Titans @ Ravens · Week 4

2026 · Week 4 · Oct 4, 17:00 UTC · M&T Bank Stadium

Titans

3–14 · 7–10 ATS · 11–6 O/U('25)

Ravens

8–9 · 6–11 ATS · 11–6 O/U('25)

spread · BAL: -8.5
total: 47.5
fair ml: —
books: 4
open: -8.5 / 47.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Baltimore Ravens	Tennessee Titans	updated
Betr	-400	+300	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-425	+330	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-375	+295	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

Not enough books at a shared line for a consensus yet.

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -8.8

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

TENseason form · league percentileBAL

9
off EPA/play
69
12
def EPA/play
34
9
success rate
59
34
pass over expected
3
22
explosive pass rate
66
22
explosive rush rate
97
22
sacks allowed/dropback
16

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	TEN	BAL	TEN	BAL
off EPA/play	-.069	.166	-.167	.037
def EPA/play	.069	.070	.106	.023
success rate	.389	.465	.373	.443
pass over expected	-8.6	-18.7	-3.9	-8.5
explosive pass rate	.042	.047	.041	.049
explosive rush rate	.045	.093	.041	.077
sacks allowed/dropback	.043

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

TEN

Wan'Dale Robinson · WR (Head)92 rec, 1014 yds; 5 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Mitchell Trubisky · QB (Biceps)6 rush yds; 313 pass ydslow impactQuestionable
Jaren Kanak · TE (Pectoral)IR
Joshua Williams · CB (Pectoral)IR

Polymarket

Titans vs. Ravens

bid: 6¢
ask: 27¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Ravens (-6.5)

bid: 43¢
ask: 78¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Ravens (-7.5)

bid: 40¢
ask: 75¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Ravens (-8.5)

bid: 41¢
ask: 68¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Ravens (-9.5)

bid: 33¢
ask: 68¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Ravens (-10.5)

bid: 28¢
ask: 63¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

54 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 27–27(50%)
over rate: 56%
avg margin: 9.0
avg total: 50.2

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
CAR @ SF 2025	+7.5	48.5	+11	29	fav	under
DEN @ BUF 2024	+7.5	48.5	+24	38	fav	under
DEN @ BAL 2024	+9	46.5	+31	51

Head to head

BAL leads 12–921 meetings since 1999

2023-10-15BAL @ TEN24-16BAL won
2021-01-10BAL @ TEN20-13BAL won
2020-11-22TEN @ BAL30-24TEN won
2020-01-11TEN @ BAL28-12TEN won
2018-10-14BAL @ TEN21-0BAL won
2017-11-05BAL @ TEN20-23TEN won
2014-11-09TEN @ BAL7-21BAL won
2011-09-18BAL @ TEN13-26TEN won

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