Bengals @ Steelers · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 17:00 UTC · Acrisure Stadium

Bengals

6–11 · 8–9 ATS · 9–8 O/U('25)

Steelers

10–8 · 9–8 ATS · 10–8 O/U('25)

spread · PIT: +1.5
total: 45.5
fair ml: 47¢ home
books: 5
open: +1.5 / 46.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Cincinnati Bengals	Pittsburgh Steelers	updated
Bet Right	-122	+102	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	-125	+100	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-125	-105	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-125	+105	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Steelers 47¢ / Bengals 53¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · 1.3

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

CINseason form · league percentilePIT

34
off EPA/play
41
9
def EPA/play
41
66
success rate
41
84
pass over expected
69
44
explosive pass rate
31
12
explosive rush rate
47
69
sacks allowed/dropback
69

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	CIN	PIT	CIN	PIT
off EPA/play	.082	-.051	-.023	-.012
def EPA/play	.047	.011	.122	.021
success rate	.505	.419	.452	.430
pass over expected	1.6	-2.4	1.6	-.746
explosive pass rate	.056	.037	.044	.042
explosive rush rate	.021	.058	.034	.046
sacks allowed/dropback	.054

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

CIN

Ja'Marr Chase · WR (Knee)125 rec, 1412 yds; 14 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Ja'Sir Taylor · DB (Undisclosed)IR
Dax Hill · DB (Hamstring)Questionable
Shemar Stewart · DL (Leg)Questionable
Myles Murphy · DL (Undisclosed)Questionable

Polymarket

Bengals vs. Steelers

bid: 47¢
ask: 55¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bengals (-1.5)

bid: 27¢
ask: 51¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.5% today

Spread: Bengals (-2.5)

bid: 16¢
ask: 48¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bengals (-3.5)

bid: 13¢
ask: 45¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Bengals (-4.5)

bid: 10¢
ask: 42¢
24h vol: —

Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5

bid: 38¢
ask: 90¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

38 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 17–20–1(46%)
over rate: 55%
avg margin: -0.1
avg total: 46.1

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
GB @ CHI 2025	-2.5	45.5	+4	58	dog	over
IND @ JAX 2025	-2.5	44.5	+17	55	dog	over
ARI @ SEA 2024	-1	46.5	+10	22	dog	under

Head to head

PIT leads 40–1656 meetings since 1999

2025-11-16CIN @ PIT12-34PIT won
2025-10-16PIT @ CIN31-33CIN won
2025-01-04CIN @ PIT19-17CIN won
2024-12-01PIT @ CIN44-38PIT won
2023-12-23CIN @ PIT11-34PIT won
2023-11-26PIT @ CIN16-10PIT won
2022-11-20CIN @ PIT37-30CIN won
2022-09-11PIT @ CIN23-20PIT won

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