Jaguars @ Bengals · Week 4

2026 · Week 4 · Oct 4, 17:00 UTC · Paycor Stadium

Jaguars

13–5 · 12–6 ATS · 10–8 O/U('25)

Bengals

6–11 · 8–9 ATS · 9–8 O/U('25)

spread · CIN: -2.5
total: 51.5
fair ml: —
books: 4
open: -2.5 / 51.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Cincinnati Bengals	Jacksonville Jaguars	updated
Betr	-149	+120	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-170	+130	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-135	+114	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

Not enough books at a shared line for a consensus yet.

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -2.8

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

JAXseason form · league percentileCIN

62
off EPA/play
34
88
def EPA/play
9
62
success rate
66
88
pass over expected
84
72
explosive pass rate
44
56
explosive rush rate
12
59
sacks allowed/dropback
69

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	JAX	CIN	JAX	CIN
off EPA/play	.133	.082	.033	-.023
def EPA/play	-.100	.047	-.097	.122
success rate	.467	.505	.448	.452
pass over expected	6.3	1.6	1.8	1.6
explosive pass rate	.073	.056	.053	.044
explosive rush rate	.068	.021	.050	.034
sacks allowed/dropback	.050

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

JAX

Brian Thomas · WR (Shoulder)50 rec, 728 yds; 21 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
LeQuint Allen · RB (Undisclosed)11 rec, 63 yds; 97 rush ydslow impactQuestionable
Zach Durfee · DE (Upper Body)IR
Patrick Mekari · OL (Back)IR

Polymarket

Jaguars vs. Bengals

bid: 38¢
ask: 49¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Bengals (-1.5)

bid: 26¢
ask: 56¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bengals (-2.5)

bid: 31¢
ask: 52¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.5% today

Spread: Bengals (-3.5)

bid: 20¢
ask: 49¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bengals (-4.5)

bid: 17¢
ask: 47¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bengals (-6.5)

bid: 11¢
ask: 42¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

34 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 20–14(59%)
over rate: 41%
avg margin: 6.5
avg total: 49.6

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
BUF @ JAX 2025	+1.5	51.5	-3	51	dog	under
CHI @ SF 2025	+3.5	51.5	+4	80	fav	over
IND @ KC 2025	+3.5	50.5	+3	43	dog

Head to head

Series tied 9–918 meetings since 1999

2025-09-14JAX @ CIN27-31CIN won
2023-12-04CIN @ JAX34-31CIN won
2021-09-30JAX @ CIN21-24CIN won
2020-10-04JAX @ CIN25-33CIN won
2019-10-20JAX @ CIN27-17JAX won
2017-11-05CIN @ JAX7-23JAX won
2014-11-02JAX @ CIN23-33CIN won
2012-09-30CIN @ JAX27-10CIN won

← All games