Panthers @ Browns · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 27, 17:00 UTC · Huntington Bank Field

Panthers

8–10 · 11–7 ATS · 8–10 O/U('25)

Browns

5–12 · 8–9 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

spread · CLE: +1.5
total: 39.5
fair ml: 45¢ home
books: 4
open: +1.5 / 39.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Carolina Panthers	Cleveland Browns	updated
Bet Right	-137	+112	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	-137	+110	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	-150	+125	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	-122	+102	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Browns 45¢ / Panthers 55¢ — best price: Browns at williamhill_us +1.4% above fair.

fairworsebetter

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · 2.0

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

CARseason form · league percentileCLE

22
off EPA/play
6
25
def EPA/play
81
38
success rate
0
19
pass over expected
34
25
explosive pass rate
9
34
explosive rush rate
19
50
sacks allowed/dropback
28

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	CAR	CLE	CAR	CLE
off EPA/play	-.079	-.196	-.053	-.196
def EPA/play	.056	-.059	.080	-.092
success rate	.406	.364	.429	.340
pass over expected	.294	-.261	-5.2	-3.9
explosive pass rate	.044	.041	.042	.034
explosive rush rate	.045	.044	.044	.040
sacks allowed/dropback	.040

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

CAR

Chuba Hubbard · RB (Hamstring)32 rec, 236 yds; 557 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Xavier Legette · WR (Lower Body)36 rec, 371 ydsmed impactQuestionable
Trevor Etienne · RB (Ankle)3 rec, 13 yds; 98 rush ydslow impactIR
Bam Martin-Scott · LB (Hamstring)

Polymarket

Panthers vs. Browns

bid: 36¢
ask: 61¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.5% today

Spread: Panthers (-1.5)

bid: 33¢
ask: 55¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Panthers (-2.5)

bid: 24¢
ask: 55¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.5% today

Spread: Panthers (-3.5)

bid: 17¢
ask: 52¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Panthers (-4.5)

bid: 15¢
ask: 50¢
24h vol: —

Panthers vs. Browns: O/U 35.5

bid: 34¢
ask: 86¢
24h vol: —

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

52 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 25–26–1(49%)
over rate: 44%
avg margin: 0.8
avg total: 37.5

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
NO @ TEN 2025	-1.5	39.5	-8	60	fav	over
JAX @ PIT 2023	-2.5	41	-10	30	fav	under
LV @ CHI 2023	-2.5	38.5	+18	42	dog

Head to head

CAR leads 4–37 meetings since 1999

2022-09-11CLE @ CAR26-24CLE won
2018-12-09CAR @ CLE20-26CLE won
2014-12-21CLE @ CAR13-17CAR won
2010-11-28CAR @ CLE23-24CLE won
2006-10-08CLE @ CAR12-20CAR won
2002-12-01CAR @ CLE13-6CAR won
1999-11-21CAR @ CLE31-17CAR won

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