Packers @ Buccaneers · Week 4

2026 · Week 4 · Oct 4, 17:00 UTC · Raymond James Stadium

Packers

9–8–1 · 6–12 ATS · 10–8 O/U('25)

Buccaneers

8–9 · 5–12 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

spread · TB: +1.5
total: 47.5
fair ml: —
books: 4
open: +1.5 / 47.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:30 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Green Bay Packers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	updated
Betr	-122	-101	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-120	-110	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-125	+105	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

Not enough books at a shared line for a consensus yet.

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · 1.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

GBseason form · league percentileTB

94
off EPA/play
47
31
def EPA/play
38
94
success rate
31
41
pass over expected
47
91
explosive pass rate
78
88
explosive rush rate
38
66
sacks allowed/dropback
59

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	GB	TB	GB	TB
off EPA/play	.017	.005	.118	-.000
def EPA/play	.139	.085	.025	.022
success rate	.447	.445	.474	.424
pass over expected	-4.0	-5.6	-3.6	-3.3
explosive pass rate	.072	.044	.062	.053
explosive rush rate	.071	.050	.058	.045
sacks allowed/dropback	.090

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

Tucker Kraft · TE (Knee - ACL)32 rec, 489 yds; 3 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Luke Musgrave · TE (Undisclosed)25 rec, 261 ydsmed impactPUP
Savion Williams · WR (Undisclosed)10 rec, 78 yds; 37 rush ydslow impactIR
Collin Oliver · DE (Undisclosed)

Polymarket

Packers vs. Buccaneers

bid: 47¢
ask: 59¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Packers (-0.5)

bid: 30¢
ask: 65¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Packers (-1.5)

bid: 31¢
ask: 58¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Packers (-2.5)

bid: 23¢
ask: 58¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Packers (-3.5)

bid: 20¢
ask: 55¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Packers (-4.5)

bid: 17¢
ask: 52¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

57 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 32–24–1(57%)
over rate: 53%
avg margin: -0.7
avg total: 50.2

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
SF @ NYG 2025	-2.5	47.5	-10	58	fav	over
SEA @ WAS 2025	-2.5	47.5	-24	52	fav	over
SEA @ JAX 2025	-1.5	47.5	-8	32

Head to head

TB leads 10–818 meetings since 1999

2023-12-17TB @ GB34-20TB won
2022-09-25GB @ TB14-12GB won
2021-01-24TB @ GB31-26TB won
2020-10-18GB @ TB10-38TB won
2017-12-03TB @ GB20-26GB won
2014-12-21GB @ TB20-3GB won
2011-11-20TB @ GB26-35GB won
2009-11-08GB @ TB28-38TB won

← All games