-Fundraisingbuy Bears 59¢ × 13
Firm-Workbuy Bears 59¢ × 13
Minty-Stimulationbuy Panthers 42¢ × 13
Definitive-Limbbuy Panthers 42¢ × 21
Loathsome-Valuebuy Bears 59¢ × 21
buy Bears 55¢ × 38
sell Bears 52¢ × 19
Trim-Humanbuy Under 53¢ × 199

Panthers

bids

45¢$72

44¢$502

43¢$860

42¢$978

41¢$262

asks

47¢$38

48¢$2,340

49¢$123

50¢$1,000

51¢$1,377