Vikings @ Buccaneers · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 20:05 UTC · Raymond James Stadium

Vikings

9–8 · 9–8 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

Buccaneers

8–9 · 5–12 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

spread · TB: -1.5
total: 44.5
fair ml: 55¢ home
books: 5
open: -1.5 / 44.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Minnesota Vikings	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	updated
Bet Right	+112	-137	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	+110	-137	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	+115	-145	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	+105	-125	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Buccaneers 55¢ / Vikings 45¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworse

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -2.0

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

MINseason form · league percentileTB

16
off EPA/play
47
91
def EPA/play
38
28
success rate
31
59
pass over expected
47
16
explosive pass rate
78
75
explosive rush rate
38
0
sacks allowed/dropback
59

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	MIN	TB	MIN	TB
off EPA/play	.032	.005	-.135	-.000
def EPA/play	-.298	.085	-.113	.022
success rate	.454	.445	.420	.424
pass over expected	-1.2	-5.6	-1.4	-3.3
explosive pass rate	.036	.044	.040	.053
explosive rush rate	.057	.050	.056	.045
sacks allowed/dropback	.123

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

MIN

J.J. McCarthy · QB (Undisclosed)181 rush yds; 1632 pass ydsmed impactQuestionable
Tyler Batty · DL (Knee - ACL)IR
Taki Taimani · DL (Undisclosed)IR
Jermar Jefferson · RB (Undisclosed)IR
Dontae Fleming · WR (Undisclosed)

Polymarket

Vikings vs. Buccaneers

bid: 40¢
ask: 51¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Buccaneers (-1.5)

bid: 35¢
ask: 54¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.5% today

Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)

bid: 28¢
ask: 51¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.5% today

Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)

bid: 21¢
ask: 48¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)

bid: 18¢
ask: 45¢
24h vol: —

Vikings vs. Buccaneers: O/U 41.5

bid: 31¢
ask: 83¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

91 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 41–50(45%)
over rate: 50%
avg margin: 0.8
avg total: 44.5

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
BUF @ DEN 2025	+1.5	45.5	+3	63	fav	over
PHI @ GB 2025	+1.5	45.5	-3	17	dog	under
CHI @ BAL 2025	+2.5	45.5	+14	46

Head to head

TB leads 10–515 meetings since 1999

2023-09-10TB @ MIN20-17TB won
2020-12-13MIN @ TB14-26TB won
2017-09-24TB @ MIN17-34MIN won
2014-10-26MIN @ TB19-13MIN won
2012-10-25TB @ MIN36-17TB won
2011-09-18TB @ MIN24-20TB won
2008-11-16MIN @ TB13-19TB won
2005-09-11TB @ MIN24-13TB won

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