Patriots @ Jaguars · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 17:00 UTC · EverBank Stadium

Patriots

17–4 · 14–7 ATS · 12–9 O/U('25)

Jaguars

13–5 · 12–6 ATS · 10–8 O/U('25)

spread · JAX: -1.5
total: 45.5
fair ml: 53¢ home
books: 5
open: -1.5 / 45.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Jacksonville Jaguars	New England Patriots	updated
Bet Right	-122	+102	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	-125	+100	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-131	+100	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-118	-102	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Jaguars 53¢ / Patriots 47¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fair

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -1.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

NEseason form · league percentileJAX

91
off EPA/play
62
78
def EPA/play
88
78
success rate
62
84
pass over expected
88
97
explosive pass rate
72
72
explosive rush rate
56
16
sacks allowed/dropback
59

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	NE	JAX	NE	JAX
off EPA/play	-.076	.133	.104	.033
def EPA/play	-.274	-.100	-.090	-.097
success rate	.422	.467	.464	.448
pass over expected	-.082	6.3	1.6	1.8
explosive pass rate	.059	.073	.066	.053
explosive rush rate	.054	.068	.052	.050
sacks allowed/dropback	.112

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

TreVeyon Henderson · RB (Leg)40 rec, 254 yds; 987 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Julian Hill · TE (Knee)15 rec, 140 ydsmed impactIR
Bryce Baringer · P (Undisclosed)IR
Isaiah Iton · DL (Undisclosed)IR

Polymarket

Patriots vs. Jaguars

bid: 42¢
ask: 53¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)

bid: 36¢
ask: 55¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)

bid: 25¢
ask: 60¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)

bid: 22¢
ask: 57¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)

bid: 19¢
ask: 54¢
24h vol: —

Patriots vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5

bid: 26¢
ask: 78¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

91 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 42–49(46%)
over rate: 50%
avg margin: 0.1
avg total: 45.3

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
BUF @ DEN 2025	+1.5	45.5	+3	63	fav	over
DET @ PHI 2025	+2.5	46.5	+7	25	fav	under
PHI @ GB 2025	+1.5	45.5	-3	17	dog

Head to head

NE leads 9–211 meetings since 1999

2024-10-20NE @ JAX16-32JAX won
2022-01-02JAX @ NE10-50NE won
2018-09-16NE @ JAX20-31JAX won
2018-01-21JAX @ NE20-24NE won
2015-09-27JAX @ NE17-51NE won
2012-12-23NE @ JAX23-16NE won
2009-12-27JAX @ NE7-35NE won
2008-01-12JAX @ NE20-31NE won

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