Raiders @ Saints · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 20:25 UTC · Caesars Superdome

Raiders

3–14 · 7–10 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

Saints

6–11 · 9–8 ATS · 5–12 O/U('25)

spread · NO: -4
total: 41.5
fair ml: 63¢ home
books: 4
open → now: -3.5 → -4

line moved 0.5 toward NO

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Las Vegas Raiders	New Orleans Saints	updated
Bet Right	+160	-196	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	+155	-196	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	+160	-210	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	+154	-185	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Saints 63¢ / Raiders 37¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -3.8

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

LVseason form · league percentileNO

3
off EPA/play
19
50
def EPA/play
69
3
success rate
19
56
pass over expected
41
9
explosive pass rate
6
3
explosive rush rate
6
3
sacks allowed/dropback
34

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	LV	NO	LV	NO
off EPA/play	-.242	.050	-.228	-.085
def EPA/play	.003	-.171	.014	-.059
success rate	.323	.425	.369	.418
pass over expected	-5.1	-.360	-1.6	-3.4
explosive pass rate	.026	.043	.037	.034
explosive rush rate	.026	.035	.032	.032
sacks allowed/dropback	.114

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Indoors — Caesars Superdome (dome). Weather is not a factor.

Missing players

Ashton Jeanty · RB (Knee)55 rec, 346 yds; 975 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Dont'e Thornton · WR (Undisclosed)10 rec, 135 ydslow impactIR
Carter Runyon · TE (Undisclosed)1 rec, 3 ydslow impactIR
Corey Rucker · WR (Undisclosed)

Polymarket

Raiders vs. Saints

bid: 12¢
ask: 43¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Saints (-1.5)

bid: 33¢
ask: 85¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Saints (-3.5)

bid: 45¢
ask: 66¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.5% today

Spread: Saints (-4.5)

bid: 24¢
ask: 76¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Saints (-6.5)

bid: 18¢
ask: 71¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Saints (-7.5)

bid: 15¢
ask: 68¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

38 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 16–22(42%)
over rate: 42%
avg margin: -0.4
avg total: 41.5

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
TEN @ LV 2025	+3.5	41.5	+10	30	fav	under
CIN @ MIN 2025	+3	41.5	+38	58	fav	over
PIT @ ATL 2024	+4	43	-8	28	dog

Head to head

LV leads 2–13 meetings since 1999

2024-12-29LV @ NO25-10LV won
2022-10-30LV @ NO0-24NO won
2020-09-21NO @ LV24-34LV won

← All games

Keyron Crawford · DE (Ankle)IR

Chase Roberts · WR (Undisclosed)IR

Brennan Jackson · DE (Undisclosed)IR

Chigozie Anusiem · CB (Knee)IR

Justin Shorter · WR (Undisclosed)IR

Chris Collier · RB (Undisclosed)IR

Alvin Kamara · RB (Knee)33 rec, 186 yds; 471 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
Devin Neal · RB (Hamstring)17 rec, 104 yds; 206 rush ydsmed impactIR
Mason Tipton · WR (Groin)11 rec, 76 yds; 18 rush ydslow impactPUP
Ty Chandler · RB (Knee)3 rec, 11 yds; 47 rush ydslow impactIR
Moliki Matavao · TE (Knee)2 rec, 10 ydslow impactIR
Rejzohn Wright · CB (Hip)IR
David Long · CB (Undisclosed)IR
Jordyn Tyson · WR (Hamstring)IR
Barry Wesley · OL (Undisclosed)IR
Jaylan Ford · LB (Undisclosed)IR
Dillon Radunz · OL (Knee - ACL)IR
Michael Heldman · DE (Undisclosed)IR
Bryan Bresee · DT (Knee - ACL)IR
Chris Rumph · LB (Ankle)Questionable
Pete Werner · LB (Groin)Questionable
Quincy Riley · CB (Groin)Questionable
Lorenzo Styles · DB (Calf)Questionable
John Ridgeway · DL (Back)Questionable
Oscar Delp · TE (Hamstring)Questionable
Cameron Jordan · DE (Hamstring)Questionable
Nick Saldiveri · OL (Knee)PUP